Game Preview: Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves (2/28/2024)

When: Friday, February 28th, 7:00 PM CST

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

How to Watch/Stream: Bally Sports Southeast

Coming up on their last game of February, it’s fair to say that the Grizzlies have had better months. Their record of 2-9 in the month of love would be the worst in the league, but luckily, the travesties known as the Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs helped us out.

While most of the month was consumed by a losing streak the stretched into January, the majority of those games were close. In fact, five of the Grizzlies nine losses this month were by single digits, even if none of them were one possession games. Additionally, the two wins in the month have come within the Grizzlies last five games, so you can say the team is 2-3 in their last five (slightly better). While the expectation was to generally struggle, the performances as of late have begun to demoralize even the most optimistic of fans. 

Back to back games with the team failing to reach double digits is rough, but when coupled with the fact that the team scored just 40 points heading into halftime, you’ve got yourself a new season low-point. Other highlights from the game include a 38.7% shooting percentage for the team, 26.9% from 3, and GG Jackson and Ziaire Williams shooting a combined 4-21.

Against a solid opponent, maybe these laughably bad stats would be stomached the same way this entire season has, but something about it coming from Kevin Ollie-coached Brooklyn Nets made it even more unbearable to watch.

The Timberwolves are tied for the one-seed with the OKC Thunder at the time of writing this and are 7-3 in their last ten games. The team holds the 3rd best Net Rating in the league, only behind the Celtics and the Thunder, outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per 100 possessions. The primary reason behind their success is their defense, as shown by their league-best Defensive Rating, only allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions.

While their offensive rating lags behind a bit at 17th in the league, there’s no doubt that the talent of the individuals within their offense can easily allow them to outperform this mark. While the team only scores 115.8 points per 100 possessions, that has a lot to do with the intentionally slowed down pace the team plays with. With their starting 5 revolving around two plodding centers in Rudy Gobert and KAT, it’s not surprising that T-Wolves rank 25th in the league in pace, averaging only 97.6 possessions per game.

With the Wolves recent success and lack of for the Grizzlies, one would assume a fairly straightforward result, but if we know one thing about this team, it’s that they’re never what you expect, so let’s zoom in on some key details ahead of today’s game.

Long-Term Lamar?

When the Grizzlies acquired Lamar Stevens as an afterthought in the Xavier Tillman trade to Boston, I didn’t think much of it. In fact, I thought so little of it that I put in writing that Lamar would struggle to see the floor over fellow new acquisition Yuta Watanabe and the other members of Memphis’ boneless wings.

In fact, I even doubled down on my personal twitter, asking Grizzlies fans why they were so excited about having another non-spacing wing to clog up the lanes on offense. However, while I was correct in the fact that Lamar isn’t a knockdown shooter, I was wrong in forecasting the role he would play for this team.

Lamar Stevens was the Grizzlies’ leading scorer last night — 17 points (8-9 FG), 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and this block. All in 23 minutes.pic.twitter.com/98aVfrxr6E

— Noa Dalzell 🏀 (@NoaDalzellNBA) February 27, 2024

On offense, Lamar’s work in the mid-range has been a joy to watch, providing a style of play that is slowly being phased out of the game. Stevens is keenly aware of his shortcomings as a shooter and doesn’t force attempts from beyond the arc, instead opting to do most of his work in the mid-range. I love the versatility he brings as a screen-and-roll player, acting as a playmaker on the short roll. 

However, if the former Penn State man gets a long-term deal in Memphis, it will be because of his defensive versatility and motor. With the foot speed to stay in front of smaller, quicker guards, he’s more than capable of holding his own on the perimeter, but he’s equally comfortable taking an assignment in the post, thanks largely to his stout build.

If that wasn’t enough, Stevens also provides help for one of the Grizzlies greatest weaknesses: rebounding. Despite measuring in at just 6’6, Stevens has averaged just under 7 rebounds per game over his last five with the Grizzlies. Had these outings been more than the 23 MPG average he was granted, the forward would easily gobble up more. His performances of late have been encouraging, and if he keeps it up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a deep-bench option next year.

Re-Visiting the Gobert Trade

Now that we’ve had nearly a season and a half to allow the various participants in the Rudy Gobert trade to settle in, I thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to go back and review the trade holistically with hindsight.

OTD in Utah Jazz History, the Rudy Gobert trade became official

MIN received

Rudy Gobert

UTA received

Walker Kessler
Jarred Vanderbilt
Malik Beasley
Leandro Bolmaro
Patrick Beverley
2023 FRP
2025 FRP
2027 FRP
2029 FRP
2026 First-Round Swap pic.twitter.com/Lj6ngTZ60h

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) July 6, 2023

The Jazz went on to parlay Vanderbilt, Beasley, and others in a trade with the Lakers that saw them receive future draft considerations, the bones of the deal remains the same regardless. At the time and in the days after, this trade was seen as a massive, massive overpay. There were even a large number of people who labeled it as the worst trade in league history.

Those claims were made even more frequently once the Timberwolves struggled throughout the season, and the team looked like it would never quite adjust to the oddity of playing around two traditional centers. To put the cherry on top, Walker Kessler looked like one of the best up-and-coming rim protectors in the entire league, and the Jazz, who were projected to tank, were nearly as competitive as the Timberwolves.

Rudy Gobert remains the favorite to win DPOY, per @BovadaOfficial

Rudy Gobert -800
Victor Wembanyama +1300
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1500
Jarrett Allen +1500
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1500
Bam Adebayo +3300
Anthony Davis +3500
Chet Holmgren +5000
Derrick White +5000
Jrue Holiday… pic.twitter.com/mTjujIYtDz

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) February 27, 2024

Fast forward a year, and the entire narrative has been flipped. Rudy Gobert is the odds on favorite to be named DPOY, and Minnesota is in the driver’s seat to be the Western Conference’s one seed. Now, a large portion of those who were claiming Gobert was a part of the worst trade in league history are being made to eat their words. Or are they?

Truthfully, I will always believe it was an overpay. To give up that many players and picks for a player, it needs to be a homerun. Not only is Gobert not a home run, but he is a player with obvious flaws and limitations that need to be accounted for. Quite simply, the Wolves gave up an amount of assets that should bring an MVP-candidate back.

As previously mentioned, the perception of this trade has been swung up and down by the performances of the team. While this is unfair, it is to be expected. However, one of the main push backs to Gobert as an asset was his limitations in the playoffs. While I believe those to be overblown, we have still yet to see Gobert’s production translate to the playoffs. 

Given the team forked over nearly every available asset, the expectation should be a championship or bust for as long as they can keep this core together. The team recently extended Conley and will surely do the same when it’s time to extend Ant, so the clock is running for how long they can afford to keep this team intact, especially considering that these new owners just burned a ton of cash to acquire the team in the first place.

Photo Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports