Lottery Day is Here! Will Luck Be On The Grizzlies Side?

The week of January 5th through January 12th was wild for the Grizzlies.

It started off in good fashion, as the Grizzlies beat the Lakers, Suns, and Magic (all playoff teams) as they were attempting to turn their season around after a nightmarish start. However, bad fortune once again reared its ugly head. During this same week, Memphis lost Ja Morant for the season as well as Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart for 6 to 8 weeks (Smart would eventually be out for the season as well.) And after their impressive three-game winning streak, Memphis would would lose nine in a row. The Grizzlies would then go 6-23 over their next 29 games.

As a result, it is fair to say that today’s date, May 12th, has clearly been a day circled on the calendar for Memphis since that wild week in January. Fortunately, it has finally arrived. And while some may see it as less than ideal that Memphis is a part of the NBA Lottery festivities today, it is nice to be at the point where we can enjoy one of the few positive results from last season.

Because with the season over, the Grizzlies can fully focus on the future. And when next season starts and the Grizzlies roster is hopefully healthy, adding a lottery pick to one of the NBA’s best young rosters is highly intriguing. But aside from the pick itself, where exactly their pick falls could highly influence other decisions and roster moves the Grizzlies make this offseason.

And that is why when the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery occurs today from 2-2:30 PM CST on ESPN, many in Grizz Nation will be locked in to various sources of viewing to see if luck will be on the Grizzlies’ side. Going into the Lottery, Memphis has the 7th best odds. The Grizzlies can land a pick either in spots 1-4 or 7-11. Rounded to the nearest whole number, Memphis has a 34% chance to earn pick eight, a 32% chance to earn a pick in the top four, a 20% chance to earn pick seven, a 13% chance to earn pick nine, and less than a 2% chance to earn picks 10-11. In other words, there is a wide array of results for Memphis this afternoon.

The other interesting dynamic of Memphis is they are in a different position on the competitive timeline compared to nearly all the other lottery teams. The Grizzlies will be looking to get back into the NBA’s circle of contenders as soon as next season starts, featuring one of the NBA’s best young cores. This means Memphis is not searching for a potential “additional part of their future core” like many other Lottery teams. They are looking for an intriguing young talent that could grow into a key part of their rotation in support of Morant, Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

As a result, the Grizzlies may have a bit of a difference focus when it comes to making their pick. Sure, like most lottery teams, the Grizzlies could simply go with the “best player available” approach. But in a draft many consider to be less talented at the top compared to previous and future drafts, the “best player available” could logically be multiple options. Therefore, roster need and specific skill-sets could be a focus for Memphis.

This is why Donovan Clingan is a popular name attached to the Grizzlies across the NBA mock draft universe. However, if the Grizzlies land one of the first two picks, Alexander Sarr could become a focus for Memphis. If the Grizzlies land pick seven or eight, perhaps Memphis will prioritize a player that fits their statistical preferences of past drafts, such as Reed Shepard. Or the Grizzlies could very well choose to go with another upside swing as they did with GG Jackson last year, which could make a player such as Ron Holland a target.

As can been seen, the Grizzlies’ priorities when it comes to the players they will consider on draft night could be influenced by where they pick. Of course, with Zach Kleiman being one of the most active NBA general managers in terms of draft week trades in recent years, a trade could occur as well. Naturally, the higher the Grizzlies’ pick, the more options they will have to consider.

And that circles back to why today should be exciting for Grizzlies fans. With a creative front office, having more options is a good thing. Furthermore, Memphis has had some pretty decent results from the last two times they were a part of the NBA Draft Lottery, as those picks resulted in Morant and Jackson Jr. And with how well the Grizzlies have built their roster through the draft under Kleiman and Taylor Jenkins, adding another young talent to the roster could make all the struggles from the last year well worth it in time.

So whatever superstitions you may put value in, try to do them three or four times today. Because in a few hours, one of the biggest questions of the Grizzlies’ offseason will officially be answered. And where they go from there will be exciting to witness as they look to get back among the NBA’s best teams next season.