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Can Ziaire Williams bounce back?
Ziaire Williams won’t give up on himself. You shouldn’t give up on him either.
By Andrew Hanissian - May 11, 2023, 7:45 am - 1 comments
Progress is not linear.
Objectively, this was a disaster of a sophomore year for Ziaire Williams, the second year forward from Stanford. Despite the desperate need for bench production during a turbulent Grizzlies season, Ziaire failed to get minutes for the majority of the campaign, playing for the Memphis Hustle in Southaven instead.
It’s quite the regression. Williams looked like a long-term piece after his rookie season, a guy who could step forward and be the solution to the hole at small forward Memphis currently faces. Ziaire hit timely shots and showed defensive potential, even bothering Steph Curry with his length in pivotal playoff minutes.
His sophomore season was a significant step back, a fall from grace for a player that seemed destined to be a versatile core piece.
But progress is not linear.
It’s a fluid statement, one that can be put on any player’s situation. And often, it’s used to explain away the struggles of a young athlete who never reaches his peak, leading to disdain for its usage. But when it comes to unique players in unique situations, the phrase means a little more.
For a team in love with drafting tweener forwards that can do a little bit of everything, searching for cheap utility players that can dribble, pass, and shoot, Ziaire Williams is a stark contrast. A star high school shot creator at Sierra Canyon and teammate to Bronny James, Williams was picked tenth as a home run swing, slightly earlier than late lottery projections thanks to the Valancunias-Adams swap with New Orleans that included the year’s first round picks as well.
Skeptical fans cheered a strong year shooting the ball and lengthy defense, even carrying into the postseason. But those cheers turned to boos, hisses, and lots of crying about Trey Murphy III, drafted by New Orleans with the swapped Memphis pick.
Progress is not linear. Progress is especially not linear for unique players in unique situations. Ziaire is one of these unique players, in a unique situation, and deserves the benefit of the doubt– for now.
Let’s take a deeper dive into the Ziaire Williams of the past, present, and maybe the future too.
The Rise
Even while playing at one of the top highschools in the nation, stacked with talent, Williams was “the guy.” A tall and lengthy shot creator, his playmaking and ability to rise up for a shot anywhere resembled flashes of the best forwards in the NBA.
The single play here showed everything exciting about the player Williams could be one day. With a fast first step (but a loose handle), the high-schooler wheeled into a mid range fadeaway that looked impossible – until he reached his apex. Suddenly, his uprightness burst into view, an elevation that his defender could not reach, and a rigid balance that made the shot end with control, even if it looked like it didn’t start that way.
It’s no wonder Zach Kleinman remarked that Williams had been scouted since High School.
“Six-foot-nine wings are nearly impossible to come by with shot-making ability, athleticism and intelligence that Ziaire brings to the table,” Kleinman told Evan Barnes, then of the Commercial Appeal soon after draft night.
This pre-college scouting, and his general mechanics and theoretical abilities, likely carried more weight to the front office’s decision, supplanting Williams’s one-and-done year at Stanford, where he averaged an inefficient 10.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.
Skeptics were unimpressed by Ziaire’s start to his rookie season, as one of the statistically worst players in the league. Williams seemed incredibly lost by the pace of the game, and struggled to make shots for quite some time.
An early injury sidelined him, yet he returned fresh and ready to make an impact, replacing the earlier narratives with hope and positivity. Having studied film aggressively, the young player showed a greater understanding of pace, improved shot making, and an impressive electricity as a vertical threat in transition.
Gaining more minutes and confidence as the season progressed, and at times starting at small forward over the injured Dillon Brooks, Ziaire looked like a core piece, someone who could step forward and become the new starter, even showing flashes of playmaking and an intense defense that nearly anointed him as the future. The young rookie was poised for a breakout sophomore year.
The Fall
The Ziaire Williams we received for the 2022-2023 season is not the one fans expected, a down year marked by an inability to earn minutes on a team desperate for bench production. Instead, he spent 561 minutes playing for the Grizzlies, and 212 minutes on the Memphis Hustle roster.
Williams averaged about 20/7.5/3 on 43/25/80 splits, remarkably inefficient for a prestige lottery pick against alleged lesser competition.
It started a bit more promising. Summer League Z averaged around 15/6/4 on 47/36/70 splits, an impressive showing on an acceptable efficiency for a growing player learning on-ball skills. It looked like the shooting from the previous year was sustainable. He would nail PnR pass after PnR pass with accuracy and precision. His weight seemed to be filling out, giving his frame power and gravity.
Yet he never made it to the season, held out for an injury that lasted a significant amount of time. In fact, it wasn’t the only injury– Ziaire missed several weeks all over the place with a wide variety of lower body injuries.
It’s hard to dissect Ziaire’s growth over the season, with too many inputting factors leading to shot confidence and scattered minutes, the enemy of consistency.
Could it be the change in role? Absolutely. It’s clear that focusing on driving to the basket and having the ball in his hands were both goals throughout the season. There’s bound to be figurative growing pains when adjusting to new roles, especially with the importance of ball handling when it comes to offensive initiation.
Could it be the literal growing pains as well? It’s also very likely. Williams allegedly grew 2-3 inches over the summer and through the beginning of the season, standing taller than he did originally at almost 6’10”.
Growing taller, and likely longer too, can be difficult to adjust to, similar to a new role. Your angle and release point for jump shots are different than before. You go farther with your strides. The ball comes off your fingers during layups at different points.
This all sounds like a game of inches, and something that shouldn’t be consequential – and yet, when playing at the highest level, those are the margins that matter. Even the slightest different dimensions make a world of difference. On a team trying to win and desperate for production outside of the top guys, there isn’t enough of a margin for that game of inches.
There is likely a significant injury piece as well that wasn’t fully disclosed, but that’s the reality of the Memphis Grizzlies, who have been perennially closed off to both injury reports and leaks in general since the ascent of Zach Kleinman. It’s only speculative, but plenty of research exists on the impact of growth spurts on professional athletes, particularly when it comes to high-impact sports like basketball.
Regardless, Kleinman’s exit interviews this year felt open and surprisingly honest about mistakes made in teambuilding philosophy, with an understanding that a focus on developing youth likely hurt the team’s contention.
“You always have to look back and say, ‘Hey, did we really need to triple down on youth at the beginning of the season?’…We all need to challenge ourselves. We’re motivated as hell” Kleinman said in the interview.
Ziaire is a unique player, in a unique situation. He was expected to adjust to a new role, take a step forward in production, and contribute significantly, all while dealing with his own physical injuries. He couldn’t do that.
Some of the better prospects in the league could find ways to contribute despite these scenarios. It’s not promising for his development. And yet, as has been stated, growth is not linear. Players bounce back stronger from these situations too.
What’s Next?
The Grizzlies will assuredly look to add some combination of veterans and wing upgrades for the upcoming season, and it’s likely a combination of rotation players and young guys will be in the deal. Ziaire Williams shouldn’t be the holdup for any major deals if the return matters, but he shouldn’t be given up very easily either.
Despite the struggles, the missed shots, the injuries that sidelined him, and the G-League demotion where he failed to dominate, Ziaire can be so much more. For as frustrating as his season was, he still looks like he could be the missing piece. You might just have to squint a little more than you did last season..
Players with Ziaire’s skillset and metrics do not grow on trees. They are in high demand, in a league where front offices ruthlessly pursue them. There wasn’t a player under 6’4” drafted in the lottery this past year, signaling the direction NBA teams look to move.
Evidence from the season suggests that Williams is working on the right skills. It seems like there was a key focus on playing inside-out, as the Jayson Tatum perimeter pullup game isn’t there yet with consistency. Continued reps with the handle will unlock the most of his on-ball prowess, aiding his playmaking and ability to get to midrange spots. The jumpshot will come along if it’s meant to be.
If Ziaire Williams plays for another team, you better be absolutely sure what you’re losing. And let’s be clear– two seasons and barely 21 years old is not nearly enough time to know that. You do not want that guy to go to another team and pop.
Ziaire has the most upside of any young player on the Grizzlies recently drafted, and he deserves another year.
He deserves another year because he can do this.
He deserves another year because he can do this, too.
Oh, and don”t forget the longest buzzerbeater in NBA history.
This is a player who will not give up on himself just yet. The Grizzlies would be wise to do the same.
He might be a star. He might be a bust. Time will tell. He’s a unique player in a unique situation, and one final time – for now – progress is not linear.
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Comments
I was really critical of him going into this and was skeptical of his trajectory. However, you made some really excellent points. He does deserve another year.