Getting Jaren Jackson Jr. Back on the Right Track Offensively

The first five weeks of the 2023-2024 season has been a trying and tumultuous time for the Memphis Grizzlies. With a 3-13 record through 16 games while enduring plenty of injuries and ineffective play, the coaching staff and roster have experienced far more struggles than successes. And until some of the roster’s better players return to action, there is no simple fix or solution that will lead to a quick turnaround.

For a time, the play of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane were a few bright spots for the Grizzlies. However, as defenses have focused more on stopping the Grizzlies’ two young stars, it has been harder for Jackson Jr. and Bane to consistently find success offensively. For Bane, the extra workload from being a primary facilitator and a recent ankle injury provide some logic for his recent struggles. However, for Jackson Jr., working through double teams and constant defensive pressure, especially over the past seven games, have led to less than ideal results.

On the season, Jackson Jr. is currently shooting 41.1% from the field, 29.6% from beyond the arc, and only 46.7% from inside the arc. These numbers have also resulted in a 46.0 eFG% and 53.1 TS%. The past two weeks have especially been troublesome for Jackson Jr., as over his past seven games, he is shooting 30.6% from the field and 26.4% from three. Without a doubt, Jackson Jr. is in the midst of an offensive slump.

The numbers are a significant decline from Jackson Jr.’s production last year when he shot 50% from the field, 58% from inside the arc, and had a TS% above .600 for the first time in his career. Jackson Jr. started off this season with similar numbers, but has obviously fell off over the past few weeks. He is averaging 15.5 shots per game so far this season, more than two full shots per game than at any other point in his career. While that logically was to be expected without Ja Morant on the court, the productivity from that usage is simply not where it needs to be.

Looking at Jackson Jr.’s approach this season from a shot distribution perspective may offer an idea of how he can achieve better results. Overall, two thirds of Jackson Jr.’s shots are twos and a third are from three. As a big who can operate in the post and the perimeter, that is a sensible ratio for his overall shots. However, only 22% of Jackson Jr.’s shot attempts have been within three feet of the rim, a notable decline from the 30% rate he was attempting at the rim last year. He also is making only 59.3% of his shots at the rim this season compared to 70.4% last year. Simply put, Jackson Jr. needs to regain his ability to get to the rim more frequently with better efficiency.

The best way to accomplish this goal is for the Grizzlies to give Jackson Jr. more opportunities in play types that will allow for him to generate success. Specifically, that is isolation and post-up opportunities. Obviously, it is a bit harder for Jackson Jr. to find these looks as he faces more frequent double teams and defensive attention. But with the Grizzlies currently going through arguably their worst offensive stretch of play since Taylor Jenkins became the coach, the coaching staff must get creative in setting Jackson Jr. up for success.

Isolation Opportunities

As Jackson Jr. was experiencing the best stretch of offense in his career in the second half of last season, one clear reason for the success was him being noticeably more comfortable in isolation opportunities, especially going downhill toward the rim.

Jackson Jr.’s productivity on isolation plays last year was in the 87h percentile among NBA players, a pretty impressive level of production for a big. Of particular interest for Jackson Jr.’s approach in isolation last year was how often his efforts led to free throws, as his 35.2% free throw frequency in isolation possessions was the highest in the NBA of any player with 10 or more such occurrences.

This year, Jackson Jr. has continued to find success, as he has doubled the rate at which he is finding himself in isolation opportunities (1.8 times per game this year compared to 0.9 times last year.) He is averaging 1.18 points per isolation possession this year compared 1.13 ppp last year, placing in the 88th percentile among NBA players. His efforts are also continuing to lead to frequent trips to the line, as his 28.6% free throw frequency is highest in the league among players with 25 or more isolation possessions.

The other encouraging improvement for Jackson Jr. in isolation situations is the increased efficiency in ball-handling. This season, Jackson Jr. is turning the ball over only 7% of the time in isolation possessions compared to 13% last year. In terms of all possessions, Jackson Jr. has been assisted on only 45% of his two point shot attempts this year compared to 56% last year and has kept his turnover frequency equal. This shows Jackson Jr. is continuing to get more and more comfortable with the ball in his hands away from the basket, a critical component to him becoming a more consistent go-to scoring option.

While it is a bit more difficult now than on the past, the Grizzlies must find ways to allow Jackson Jr. to produce in isolation opportunities. It can be done through effective off-ball schemes away from the basket and then quickly finding him with effective ball movement. If Jackson Jr. can find his rhythm through three or four isolation possessions a game, it could be a needed boost for him and the team, especially with his ability to get to the charity stripe and more frequent attempts at the rim.

Post-Up Opportunities

A specific area that helped Jackson Jr. have the best offensive season of his career last year was his ability to be more productive on post-up opportunities as he found himself in the situation more frequently. During the the 2021-2022 season, Jackson Jr. was in the 50th percentile among NBA players in terms of post-up productivity. Last year, he was in the 71st percentile among his peers.

This season, Jackson Jr. has seen a bit of regression compared to last year as he is currently in the 60th percentile in terms of post up activity among NBA players. But a key difference between this year and last year is that Jackson Jr. is getting to the line more frequently. Last year, 11% of his post-ups resulted in free throws. This season, Jackson Jr. is shooting free-throws 25% of the time he is in a post-up possession.

Jackson Jr. averages 3.1 post-up possessions per game, which places him among the most frequent post-up players in the league. His frequency of getting to the line is the second highest among players with three or more post-up possessions per game, while his turnover frequency is above average compared to his peers.

For Jackson Jr., the key is simply footwork and form, which has consistently improved on post-ups just like it has in isolation opportunities. He continues to find consistency in knowing how to use his body to get high percentage looks at the basket while also maintaining balance to more frequently score points. As his footwork and form have improved, he has combined that refinement with his athleticism to find success against bigger post players or smaller wings/guards. The result has been more frequent high-quality offensive games.

Adjusting to Bigger Offensive Role

Another key development for Jackson Jr. that will continue to be important as he draws more attention from opposing defenses is functioning as a facilitator. He is currently producing a 10.5% AST rate, doubling his AST rate from last year and far and away the best of his career. The ability for Jackson Jr. to find a teammate more frequently as he draws double teams is another way for the Grizzlies to gain more offensive consistency.

Overall, the Grizzlies simply need to focus on doing anything that results in positive productivity as often as possible. And with Jackson Jr. being one of their two main offensive threats in the present, that means getting him going as early and often as possible. Whether it be through isolation, post-up looks, or other schemes, another big key is allowing for Jackson Jr. to find success early in games. When Jaren makes multiple first quarter field goals, the Grizzlies are 53-26 since the start of the 2021-2022 season. In each of their three wins this season, Jackson Jr. has made multiple first quarter field goals.

So yes, Jackson Jr.’s offensive struggles so far this season are notable as he has becomes a bigger part of the offense, both in terms of usage and garnering the attention of opposing defenses. But his overall evolution as a offensive player suggests Jackson Jr. will figure out how to produce better results as time moves on. While part of that lies in his own adjustments, it also falls upon Jenkins and the coaching staff to put him in favorable opportunities. And as the Grizzlies getting some of their better talents back in time, that will be an easier task to accomplish. The end result could be more favorable isolation and post-up looks, which will lead to better productivity at the rim for Jackson Jr. and better overall efficiency.

So while it is very tough to be patient in these trying times, Jackson Jr. is right in focusing on staying the course with faith that better results are ahead. And if he can continue producing as he takes matters into his own hands more frequently, both he and the team will be better off in the future.