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How the Grizzlies Compare to the Last 10 NBA Champions

Feb 25, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) drives to the basket as Denver Nuggets guard Christian Braun (0) defends during the second half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

What does it take to be an NBA Champion? That’s what it boils down to. Isn’t a title the goal?

It’s why teams get out of bed in the morning. It’s why they put every ounce of themselves into the game. To win a championship.

And when that’s done? It’s a parade inside my city… Yeah?

Sorry, I had to.

It’s not as if winning a title is an easy task by any means—no, quite the contrary. Think about it. If it was easy, wouldn’t every squad in the league have a title at this point?

When, in fact, only six different squads have won the Larry O’Brien Trophy in the past decade. Six. Six teams in ten years.

But let’s go even farther back…

In the 45 years since 1977, when the aforementioned trophy was renamed… There have been 17 different championship teams.

So—like I said—it is not what I would consider ‘easy’.

Now, the purpose of this exercise is simple. I’ll look at five key statistical areas—offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, TS%, and PIE—comparing each. Each of these five stats to the last ten NBA title winners. It helps serve as a solid baseline for determining what Memphis needs to do to win a title.

Hell… If it takes a decade’s worth of winners to get you to realize I’m not a complete idiot every time I say… “This team is close—my name is Luke—blah blah red hair—insert self-referential joke here—blah blah”… So be it, I reckon.



Off. Rating (MEM – 114.7, 11th)

  • ’13-’14: SAS – 109.5, 5th
  • ’14-’15: GSW – 110.4, 2nd
  • ’15-’16: CLE – 110.2, 3rd
  • ’16-’17: GSW – 114.8, 1st
  • ’17-’18: GSW – 112.8, 3rd
  • ’18-’19: TOR – 112.6, 5th
  • ’19-’20: LAL – 111.7, 11th
  • ’20-’21: MIL- 116.5, 5th
  • ’21-’22: GSW- 112.1, 16th
  • ’22-’23: DEN – 116.8, 5th

Hey, think of it this way… By starting with an area of improvement, the only direction to go is up, right? You know what I mean?

Well, calling it an area of improvement feels like not giving this team their due. They were still right outside the top ten last season at eleventh. Plus, the Grizzlies’ 114.7 offensive rating last year isn’t “bad” by any means.

In fact—before 2020—that rating would’ve been good enough for a place in the top three. That’s a seven-year run of steady offensive production. So, what changed in recent years?

For one, the league got better. Plain and simple. To get more specific, the shooting around the league improved by leaps and bounds in the past few years.

Combine that with the fact Memphis’ shooting wasn’t “great”—that’s being generous—last season… Well, to be blunt, it’s not surprising the Grizzlies weren’t in the league’s upper echelon in their offense.

Of the 19 guys on the roster, only seven of them had a FG% at or above the league average (47.5%). From beyond the arc, their luck was even worse. Only four on the roster could match that (36.1%) figure. The Grizzlies only need a couple of their dudes to shoot the ball a hair better, and they’ll be right there in stride with each of the past ten champs.

And it looks like they’ll need it—eight of the past ten champions ranked in the top five in offensive rating. I’m not saying it’s a necessity, but a top 5 offense definitely helps a team’s title aspirations.



Def. Rating (MEM – 110.7, 3rd)

  • ’13-’14: SAS – 101.4, 4th
  • ’14-’15: GSW – 100.4, 1st
  • ’15-’16: CLE – 103.9, 10th
  • ’16-’17: GSW – 103.4, 2nd
  • ’17-’18: GSW – 106.8, 11th
  • ’18-’19: TOR – 106.8, 5th
  • ’19-’20: LAL – 106.1, 3rd
  • ’20-’21: MIL – 110.7, 9th
  • ’21-’22: GSW – 106.6, 2nd
  • ’22-’23: DEN – 113.5, 15th

Now, on to the Grizzlies’ bread and butter. An area where there’s not much room left to improve on—the defensive end of the court.

This has been an area that Memphis has excelled in recent years. In fact, they’ve improved their defensive rating ranking in each of the past three seasons, from 110.5 in ’20-’21 (7th in the league) to 108.9 in ’21-’22 (6th), and 110.7 last year (3rd).

Last season, on the defensive end, this team truly became a dominant force, though. Even more so than the two years prior. And their defensive rating wasn’t the only top-five ranking this unit boasted across the league—not by a long shot.

The Grizzlies also ranked fourth in the league in defensive rebounds per game with 34.6. While their steals (8.3/game) and blocks were both good enough for third (5.8). They also allowed the fifth-fewest points in the paint from opposing teams at 47.5 per game.

That’s an elite overall level of defensive play. Throw in the fact that Memphis added another former DPOY, Marcus Smart, to the unit… To a unit that already has Jaren Jackson Jr… There’s a chance this team somehow can still improve.

History shows us that a top-ten defense seems to help with a team’s title shot. I don’t expect this to be much of a problem this season—quite the contrary. We may be in store for the deadliest we’ve seen them in a long while. Maybe ever.



Net Rating (MEM – 4.0, 4th)

  • ’13-’14: SAS – 8.1, 1st
  • ’14-’15: GSW – 9.9, 1st
  • ’15-’16: CLE – 6.3, 4th
  • ’16-’17: GSW – 11.4, 1st
  • ’17-’18: GSW – 5.9, 3rd
  • ’18-’19: TOR – 5.8, 3rd
  • ’19-’20: LAL – 5.6, 5th
  • ’20-’21: MIL – 5.8, 4th
  • ’21-’22: GSW – 5.5, 4th
  • ’22-’23: DEN – 3.3, 6th

I won’t dwell super long here, as it goes hand in hand with the two pervious stats. Net rating, of course, is the difference between a team’s offensive rating and their defensive rating. It’s used to measure a team’s point differential per 100 possessions.

Whereas on offense or defense, sitting outside the top ten could work… An elite net rating seems imperative to win the title. The thing is, if the Grizzlies can improve their shooting, they’ll be there. After ranking fourth before, is it insane to think a top-three net rating is attainable? If they can get better on both the offensive and defensive ends, then this looks more like an inevitability than a possibility.



TS% (MEM – 57.0%, 25th)

  • ’13-’14: SAS – 57.1%, 3rd
  • ’14-’15: GSW – 57.1%, 1st
  • ’15-’16: CLE – 55.8%, 4th
  • ’16-’17: GSW – 59.7%, 1st
  • ’17-’18: GSW – 60.3%, 1st
  • ’18-’19: TOR – 57.9%, 4th
  • ’19-’20: LAL – 57.3%, 9th
  • ’20-’21: MIL – 59.3%, 5th
  • ’21-’22: GSW – 58.2%, 4th
  • ’22-’23: DEN – 60.1%, 3rd

“Ruh-roh Raggy.” This is a ranking I would call “not very good.” Or, at the very least, “not title worthy.” I’m sorry, but it’s true. I’m of the belief that TS% is the best indicator of a player’s shooting efficiency.

It takes into account a player’s—and team’s—shooting from the field, from the line, and from beyond the arc, which makes sense because of… well, you can score from all three of those spots… unless something changed within the past 24 hours in the rules of basketball. That would be weird.

What bothers me about that 25th ranking is that at this juncture it has become a consistent habit. Last year it was 25th. The year before that? 24th. And before that? 22nd. And before that? 21st. It’s the one area that Memphis has gotten worse in with each season under Taylor Jenkins.

Sure, part of the number being as low as it is has to do with the Grizzlies’ lack of shooters. But gone is that excuse. You’ve got Luke Kennard and Desmond Bane on this roster—to name a couple—so beyond the arc shooting has to get better.

The abysmal rate at which they shot their free throws the last two years, though? That’s exhibiting a level of basic negligence that makes me feel a very specific way.

You know how it feels? And please, let me apologize for this, but…

Remember the first 10 minutes of the Pixar film “Up”? Take a minute and remember how it made you feel. Like a swift kick to the emotional gonads over and over again for ten consecutive minutes? Remember that?

That’s how the Grizzlies’ FT% shooting has got me feeling after not one but two years in the lowest rung of the league. They sat at 28th two years ago and rock bottom last year at 30th. Not to get too literal… But there’s nowhere to go but up.

If they don’t? They will not be winning the title anytime soon.



PIE (MEM – 51.9%, 6th)

  • ’13-’14: SAS – 55.5%, 1st
  • ’14-’15: GSW – 56.9%, 1st
  • ’15-’16: CLE – 52.8%, 5th
  • ’16-’17: GSW – 57.9%, 1st
  • ’17-’18: GSW – 55.4%, 1st
  • ’18-’19: TOR – 53.3%, 4th
  • ’19-’20: LAL – 53.9%, 2nd
  • ’20-’21: MIL – 53.3%, 4th
  • ’21-’22: GSW – 53.6%, 3rd
  • ’22-’23: DEN – 52.5%, 3rd

Before I jump into it—with a show of hands—how many of you prefer pie to cake? I’m talking fruit pies. Not whatever they were eating in “Sweeney Todd.”

I love pies and find them far superior to the dry sponge that is cake. To all my cake eaters, I don’t know how you do it. Don’t you know Marie Antoinette’s love for cake is what got her executed? Or something similar, I’m pretty sure.

Not that it would change my mind. Give me pie any day of the week. Peach. Cherry. Apple. Blackberry. Insert fruit here. Pie is excellent, so it should come as no surprise that NBA Pie is also excellent.

It’s more than that, though—PIE is an exceptional gauge of a team’s execution during a game. It’s calculated using what I would call a rather complicated formula… But it does seem to work.

PIE stands for Player Impact Estimate. You determine an entire team’s by using the individual player’s PIE. A player’s PIE is a blanket measurement, taking into account their entire input into winning. You’ll use almost every part of the box score to calculate the metric.

What it boils down to is teams with a PIE of 50% or higher tend to be winning teams. While players whose PIE is 10% will have a greater impact in achieving victory. If you’re higher than those figures, you’re going to be an above-average player/team.

So, if the last ten champs tell us anything, it’s that you’re going to need to have a higher PIE—like a top-five ranking—to win a championship. So, how does Memphis get better here?

Well, the fact that they’re right outside the top five bodes well for them. It means they most likely won’t need to do much. Plus, the team has already done one thing to make this goal a bit easier to meet. Traded Dillon Brooks.

Is it unfair to put as much of the blame on DB as I’m about to? There’s a good chance. But fair does not have anything to do with it. Of all the Grizzlies with at least 1,000 possessions last season, his PIE (6.0%) ranked in the bottom 3. Then there’s this… In the playoffs last year, 12 guys saw minutes.

Dillon’s PIE was dead last at 1.5%.

So, yeah. They may not need to do much at all to see their rank go up in the grand scheme of things.



And so, with a couple of preseason games under their belts, Memphis should already be aware. Aware of the areas where they need improvement. Compare them to past winners, and—regardless of the game’s evolution—you’ll know, too. Time will tell if the Grizzlies will parlay this improvement into a title, though. I, for one, am excited as hell to watch.

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