WHO: Memphis Grizzlies (51-31, 35-6 home) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (43-39, 20-21 away)
WHEN: 2:00 PM CT
WHERE: FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
HOW TO WATCH/LISTEN: ABC/92.9 FM ESPN Memphis
INJURY REPORT:
MEMPHIS: Steven Adams (Out, knee), Brandon Clarke (Out, Achilles), Jake LaRavia (Out, ankle)
L.A. LAKERS: NONE
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS:
MEMPHIS: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman Sr.
L.A. LAKERS: D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, Anthony Davis
One of the few flaws of the NBA’s Play-In Tournament is it allows for an extended period of time to overthink things. Prognosticators and media outlets (this one included) could potentially break down the various rosters and numbers in to oblivion in anticipation of a game that is almost a week away. After the grind of an NBA season, games night in and night out, while it is a nice break for the previously mentioned content creators it can throw off the rhythm.
Basketball, finally, is back. The time for talking is coming to an end. The time for action is upon us.
The Memphis Grizzlies, the #2 seed in the Western Conference, are not viewed as the prohibitive favorites in this series. The Los Angeles Lakers, led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis, have played better since the trade deadline and have inspired confidence in more and more national pundits. Davis has been tremendous and is the reigning Player of the Month out west. James, despite his advanced NBA age, has stayed atop the league with his balanced play and growth as a shooter. And the Lakers have improved their depth, placing actual NBA rotation players alongside these two stars.
And yet, despite their best-in-the-league-run these last few weeks, it all was just to get to the play-in and to almost lose to the Minnesota Timberwolves without Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Naz Reid.
The sum of those three missing quite possibly is worse than Memphis being without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. And in L.A., the Lakers needed overtime to survive.
Safe to say, while the Lakers possibly boast the two best players in the series, the rest when compared to the Grizzlies leaves a bit to be desired. And that depth may make all the difference.
Here’s what to watch for in Game 1.
How Memphis keeps Anthony Davis out of the paint
Anthony Davis is a physical specimen, capable of dominating most matchups. And this season when L.A. has played the Grizzlies AD has gotten his more often than not. 29 points and 20.5 rebounds per game will do a lot to make you think you have an advantage against an opponent. But one of the ways Memphis was able to offset that level of play with Steven Adams out and unable to bully the block was force turnovers on Davis. AD committed 12 turnovers across two games against the Grizzlies this season, where his average per game in the regular season was 1 per game.
No one can stop AD one on one. But the way Memphis can account for him and assist Tillman can make a major difference. Doubles from the opposite corner, attacking on pick and roll so he doesn’t get a clean angle off the screen, and limiting his workable space in the lane by collapsing when he makes his move to the rim are all possibilities, and variety is the spice of life.
As much and as long as the Grizzlies can keep Jaren Jackson Jr. away from Davis and the foul trouble he could represent, the better. Jaren is a better weak-side defender any way, and righting the perimeter wrongs of his teammates (or just adhering to the funneling system the Grizzlies run defensively) is where JJJ best makes his likely Defensive Player of the Year impact.
If Xavier Tillman Sr. and friends can force AD to earn it, and make poor choices with the basketball resulting in extra possessions to offset some of his scoring, the Grizzlies will be in a good position to win.
Making Los Angeles pick a poison
The Lakers have two bona fide superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. However, Memphis can counter offensively with three legitimate threats in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane. All three of these guys have played at or beyond an All-Star level for extended period this season, and all three in a variety of ways have displayed a vast array of offensive skill. While the Grizzlies can potentially limit the 38-year-old LeBron James (who is also dealing with a foot issue) with likely All-Defense candidate Dillon Brooks and then double team Anthony Davis (as mentioned above), the Lakers cannot take away everything Memphis has to offer.
Jarred Vanderbilt is a solid perimeter defender and is versatile enough to give even Ja Morant issues for stretches of time – but not all the time. Anthony Davis will be there guarding the rim, but he’s not as strong at that as you’d think (teams shoot .3% better at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass). LeBron James is more of a reputational defender at this stage. And while the Lakers do boast the league’s best defense of late, some of that is…well…inconsistent.
While L.A. is better than they were before their transactions, the Grizzlies will be one of the largest tests the Lakers have faced – especially when Luke Kennard and Desmond Bane share the floor together. The Lakers reserves don’t boast the size or skill to make Memphis pay for the Grizzlies going small on the perimeter at times. Because of that, offensive efficiency can still be a focus without sacrificing defense too much.
Who will the Lakers choose to limit? If it’s Morant, he will find open players capable of being problems on all three levels of scoring. For while L.A. has improved, so have the Grizzlies. It will be on Bane and JJJ to actually abuse their mismatches as they come. But they’ve never been better suited for the task.
The Prediction
Memphis is a 3.5 point favorite as of this writing on FanDuel, and that does feel fair. L.A. is unlikely to be blown out – too much urgency from LeBron, too many opportunities for AD to thrive. But this game will come down to who boasts the best energy throughout the game and who is able to stay with this game plan most consistently. Both teams have mismatches/weaknesses that must be addressed. Finishing those rotations and sets will be massive, as will creating extra opportunities to score (rebounding for L.A., turnover generation for Memphis).
The Grizzlies are 1-2 in Game 1s during the Ja Morant Era, and are 0-2 at home in those Game 1s. Memphis has worked to earn those playoff scars, and they remember the disappointment/lack of energy that came with them against the Timberwolves last season, in particular. Expect a year-wiser Grizzlies squad to take advantage of a Lakers team that hasn’t been together very long. In fact, the last time the Lakers won a playoff game, only three of their current members (James, Davis, and Dennis Schroder – another likely Ja Morant defender) were on the roster.
This Memphis team is better aware of what to expect than the totality of the Lakers. And unfortunately for LeBron and AD, basketball remains a team sport.
MEMPHIS 116, L.A. LAKERS 110