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What to expect when No. 16 Memphis faces Tulane in the AAC Tournament semifinals, plus a game prediction

(Image Credit: American Athletic Conference)

FORT WORTH, Texas — Memphis basketball is just two wins away from its second championship in nine days.

The No. 16 Tigers (27-5, 16-2 AAC) meet Tulane (19-13, 12-6 AAC) in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament semifinals Saturday at Dickies Arena (2 p.m., ESPN2). Memphis—the No. 1 seed in the field—narrowly beat No. 8 Wichita State in the quarterfinals Friday. The 4-seeded Green Wave, meanwhile, eliminated 5-seeded FAU a couple hours later.

A victory over Tulane gives Memphis the opportunity to play either North Texas or UAB for its second conference tournament title in three seasons Sunday (2:15 p.m., ESPN). And after the Tigers’ close call against the Shockers, Penny Hardaway knows they can’t take their eyes off the ball, or treat this weekend like a warmup for March Madness.

“Unfortunately, we don’t get to have dress rehearsals here. At Memphis, there’s no such thing as dress rehearsals. It’s all real,” Hardaway said postgame Friday. “I know we’re in [the NCAA Tournament], but the competitive nature—you’re always hunting greatness. We’re never gonna settle.”

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ second matchup with Tulane this season.

Does PJ Haggerty have an encore?

The AAC Player of the Year put up the best showing of his college career, and one of the best in Memphis history against the Shockers.

Haggerty scored a career-high 42 points (16-for-25 shooting) to go with 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals. That matches Louisville’s Russ Smith (2014) for the most points scored in an AAC tourney game. It also ties Elliot Perry, Kendric Davis and Leslie Steele for the fifth-highest single-game total a Tiger has ever recorded.

“It’s March. It’s win or go home. I’m not trying to go home,” Haggerty said.

The 6-foot-3 guard (21.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game) surely hopes for another great outing against Tulane, especially after the Green Wave held him to a season-low 8 points on Jan. 30. That’s the only time Haggerty’s scored less than double figures this season.

Can other Tigers step up?

Memphis generated little offense besides Haggerty on Friday.

Dain Dainja aided him with 18 points (7-for-12 shooting), but no other Tiger scored more than 8 points. That would be Tyrese Hunter, who shot a porous 2-of-9 from the field. In fact, all Memphis players besides Haggerty and Dainja shot a combined 22% overall. The entire team also totaled a 3-for-15 clip from 3-point range.

Colby Rogers and Nick Jourdain, Memphis’ two other starters, both went scoreless and shot a combined 0-of-8 from the field. Rogers fouled out after 21 minutes, and Jourdain played just 15. Moussa Cisse, who dropped just 4 points, fouled out too after 15 minutes.

Memphis will likely need more from its supporting cast to reach the AAC finals.

What happened last time?

Memphis snatched its first win in New Orleans since 2020 earlier this season, and did so with relative ease.

Rowan Brumbaugh’s 13 first-half points kept Tulane alive for a while, but Rogers and PJ Carter eventually helped the Tigers push away.

Carter scored 8 of his 14 points after halftime, and finished the game 4-of-9 at the 3-point line. Rogers shot 0-for-5 from the field in the first half, but scored all 14 of his points in the second on 4-of-5 perimeter shooting.

Dainja logged a double-double with 19 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists on 8-for-11 shooting. Memphis shot 45% overall compared to Tulane’s 36%, and secured the 68-56 victory.

Ron Hunter’s club bounced back nicely from its loss to the Tigers, though, and has now won four of its last five games. But its predictive metrics still aren’t great. Bart Torvik ranks the Green Wave No. 155 overall, No. 114 in the adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 232 in adjusted defensive efficiency since last playing Memphis.

Asher Woods (20 points), Kaleb Banks (17), Gregg Glenn III (17) and Brumbaugh (15) led Tulane in Friday’s win over FAU.

The Prediction

Memphis eliminates Tulane for the second time in three years.

The Green Wave are simply a more favorable matchup for the Tigers than Wichita State, especially in the painted area. Dainja will feast like he did last time.

Expect to see Memphis in Sunday’s championship game.

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