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What to expect when No. 16 Memphis faces UAB in the AAC Tournament championship, plus a game prediction

(Image Credit: American Athletic Conference)

FORT WORTH, Texas — Memphis basketball hopes to win its second championship in nine days.

The No. 16 Tigers (28-5, 16-2 AAC) renew their rivalry with UAB (22-11, 13-5 AAC) for a third time this season in Sunday’s American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament title game at Dickies Arena (2:15 p.m., ESPN). This is the Blazers’ second consecutive appearance in the conference tourney final after winning it last year. It’s also Memphis’ third in the last four seasons.

Penny Hardaway’s club—the No. 1 seed in the field—beat No. 8 Wichita State and No. 4 Tulane by a combined 4 points in its first two postseason games. No. 3 UAB, meanwhile, earned double-digit victories over No. 6 East Carolina and No. 2 North Texas to get one more crack at the Tigers, who swept the Blazers in the regular season.

Memphis, which owns 11 combined wins in Quads 1 and 2, is already in the NCAA Tournament regardless of Sunday’s outcome. But UAB probably needs a win to qualify for the Big Dance.

The Tigers—at least on paper—don’t have much to gain or lose in their Fort Worth finale, especially compared to the Blazers. Don’t tell that to Hardaway, though.

“We’ve been in this championship game a lot since I’ve been here. We’ve only won it once [in 2023], but I’ve been in it enough to understand how it works. And it’s a blessing to be back here,” he said Saturday. “When you start winning championships, you get greedy for the championships. So, we wanna win.”

Here’s what to expect when the Tigers and Blazers meet again.

Dain Dainja vs. Yaxel Lendeborg: Part 3

Dainja and Lendeborg’s feud began in Memphis on Jan. 26.

Dainja embarrassed the AAC Preseason Player of the Year by postering him less than four minutes into the game at FedExForum. The 6-foot-9 center dominated UAB from there, finishing with 21 points, 8 rebounds, a block and a steal while shooting 10-of-12 from the field in just 25 minutes.

He then added more fuel to fire after the Tigers’ 100-77 victory.

“I feel like I’m the best big in this conference, and it’s not even close,” Dainja said. “I didn’t know who [Lendeborg] was…I didn’t know he was Preseason Player of the Year until we had the scout on him. I knew he was good, but I didn’t know all that…No disrespect, but I just [don’t] see it.”

The two then traded jabs on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

“Congrats on the best game of your career bro! I’ll see you,” Lendeborg wrote.

“lol… BET,” Dainja then replied.

That led to Memphis and UAB’s March 2 rematch in Birmingham, Alabama, where Dainja got the best of Lendeborg again. The Illinois transfer recorded 16 points, 17 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal. He also held his archrival to 4 points and 3 rebounds on 1-for-7 shooting in the first half. Lendeborg finished UAB’s 88-81 defeat with 10 points and 6 boards.

Dainja then added insult to injury with more trash talk on social media.

“And I’ma see you again,” he wrote on X, mocking Lendeborg’s previous post.

“All that talking for nun,” he later added on Instagram.

Lendeborg looks forward to facing Dainja one more time, but he’s done with the social media beef.

“I should’ve never let that get to me. I hold myself to a higher standard than some Twitter beef. That’s completely on me. I let it ruin my mental space last game, and it really bothered me,” he said Saturday after UAB eliminated North Texas. “I’m really excited and eager and play [Memphis] one more time and right my wrongs…Both games, I was a letdown—completely…I guess a rivalry started that shouldn’t have started, but I let it get to me [and I] played bad. Tomorrow, I’m gonna make sure that I won’t do that again.”

Will Tyrese Hunter be available?

Hunter inexplicably hobbled to the locker room midway through the Tigers’ victory over Tulane.

The 6-foot guard is no stranger to injury, having dealt with a nagging right knee that sidelined him for the first time in his four-year college career on Feb. 9 against Temple. Many feared his long-standing ailment had flared up again, but that evidently wasn’t the case.

Hunter (13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.5 steals per game) exited the game after he “dinged his [left] foot,” a Memphis spokesperson told Bluff City Media. He was originally declared questionable to return to the contest, but never did after later reappearing on the bench with crutches and a walking boot.

“We don’t know what’s going on with Tyrese, so hopefully it’s not for the worst,” Hardaway said postgame.

Hunter isn’t the only Memphis point guard that’s recently gone down. Midseason transfer Dante Harris hasn’t played since suffering a high-ankle sprain at UTSA on March 4.

Hunter’s status for Sunday is currently unclear. But both he and Harris could be sidelined for the foreseeable future, which leaves PJ Haggerty (21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.8 steals) and Colby Rogers (10.3 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.5 assists) as the Tigers’ only proven backcourt contributors.

Hardaway now hopes young reserves like Baraka Okojie (1.4 points and 1.0 assists) Jared Harris (0.5 points) can step up to the plate.

“We got [a] next-man-up mentality,” he said. “Our team is built 1 through 13—to be ready to play and be ready for war. So, when one guy goes down, the next guy is gonna step up…At the end of the day, we have to keep playing.”

What happened last time?

Memphis crushed UAB’s dreams of an AAC regular-season title at Bartow Arena two weeks ago.

The Blazers went up by as many as 9 points with 12 minutes remaining, but Haggerty scored 13 points in the next six minutes to give Memphis a 73-69 cushion. The Tigers then sucked the air out of Birmingham with a 15-7 run over the following five minutes and 20 seconds—claiming a 12-point advantage with 40 seconds to play.

Haggerty finished with a game-high 25 points (17 in the second half) to go with 4 assists, 2 rebounds and a steal on 9-for-16 shooting. Rogers also scored 21 crucial points, including 11 on 3-for-5 perimeter shooting in the first half.

Memphis—after trailing 42-36 at halftime—outscored UAB 52-39 in the second half on 66.7% shooting.

Andy Kennedy’s team is 3-1 since its second loss to the Tigers, including its two victories in the AAC Tournament. Lendeborg recorded an astonishing 30 points, 20 rebounds, 8 assists, 5 steals and 4 blocks in Friday’s 94-77 win over Easy Carolina—the first performance of its kind in AAC tourney history.

The 6-foot-9 center followed his historic outing with a 23-point, 13-rebound double-double against North Texas. Ja’Borri McGhee also scored 16 points in UAB’s 66-56 victory over the Mean Green.

Alejandro Vasquez (11.4 points) and Christian Coleman (11.3 points) are the only other Blazers who average double figures.

The Prediction

UAB finally conquers Memphis, and wins its second straight AAC Tournament championship.

In 2023, Houston swept the regular-season series with the Kendric Davis, DeAndre Williams-led Tigers. The Cougars then lost guard Marcus Sasser to a groin injury in the AAC Tournament semifinals, and entered the title game with nothing to play for. A Memphis team with everything to gain took advantage, getting its revenge on Houston with a 75-65 win.

Two years later, the Tigers head into an almost meaningless final round after (presumably) losing their starting guard in the semifinals. UAB now takes Memphis’ place as the team seeking redemption. And unlike the 2022-23 Tigers, the Blazers’ season is probably on the line.

Expect UAB to punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament, while the Tigers punch theirs to a No. 8 seed.

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