FORT WORTH, Texas — Wichita State ended Memphis basketball’s season in last year’s American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament. The Tigers get their chance for revenge exactly 365 days later.
No. 16 Memphis (26-5, 16-2 AAC)—the AAC regular-season champion—faces WSU (19-13, 8-10 AAC) in this year’s conference tournament quarterfinals Friday at Dickies Arena (noon, ESPN2). The 8-seeded Shockers eliminated 9-seeded South Florida in the second round Thursday. The Tigers, meanwhile, enjoyed a double-bye as the tourney’s No. 1 seed.
A victory buys Memphis a date with either 4-seeded Tulane or 5-seeded Florida Atlantic in the semifinals Saturday (2 p.m., ESPN2). If the Tigers roll through that, they’ll play for their second AAC Tournament title in three seasons Sunday (2:15 p.m., ESPN). Memphis coach Penny Hardaway knows that’s easier said than done, though, even as the heavy favorite.
“We’ve been through so many wars already this year. We’ll have to draw from our experiences that we’ve had from [the Alabama and North Carolina preseason exhibitions] all the way until now,” Hardaway told reporters Tuesday. “We do know it’s 0-0. The records and the regular season are done.”
Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ third meeting with Wichita State this season.
How much can the Tigers improve their seeding this weekend?
Memphis completed its redemption arc by securing the AAC regular-season crown last Friday. Its 7-8 finish to last season is officially in the rearview mirror, and replaced by a team marred with accolades like AAC Coach of the Year (Hardaway), Player of the Year (PJ Haggerty), Newcomer of the Year (Dain Dainja) and three All-Conference First-Team selections (Haggerty, Dainja and Tyrese Hunter).
So, what fuels Hardaway’s club—or at least Hardaway—now?
“Seeding,” he said. “When you win, you give yourself an opportunity to have higher [NCAA Tournament] seeding. The next thing behind that is to prove ourselves right and not others wrong…Those two things drive me. Maybe not the team, but it drives me because I know how important seeding is.”
Memphis’ aspirations there aren’t trending in a positive direction, however, especially for a group that owns 11 combined wins in Quads 1 and 2. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi dropped the Tigers to a No. 8 seed in his bracketology last weekend, and kept them there in Thursday’s afternoon’s update. YAGO Brackets—the Bracket Matrix’s No. 1 bracketologist in the last five years—also kept Memphis on the 8-line Thursday, while Bart Torvik projects the Tigers as a 9-seed.
Other forecasters like CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm and The Field of 68 have them as a 6-seed, but the Bracket Matrix still averages them out as an 8. Memphis possibly has one Quad 2 opportunity ahead this weekend—a hypothetical meeting with North Texas if both make the finals—while all other potential matchups fall in Quads 3 or 4. Teams must rank inside the top 100 of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) to be considered a Quad 2 opponent on a neutral court (top 50 for Quad 1). UNT (60) is the only AAC school besides Memphis (48) that meets that criteria.
The Tigers can’t do much to help themselves over the next three days, even if they cut down the nets for the second time in nine. So, Hardaway won’t hold out for good news come Selection Sunday.
“I’d be lying if I didn’t say that I don’t know if it’s gonna good for us or not on Sunday—even if we win it all,” he said. “When you know that, you just get ready for whatever comes, and we’ll be ready. We’ll use that as some more bulletin board material. I like our team being in that mode versus being relaxed and content.”
Turnover-prone Tigers, again?
Memphis seemingly nipped its unforced errors in the bud by recording more assists than turnovers in nine straight games over a 30-day span. But its last three outings suggest otherwise.
The Tigers tallied 13 turnovers to 11 assists at UAB and a season-high 22 giveaways to 12 dimes at UTSA. They finished with 21 assists to 14 turnovers against South Florida, but that’s after they lost 10 possessions in the first half alone. Memphis particularly struggled with early ball security to end the regular season, averaging 9.3 first-half turnovers in the three outings.
Haggerty committed 10 turnovers in that span (6 at UTSA). Dainja totaled 12 (5 against USF), while Hunter also logged 10 (4 each at UAB and UTSA respectively).
Memphis piled up 20 during its win over Wichita State on Jan. 23.
What happened last time?
Wichita State dealt Memphis its most recent loss last month at Charles Koch Arena.
The Shockers physically outmatched the Tigers in the first half, compiling 11 of their 19 offensive rebounds in the period and going into halftime with an 11-3 run. The two teams then exchanged the lead nine times in the first seven minutes of the second half before Memphis seemingly gained control.
Three consecutive 3-pointers—one from Haggerty and two from PJ Carter—gave the Tigers a 53-45 lead with 12 minutes to play. But Wichita State quickly tied the game with an 8-0 run, and Memphis never led by more than 4 points for the rest of regulation.
The Tigers eventually had both possession and a 71-69 advantage with 34 seconds left, but Dante Harris dropped an inbounds pass from Hunter and let the ball roll out of bounds. Hunter then fouled Wichita State forward Ronnie DeGray III, who sank two free throws to re-knot the score at the 18-second mark. Rogers then missed a contested 3-pointer at the buzzer that would’ve been the game-winner.
Memphis completely faltered in overtime, shooting 1-of-8 from the field and 0-of-3 at the 3-point line. Hunter, Moussa Cisse and Nick Jourdain scored the Tigers’ 8 points during the period.
A left-wing 3-pointer from Cortes moved WSU ahead by a point with 90 seconds to play, and Washington’s layup extended that edge to 3 on the following possession. Hunter missed two different 3-pointers that would’ve tied the game, and Wichita sealed the 84-79 final with four consecutive free throws.
Corey Washington had a double-double with 18 points and 15 rebounds (6 offensive). Quincy Ballard (19), Bijan Cortes (13), Xavier Bell (12) and Harlond Beverly (11) also scored double-figure points for Paul Mills’ Shockers, who shot 40% from the field.
WSU’s victory over Memphis was the fourth of a six-game winning streak. But the Shockers then lost three of their last four regular-season contests, including a Quad 4 home defeat to Tulsa last Sunday. Bart Torvik ranks them No. 126 overall, No. 168 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 113 in adjusted defensive efficiency since last playing the Tigers on Feb. 16.
Washington racked up 21 points and 9 rebounds in Thursday’s 73-68 win over South Florida. Bijan Cortes backed him with 20 points and 7 assists on 8-for-12 shooting.
The Prediction
Memphis survives and advances.
The Tigers will exercise their demons from last month, while Hardaway gets rid of his from last year.
Expect a resounding victory to start the postseason.