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What to expect when No. 24 Memphis hosts UAB, plus a game prediction

(Image Credit: Memphis Athletics)

Penny Hardaway knew this week’s two-game home stand was a big opportunity for No. 24 Memphis.

“This is the week. This is separation week for us in our conference,” he said during his weekly radio show Monday. “When you can handle your own business and not worry about someone having to beat someone, then that’s what you need to do. We have an opportunity to do that, so we have to play really well this week and separate ourselves.”

The Tigers (15-4, 5-1 AAC) didn’t exactly play well against Wichita State on Thursday, but they played well enough to win. So, they can take firm control of first place in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) if they beat UAB (12-7, 5-1 AAC) inside FedExForum on Sunday (noon, ESPN2).

North Texas (14-4, 5-1 AAC) hosts Florida Atlantic an hour later, and would have the same conference record as Memphis if both teams win their respective games. But Hardaway’s club owns the tie-breaker since it defeated UNT at home earlier this month. The two schools don’t meet again this season.

AAC coaches picked UAB as the league’s preseason favorite in October—and for good reason too. The Blazers won last year’s conference tournament and represented the league in the NCAA Tournament afterwards. Coach Andy Kennedy also returned a good portion of his core from last season’s team, including AAC Defensive Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg, who was named the league’s Preseason Player of the Year for 2024-25.

Many felt that picking UAB over Memphis to win the AAC was a slight towards the Tigers, who’ve earned 10 combined wins in Quads 1 and 2 this season while the Blazers lost five combined games in Quads 3 and 4 in their non-conference slate before winning their last five in AAC play.

Memphis is donning its white Memphis State jerseys for the only time this year Sunday, and is also hosting its annual stripe-out typically reserved for a top-25 opponent. The Tigers, however, still claim they aren’t treating this game any differently.

“No,” Memphis wing PJ Carter said when asked if he was. “I feel like we approach every game the same way. We have to understand that it’s one game at a time. We obviously have a bigger goal ahead.”

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ first meeting with UAB this season.

Hardaway feels he’s attacked Memphis’ turnover issue ‘the wrong way.’

Ball security’s been a problem for Memphis all season, but perhaps it reached a breaking point Thursday.

The Tigers committed 20 turnovers—14 in the first half—against a Wichita State defense that forces less than 12 per game. They averaged 14.4 giveaways before tipoff.

Hardaway has spent weeks trying to nip Memphis’ turnover issue in the bud. Whether it be Indian runs, 17s or pushups, he’s putting his players through whatever it takes to show that lost possessions are no longer an option.

But the seventh-year headman now thinks that the problem may lie in his free-flowing offensive philosophy rather than the Tigers’ discipline.

PJ Haggerty (22.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game) and Tyrese Hunter (15.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists) are Memphis’ starting point guards and two best players. They aren’t the only ones consistently handling the basketball, though.

Dain Dainja has a 26.6% usage rate, according to KenPom, higher than Hunter’s 21.5% and slightly lower than Haggerty’s 28.9%. Moussa Cisse (18.9%), Colby Rogers (17.8%), Carter (13.6%) and Nick Jourdain (12.8%) all spend sizable amounts of time with the ball too.

Hardaway plans to leave most of the dribbling to his lead horses moving forward—just like Larry Finch did as Hardaway’s coach at Memphis State.

“I think I’ve been coaching this team the wrong way, and that’s why we’re turning the ball over,” he told Tigers play-by-play man Dave Woloshin postgame. “When I was in college, Coach Finch sat the entire team down and said, ‘If the ball doesn’t go through Penny or David Vaughn, you’re not gonna play.’

“We gotta put the ball into PJ Haggerty [and Hunter’s] hands. It’s still gonna be equal opportunity, but the ball is gonna start with those guys. That way, we can get the turnovers down, know who’s handling it, know who’s passing it, know who’s shooting it. And I think that’s gonna cure up a ton of these turnovers.”

Hardaway views UAB as the perfect opportunity to eliminate ‘bad habits.’

A good chunk of Memphis’ turnovers are self-inflicted, and that trend didn’t change against Wichita State. The Tigers finished the game with 8 bad-pass turnovers, 5 lost-balls and 4 travels, according to StatBroadcast.

“I think it’s just bad habits. They just still have what they had at the teams that they were previously at, how they played the game. Everything that we teach sometimes goes out the window,” Hardaway said. “We know fundamentally what we need to do. Some guys just still have bad habits.”

Few things test a player’s decision-making more than a reliable zone defense, and Memphis should see plenty of that against UAB. That—coupled with Hardaway’s new plan to decrease the turnovers—makes for an intriguing chess match between him and Kennedy.

“I feel like I have an idea of what I wanna do. It couldn’t be a better time right now than against a really good 1-3-1 trapping zone,” Hardaway said. “We’re gonna have to be very sharp…[The Wichita State] game is gonna hopefully help us protect the ball against UAB, who’s way more aggressive than Wichita.”

What UAB brings to the table

The Blazers—though red-hot at the moment—still represent a Quad 3 opportunity for Memphis.

Kennedy’s team is No. 99 in Bart Torvik, No. 107 in KenPom and No. 134 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET). KenPom also ranks UAB No. 47 in adjusted offensive efficiency—13 spots better than Memphis—and No. 253 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Blazers have the AAC’s best scoring offense and third-worst scoring defense.

Lendeborg is having a monstrous campaign. The 6-foot-9 forward averages 16.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.5 steals on 57.6% shooting. He’s also leads the AAC with 11 double-doubles (No. 5 in Division I). Lendeborg averaged 14.5 points and 12 rebounds in two matchups with Memphis last season.

Christian Coleman is another fierce presence in UAB’s frontcourt. The 6-foot-7 forward puts up 12.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per game on 54.9% shooting. He has four double-doubles this year, and has garnered at least 8 rebounds in 12 games too.

Ja’Borri McGhee is replaces Eric Gaines as the Blazers’ top guard this season. The 6-foot-1 junior averages 10.2 points, 2.7 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals on 53.4% shooting. McGhee spent last year at South Plains Community College before transferring to UAB.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-4 guard Alejandro Vasquez (10.9 points and 2.7 rebounds), 6-foot-4 guard Efrem “Butta” Johnson (9.9 points and 2.6 rebounds) and 6-foot-2 guard Tony Toney (8.6 points and 3.4 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis wins yet another close game.

UAB is the nation’s No. 9 team in offensive rebounding and No. 10 in total rebounding, which could give the Tigers serious problems because of their struggles on the boards in recent weeks. But they’ve improved with 21 combined offensive rebounds in their last two games against Charlotte and Wichita State.

That might close the gap just enough to allow Memphis to take advantage of UAB’s soft defense.

Expect a high-scoring affair.

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