What to expect in Memphis basketball’s Thanksgiving reunion with No. 20 Arkansas, plus a game prediction

Now, this is something to be thankful for.

Memphis (4-0) gets No. 20 Arkansas (4-1) in the Battle 4 Atlantis semifinals this afternoon (4 p.m., ESPN). The Tigers and Razorbacks will face off for the first time since 2003 when John Calipari’s Tigers defeated Arkansas 72-67 in Fayetteville.

Memphis had played the Razorbacks at least once 12 seasons in a row up to that point (1991-2003), and the two programs met in two different NCAA Tournament games in that span. Penny Hardaway’s Tigers narrowly defeated Todd Day’s Razorbacks 82-80 in the Round of 32 in 1992, when Memphis reached the Elite Eight. Arkansas beat Lorenzen Wright’s Tigers in overtime 96-91 in the 1995 Sweet 16. Nolan Richardson’s Razorbacks—the defending National Champions in 1995—went back to the National title game but lost to UCLA. Arkansas leads the all-time series against Memphis 11-10.

Moving back to present day, both teams are obviously coming victories in the Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinals yesterday. The Tigers held off a late rally against Michigan to earn a 71-67 win in Hardaway’s coaching debut for this season, while Stanford took Arkansas to double-overtime before the Razorbacks squeaked out a 77-74 victory.

Memphis, despite having its worst offensive output yet against the Wolverines, was still relatively efficient in scoring the basketball. The Tigers shot 44% from the field and made 10 of their 24 attempts from behind the 3-point line. They also had three double-digit scorers in Ashton Hardaway (17), David Jones (11) and Caleb Mills (10).

Defensively, Memphis held Michigan to 39% shooting, forced 18 turnovers, compiled 9 steals and 8 blocks. Thirteen of those turnovers came in the first half, where Michigan shot just 11-of-29 from the field and scored only 12 points in the paint despite 10 offensive rebounds. The Tigers also won the game despite losing the total rebounding battle 50-28.

Memphis—a team that’s received more AP Top 25 votes than any other unranked team the past two weeks—all but secures a spot in next week’s rankings with a victory over Arkansas. Whichever team wins this game will face the winner of North Carolina v. Villanova (1:30 p.m., ESPN) in the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. on ESPN. The two losers will play each other in tomorrow’s third-place game (4 p.m., ESPN2).

Here’s what to expect from this rekindled rivalry matchup.

Can Memphis’ stars get back on track?

It wasn’t the usual suspects that won Wednesday’s game for the Tigers.

Memphis’ top three scorers—Jones, Jaykwon Walton and Jahvon Quinerly—only put up 25 combined points and seven combined field goals against Michigan. Last season’s Lou Henson Award winner Jordan Brown played just 12 minutes and recorded 4 points and 5 rebounds in that span. Walton and Jones, two perennial shooters, only hit one 3-pointer each, as did Quinerly.

The Tigers’ offensive output, while still good, partially suffered because of this. Even Hardaway is impressed his team won despite the lack of production from Memphis’ best players. In fact, he probably wouldn’t have guessed his team won if he’d seen the stats before the game, at least not initially.

“At first, I would’ve said no way. But then I would’ve said we have strength in numbers, because we have other guys that can take over,” Hardaway said Thursday.

Will Ashton Hardaway continue his hot streak?

Ashton Hardaway looked at the ESPN television cameras after hitting his fifth 3-pointer of the night in the Tigers’ game against the Wolverines.

“I’m really like that,” he said to the cameras.

He was indeed like that on Wednesday. The 6-foot-8 freshman led Memphis with 17 points and 2 rebounds while shooting 6-of-9 from the field and 5-of-7 from 3-point range. And while he may not put up those kinds of numbers every night this season, the youngest Hardaway showed just how lethal he can be for this team during 2023-24 and beyond.

ASHTON HARDAWAY

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

17 PTS
5-7 3PT

The freshman balled out for the Tigers and played his biggest game yet. Bright future for Ash.@BluffCity_Media | #GTG🐅 pic.twitter.com/LCSdhig1U7

— Hitmen Hoops Media (@HitmenHoops) November 23, 2023

“I feel like any time my teammates trust me with the ball to score, I’m pretty confident in my shot,” Ashton Hardaway said. “But I probably knew after the first two [3-pointers] that I was gonna have a pretty good game from the field…It was just bigger than me hitting the 3s because my teammates’ role was just getting me the ball too. So, I wasn’t focused on how many 3s I was hitting or how many points I was stacking up.”

The Carson, Calif. native’s playing time and production had been inconsistent this season, largely due to the depth and experience Memphis has. But he knows exactly what he needs to do to keep getting opportunities.

“Just stay ready,” he said. “My brother (Jayden) and my coaches are just telling me to stay ready. When the opportunity comes, you maximize your minutes. Today was my opportunity to show what I can do.”

Arkansas’ flawed, but dangerous group

Eric Musselman’s Razorbacks have been far from perfect to start this season. They have a home loss against UNC-Greensboro for a reason, and they didn’t show much improvement in Wednesday’s win against Stanford.

Arkansas had a sluggish showing offensively, shooting 30% from the field and 26% from beyond the arc. The Razorbacks also recorded 13 turnovers, missed 7 free throw attempts and compiled just 6 assists. Additionally, Musselman’s team trailed for the majority of regulation and allowed Stanford’s Benny Gealer to force a second overtime via a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. The Razorbacks played well defensively, though, forcing 19 turnovers and holding the Cardinal to 26-of-65 shooting.

Despite Arkansas’ early struggles, nobody can deny its immense talent. Names like Temple transfer Khalif Battle and Houston transfer Tramon Mark should ring a bell for Memphis fans. The two former AAC stars now lead the Razorbacks in scoring with averages of 16.5 points and 14.5 points per game respectively. Battle also shoots 47.4% from 3-point range.

Louisville transfer guard El Ellis is also a crucial piece with marks of 14.3 points, 3.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game on 52.6% shooting. Returners like 6-foot-10 Travon Brazile (10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-4 Davonte Davis (8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3 assists per game) also play significant roles.

So does former Tiger Chandler Lawson, who departed Memphis to head to Fayetteville this past summer. The 6-foot-8 forward was a big key in the Razorbacks’ win over Stanford, recording 9 points, 13 rebounds and 5 blocks in 36 minutes. Lawson, who’s started in three games this season, averages just 8.8 minutes per contest so far, but could prove to be an important player for Arkansas as the year goes on.

The Prediction

Memphis wins handily and advances to the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship.

On paper, the Tigers and Razorbacks look to be as even as it gets. Both have immensely talented backcourts. Both have an abundance of new transfers. But Memphis seems to be handling things better than Arkansas to start the season.

Musselman’s team has yet to find its groove, and Hardaway’s team somehow looks to already have both an identity and a clear agenda. The Tigers have looked better against higher quality opponents with two top 90 KenPom victories in four games (No. 87 Missouri and No. 41 Michigan), while the Razorbacks have just one against No. 67 Stanford and also own a home loss to No. 102 UNC-Greensboro.

Additionally, The Tigers look to have an advantage in the frontcourt with players like Brown, Malcolm Dandridge and Nick Jourdain matched up against Brazile, Lawson and Makhi Mitchell. If there’s a non-conference game for the 6-foot-11 Brown (10.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game) to show out this season, it could be this one.

Overall, it’s simply easier to trust Memphis in this spot as of now.