What to expect in Memphis basketball’s biggest challenge yet at No. 21 Texas A&M, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball has been through the wringer this season.

The Tigers (6-2) are eight games into one of the country’s toughest non-conference schedules. They’ve won road tests at Missouri and VCU, and neutral court battles against Michigan and Arkansas in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Memphis also lost to Villanova to end that same tournament and at Ole Miss last weekend. Five of those teams are ranked in the top 100 in KenPom, and four of them are in the top 80.

Its biggest challenge yet, however, presumably comes today. The Tigers travel to Reed Arena to face No. 21 Texas A&M (7-2) in the second game of a home-and-home series (3 p.m., ESPN2). Memphis defeated the Aggies at FedExForum last season in an 83-79 blood bath. Penny Hardaway’s team outlasted a second half push from Buzz Williams and co. after controlling most of the contest. The win ultimately proved to be the Tigers’ best in 2022-23, as Texas A&M went on to finish No. 2 in the SEC and advance to the SEC Tournament Championship.

The Aggies return three of the top five scorers from last season’s team, including SEC Preseason Player of the Year Wade Taylor IV (18 points per game this season), and are ranked No. 21 and 13 in KenPom and the NCAA’s NET rankings respectively. Memphis, which leads the all-time series with Texas A&M 5-3, is a 7.5-point underdog for this afternoon’s game. The Tigers have never won at College Station.

This will be Memphis’ last road game of its non-conference schedule, but it still has home matchups on deck against No. 24 Clemson (Dec. 16), Virginia (Dec. 19) and Vanderbilt (Dec. 23).

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ fourth SEC matchup this season.

Life without Jordan Brown begins.

Brown, a 6-foot-11 Louisiana transfer, likely won’t return to Memphis this season after playing just seven total games for the school, sources confirm to Bluff City Media. He never eclipsed more than 20 minutes on the floor during any of those contests. Brown sat out Wednesday’s game at VCU due to an undisclosed illness, but his proverbial doctor’s note has apparently become permanent.

BREAKING: Memphis C Jordan Brown is NOT expected back at Memphis this season, multiple sources tell me and @BluffCity_Media.

Brown won the 2023 Lou Henson Award for being the best mid major player in college basketball.

Significant news.@BluffCity_Media | #GTG🐅 pic.twitter.com/PANyHIVD8t

— Hitmen Hoops Media (@HitmenHoops) December 8, 2023

The fifth-year senior was expected to be a focal point of Hardaway’s team this season, but fell well short of those expectations. He won the Lou Henson Award last season. The award annually recognizes college basketball’s best mid-major player. And Brown was very-much worth the honor with his averages of 19.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in 2022-23.

He was a shell of that player this season, however, and averaged 6.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 13.4 minutes per game after playing 31.9 minutes per contest last season. Brown almost completely disappeared against Ole Miss last Saturday after picking up two fouls in the first 1:23 of the game and playing just seven minutes total. He finished the game with 2 points and 1 rebound, which simply isn’t good enough given the expectations for him heading into this year’s campaign.

Hardaway provided an update on Brown’s illness to reporters Friday.

“JB’s still sick, man. I gotta knock on the door today,” he said. “For real, like he’s been ill. A lot of guys got ill after the Bahamas. He didn’t. And then now it’s like, this is crazy…I was hoping [he’d feel better] after we left VCU.”

Fifth-year senior Malcolm Dandridge, who’s averaging 11.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in his last two games, will replace Brown as the team’s starting center. He put up 10 points and 7 boards at VCU Wednesday. Temple transfer Nick Jourdain (5.6 points and 4 rebounds per game) should also see an increased role.

Can Jaykwon Walton return to form?

The Wichita State transfer, who averaged 13.9 points per game and shot 40% from 3-point range last year, started this season on a high note.

He scored 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting against Jackson State, 13 points on 5-of-8 shooting at Missouri and 12 points on 4-of-9 shooting against Alabama State. The 6-foot-7 wing has since come down to Earth, though.

Walton’s averaged just 7 points and 3 rebounds while shooting just 29% from the field and 26% from 3-point range in his last five games. He’s shooting a combined 4-of-22 clip in his last three contests and has made just one of his last 10 3-point attempts. That one good shot did give Memphis a 75-72 lead in overtime versus VCU on Wednesday, to be fair. But Hardaway knows Memphis needs more than that from its third-leading scorer.

“We do need him to score more,” Hardaway said Friday. “I think it’s just a matter of time, because the game that he had against Jackson State is really who he is. He’s a scorer, and right now he’s maybe thinking too much. He gets really down on himself, really hard on himself. So we need him to just keep shooting, and [then] it’s gonna turn.”

What Texas A&M brings to the table

Spoiler alert: the Aggies are a really good basketball team—likely the best one Memphis has faced so far.

Taylor, a 6-foot guard, is obviously Williams’ headliner. The Dallas native averages 18 points, 4.6 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game while shooting 39% from the field. His best performance thus far came in a loss to No. 11 Florida Atlantic when he put up 35 points, 5 assists and 3 rebounds with 46% overall shooting clip. Taylor, an Honorable mention All-American last season, also shot 63% from 3-point range against the Owls. He scored 25 points against Memphis last season.

Texas A&M also returns 6-foot-8 forward Henry Coleman III. Coleman, who’s in his third year with the Aggies after transferring over from Duke, averages 14.3 points and 9 rebounds per game this season. He put up 12 points and 5 rebounds versus the Tigers last year.

Tyrece Radford, another returnee from last season’s team, has played in just six games this season due to an undisclosed illness. Radford hasn’t played since exiting the Aggies’ game versus Florida Atlantis on Nov. 24, but is a crucial piece for Texas A&M when available. He averages 13 points and 4.8 rebounds per game on 47% shooting.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-6 guard Hayden Hefner (8.3 points per game), 6-foot-6 guard Jace Carter (6.7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game), 6-foot-7 forward Soloman Washington (5.9 points and 4.8 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-7 forward Andersson Garcia (4 points and 7 rebounds per game).

Texas A&M collectively shoots 43.6% from the field, 30% from 3-point range and scores 77 points per game. The Aggies also hold their opponents to 42.4% shooting and 67.7 points per game while also forcing 11 turnovers per contest. And most importantly, at least for Memphis, Texas A&M ranks No. 2 in the country in offensive rebounds per game with an average of 17.67. Round that number up, and the Aggies are tied at 18 per game with top-ranked team St. John’s.

The Tigers gave up 17 offensive rebounds at VCU Wednesday.

The Prediction

Texas A&M hands Memphis its third loss of the season.

The Tigers have all the talent necessary to win this game. Leading scorer David Jones (19 points per game) could certainly take over and lead Memphis to victory. Jahvon Quinerly, who scored 22 points in Alabama’s 82-63 blowout win over the Aggies in last year’s SEC Tournament title game, could have A&M’s number. Walton can end up finding his groove again and having a big game at College Station. Dandridge, Jourdain and others could also have breakout performances that help the Tigers score an upset.

None of those things are very likely to happen, however. Williams’ team has the best player on either squad, has a huge advantage with its vastly superior rebounding on both ends of the floor and—simply put—is probably the better overall group than Memphis right now.

Hardaway’s team is definitely battled tested, which can prove to be a difference here. But the Tigers aren’t playing well enough right now to suggest a probable victory in these circumstances. Expect Memphis to fall short in a close battle.