What to expect when No. 10 Memphis visits Tulane, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball’s fortune finally expired Thursday night.

The Tigers were upset by South Florida inside FedExForum after leading by 20 points on two different occasions, including a 52-32 advantage early in the second half. No. 10 Memphis—the ranking being a formality now—had spent the past month escaping close call after close call against inferior opponents. It would’ve lost to Vanderbilt on Dec. 23 had Ezra Manjon made a 3-point buzzer beater, went neck-and-neck with Austin Peay for nearly 30 minutes on Dec. 30, needed Jahvon Quinerly to hit game-winning 3-pointers against both Tulsa on Jan. 4 and SMU on Jan. 7 and gave up 101 points to lowly UTSA in an overtime affair on Jan. 10.

But Penny Hardaway’s team seemingly stopped its underestimating ways when it decimated Wichita State by 26 points last Sunday. That outing, however, proved to be a mirage and Memphis now has a Quad 3 loss on its resume. On top of that, most of the Tigers’ marquee wins are losing their luster, with Clemson, Virginia, Arkansas, Michigan and others being on a downward trajectory. This means Memphis (15-3, 4-1 AAC) cannot afford many more slipups in conference play, or it might as well kiss a top-5 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament goodbye.

“Losses don’t deter me. It’s not learning from them that will,” Hardaway said Thursday. “When are we gonna learn from what we’re doing? We’re watching it every day on film as a group, and it just finally caught up to us [against South Florida].”

Fortunately for the Tigers, their next game is a Quad 2 opportunity. But it’ll be against an opponent that owns three of the last five matchups between the two schools—Tulane (11-6, 2-3 AAC). Memphis may have ended the Green Wave’s campaign emphatically in the 2023 AAC Tournament, but the latter still swept the former in last year’s regular season series. The Tigers also haven’t won at Tulane since Dec. 16, 2020.

Hardaway owns an 8-3 overall record against Ron Hunter’s team, though, and is expected to earn his ninth win over the Green Wave Sunday afternoon (12 p.m., ESPN2). Memphis enters the matinee as a 2.5-point favorite.

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ latest chapter with one of their archnemeses.

Jordan Brown—somehow, someway—is back.

Brown, who suddenly vanished from Memphis basketball in December, has officially rejoined the program after a near two-month absence.

The 6-foot-11 center began this season with lofty expectations after winning last year’s Lou Henson Award for being college basketball’s best mid-major player. But the Louisiana transfer ultimately disappointed in the Tigers’ first seven games with averages of 6.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 13.4 minutes per contest.

Brown had his worst performance yet on Dec. 2 at Ole Miss after picking up two fouls in the first 1:23 of the game and playing just seven minutes total. He finished the contest with 2 points and 1 rebound.

He then sat out Memphis’ trip to VCU on Dec. 6 due to an apparent illness. Two days later, Bluff City Media reported that Brown’s proverbial doctor’s note was permanent and he’d be leaving the team. Hardaway, however, kept reiterating to the media that Brown was just sick.

The fifth-year senior reportedly cut all ties with the program on Dec. 27, which seemingly brought his time as a Memphis Tiger to an end.

But Brown returned to campus and asked to rejoin the team last week, which prompted Hardaway to hold a players only meeting. Nearly everyone on the team initially balked at Brown’s potential return, with the meeting being described as “awkward” by sources. The players, however later became mostly indifferent after some convincing by Hardaway and others.

The staff officially reinstated Brown after Thursday’s loss to South Florida. The 24-year-old is expected to return to Memphis’ lineup against Tulane.

Possible chemistry issues?

The loss to South Florida, as shocking as it was, may not have been Thursday’s biggest takeaway.

That would be Hardaway’s postgame comments. The sixth-year coach repeatedly mentioned “inner things” his team is dealing with right now, causing fans and reporters alike to speculate if Memphis is having chemistry issues.

“There’s so much going on that you can’t play certain groups together,” He said. “Everybody’s so talkative, as far as the game. When the game’s going good, there’s talking. When the game is going bad, there’s talking. And then the negativity of the talk starts to weigh on the team, and it just makes you have to put certain guys out on the court.”

This talking, as Hardaway calls it, is apparently quite frequent—especially during games.

“It’s just a common theme with us. [When] we’re in the huddles, instead of talking about the other team, we’re trying to square things up. And it’s just too much. You can’t do it. You gotta win the game,” he said. “For us to go far in March [and] April, we gotta clean up all that.”

Brown’s return to Memphis seems oddly timed after Hardaway’s remarks. With the Tigers possibly having cohesion problems, bringing back someone who hasn’t been with the team in over a month doesn’t seem optimal. But Brown could fill a need for another center in Memphis’ frontcourt, which might help Hardaway’s club end its month-long funk.

What Tulane brings to the table

The Green Wave have fallen short of heightened expectations this season with two Quad 3 losses and a slow start to AAC play. But they’ve also displayed their potential at times, particularly during their 85-84 home loss to Florida Atlantic earlier this month. Tulane led the Owls 84-83 in the final seconds, and would’ve scored the upset win had Jaylen Forbes not fouled Alijah Martin while the latter was attempting a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. Martin went 2-for-3 at the line, and FAU escaped Fogelman Arena with a fortunate victory.

Hunter’s team is ranked No. 109 in KenPom and No. 112 in the NCAA NET rankings. Tulane, which lost star point guard Jalen Cook to LSU last offseason, is also a fairly tested group with four losses in Quads 1 and 2. It doesn’t own any quality wins despite having those opportunities, but it could gain its first Quad 2 victory of the season by upsetting Memphis once again.

Kevin Cross has replaced Cook as Tulane’s leading scorer. The 6-foot-8 forward averages 17.1 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists while shooting 56% from the field and 37% from 3-point range. The ever-versatile Cross also nabs 1.6 steals per game. He scored 12, 22 and 12 points in three matchups against Memphis last season. In the second game, Cross also racked up 5 assists and 3 rebounds while making 75% of his field goal attempts and 100% of his 3-point attempts.

Forbes, like Cross, is one of the AAC’s best players. The 6-foot-5 guard puts up 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals while shooting 35% from beyond the arc. He scored 21, 18 and 7 points in three respective affairs with Memphis in 2023. The Alabama transfer also lit up Florida Atlantic with 28 points on 50% shooting.

Sion James has been one of Hunter’s most trusted players for years. The 6-foot-6 guard is having his best season yet with 13.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 52.3% on his field goal attempts and 41.8% on his 3-point attempts. James also averages 1.8 steals. He arguably had the best game of his college career against Memphis on Jan. 1, 2023, putting up 30 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks while shooting 6-of-8 from the field and 4-of-4 from 3-point range. The Green Wave used James’ monstrous performance to beat the Tigers 96-89.

Other players to watch out for are 6-foot-2 guard Kolby King (13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game), 6-foot-6 forward Collin Holloway (12.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game) and 6-foot-6 guard Tre’ Williams (9.6 points and a steal per game). The Green Wave primarily run a six-man rotation.

Tulane scores 86 points per game while shooting 49.7% from the field and 35.3% from 3-point range. The Green Wave also average 33.1 rebounds and 14.6 assists, but they also turn the ball over 11.2 times per contest. Defensively, they compile 14.9 forced turnovers, 9.4 steals and 3.9 blocks. Hunter’s club ranks No. 64 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 188 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis wins. Barely.

The Tigers’ defense hasn’t been great lately, and is now tasked with containing an offense it had lots of trouble with last season. Tulane proved in 2023 it matches up better with Memphis than Memphis matches up with Tulane. Hardaway and Co. are probably getting that matchup at a bad time this year.

The difference, however, is Memphis has more athletic wings and a deeper frontcourt this time around, which should help the Tigers slow down the Green Wave’s 3-point attack and score more consistently. A loss would perhaps be on the horizon if Memphis beat South Florida, but it’s hard to see the Tigers dropping two in a row when their margin for error is so small.

Expect a Memphis win. Don’t expect it to look pretty.