What to expect when Memphis basketball hosts Rice, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball was ranked No. 10 in the AP Top 25 earlier this month. It’s now on the NCAA Tournament bubble after three consecutive defeats—two of them being Quad 3 losses.

The Tigers (15-5, 4-3 AAC) have undoubtedly hit rock bottom throughout the past two weeks. Their chemistry is nonexistent. Their effort is lackadaisical. And their weaknesses only seem to magnify in each game.

They’ve also dropped out of the AP poll altogether, and their computer numbers are still plummeting. KenPom currently slots Memphis at No. 63, while the NCAA NET rankings have it at No. 68. Bracketologists are also much lower on the Tigers, as Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi (ESPN) project them as a No. 8 and 9 seed respectively. Memphis—6th place in the AAC—averages out as a No. 9 seed on the Bracket Matrix, an online algorithm that combines 86 different bracketologies.

But head coach Penny Hardaway isn’t scared of the adversity his team faces. In fact, he’s gone through worse during his six-year tenure. The Tigers rallied from a 9-8 start to a 21-10 record and a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago, and bounced back from bad losses against UCF and Tulane (twice) to win the AAC Tournament title last year. Memphis also shook off a 9-6 start to win the 2021 NIT during a season heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I don’t think I’ve exhausted all my options because I’m not a loser. I’ve been down before,” Hardaway said after Memphis’ loss at UAB Sunday. “But it’s gonna take for these guys in the locker room to change who they are if we’re gonna do anything.”

The Tigers have a chance to wipe the slate clean—maybe even begin another late season run—when they host Rice (7-13, 1-6 AAC) inside FedExForum on Wednesday (7 p.m., ESPN+). Memphis, which is 9-1 in 10 matchups with Rice, is a 14.5-point favorite against the Owls.

Here’s what to expect on a night where Hardaway’s team will don its Memphis State throwback jerseys.

Starting lineup changes?

Memphis has trotted out the same starting lineup for 10 consecutive games: Jahvon Quinerly, David Jones, Jaykwon Walton, Nick Jourdain and Malcolm Dandridge. The Tigers won the first seven contests of this stretch, but have obviously lost the last three.

They turned the ball over 22 times during their loss at UAB. Jones and Quinerly—Memphis’ two leading scorers—combined for 13 giveaways. The Tigers also allowed 16 offensive rebounds. Ten of them went to Blazers forward Yaxel Lendeborg.

Each starter besides Dandridge finished the game with a negative plus-minus grade. Hardaway admitted it might be time for a change afterwards.

“I have so much pride. I took this job to win. I did not take this job to lose,” he said during his weekly radio show Monday. “I know they’re young men and they make mistakes. But at the end of the day, they have jobs to do as well. And when they don’t, you gotta change…I don’t know who’s gonna start on Wednesday, but you can best believe the 5 that will be out there will fight.”

Can Memphis fix its defense?

The Tigers’ defense has been putrid for the past month. They are now down to No. 87 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating, and have allowed at least 74 points in their last five games.

Their opponents are averaging 87.8 points per game and a 40.9% clip from 3-point range in that same span. Memphis, meanwhile, averaged 80 points in its last three games but didn’t win a single one of them. It allowed 97 points in Sunday’s loss at UAB.

Hardaway’s club can score all the points it wants to, but it has to give more effort on the defensive end for any of those buckets to matter moving forward. The sixth-year coach is well aware of this.

“You can’t give up 97 points…It’s basically just guarding your yard and rebounding the basketball to end the defensive segment,” Hardaway said Sunday. “We gotta get a group of guys—whoever it is—to go out there and understand that we have to defend and rebound. We can score with anyone.”

What Rice brings to the table

Scott Pera’s team has arguably been the worst in the AAC thus far. Rice is ranked No. 228 in KenPom and No. 248 in the NET with zero wins outside of Quad 4. It’s also 0-10 in Quads 1 through 3 this season. The 12th-place Owls have lost six of their last seven games.

Travis Evee is one of Rice’s few impact players. The 6-foot-1 guard averages 15.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals on 39.9% shooting. A fifth-year senior, Evee scored 15 points in last Saturday’s loss to Tulsa. He’s averaged at least 12.6 points in each of his five collegiate seasons.

Mekhi Mason is Evee’s primary backcourt mate. The 6-foot-5 sophomore puts up 13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.1 steals per game on 39.8% shooting. Mason has scored at least 13 points in each of his last six games.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-11 forward Max Fiedler (9.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game), 6-foot-4 guard Alem Huseinovic (41.6% from 3-point range) and 6-foot-9 forward Keanu Dawes (6.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game).

Rice scores 73.1 points per game while shooting 43.5% from the field and 32.3% from 3-point range. The Owls also average 36.1 rebounds and 15.1 assists, but turn the ball over 12.5 times per contest. Defensively, they rack up 11.4 forced turnovers, 6.2 steals and 3.3 blocks. KenPom slots them at No. 201 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 259 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis wins, because it has to. Right?

The Tigers’ at-large hopes are almost certainly over if they lose this game. Falling short simply isn’t an option here.

Expect an ugly, but decisive victory for Hardaway’s team.