The “Grizz Guys” of the 2024 Draft

Over the past few years, my favorite annual article to write has been looking at what specific prospects of each year’s draft match a specific statistical criteria in their NCAA careers that many Grizzlies players have met over the past decade. This started back in 2020, when I looked at how the college careers of players such as John Konchar, De’Anthony Melton, and Brandon Clarke were similar and applied a few statistical measurements to the 2020 class. That application helped identify Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman and Killian Tillie as specific targets for the Grizzlies, and each of them were either drafted or signed by Memphis.

Over time, with the some great insight from excellent NBA minds such as Bryan Kalbrosky, who helped identify three of the Grizzlies four 2022 draft picks, and recently Adam Pike (@GrizzliesFilm on X), this criteria has evolved into a more straightforward threshold that has really shed light on the type of player profiles the Grizzlies typically prefer to draft and add via trade or free agency. The updated metric threshold reads as this, based on statistical measures in a single season (via barttorvik.com in conference games):

.575 effective field goal percentage

13% assist rate

13% defensive rebounding rate rebounding rate

2% steal rate

2% block rate

100+ 2PAs

50+ 3PAs

This obviously is a very specific and detailed threshold, but that is the point to identify specific talents. A simpler and more qualitative way to describe these talents are “do a bit of everything” players that add value on both ends of the court in an efficient manner. With the Grizzlies continued need for offense, expanding the query to talents that are somewhat relevant scoring options both inside and beyond the arc seemed logical.

Since the 2018-2019 season, when Zach Kleiman was promoted to Assistant GM and now GM of the Grizzlies, several players that he has drafted or acquired have met or come close to the threshold listed above in a single season (mostly due to just missing the TS% measure). These talents include (going back to the 2012-2013 NCAA season):

Jake Laravia, David Roddy, Vince Williams Jr., Desmond Bane Xavier Tillman, Killian Tillie, Lamar Stevens, Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, John Konchar (2x), Jarrett Culver, Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton, Delon Wright (2X), Justise Winslow, Jae Crowder, Kyle Anderson, Marcus Smart

As can be seen, applying this statistical approach has a wide range of outcomes and typically does not identify true stars. But as the Grizzlies have developed their core of Morant, Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr., acquiring players who met this threshold in college has helped to identify many valuable role players who have helped Memphis become one of the more successful NBA teams in recent years. Furthermore, many of the most valuable role players currently in the NBA met this statistical threshold during their collegiate careers.

Of course, Memphis does not follow this avenue with every pick, especially in recent years. Ziaire Williams, Santi Aldama, and GG Jackson were each young, inefficent prospects but possessed more long term potential and upside than many of the names listed above. That approach has been the way Kleiman has decided to go the last two times he had a pick in top 10 of the NBA Draft, as he selected Morant and Williams. This year, Kleiman could once again decide to go with immense upside with the ninth pick in the draft. But with the Grizzlies already having an established core, and with a draft many feel may offer more productive role players than star-level talents, using the “Grizzcentric” threshold above could help identify one or multiple players to gain significant value from this draft.

Here are the “Grizz Guys” of the 2024 NBA Draft class that fit this threshold and could interest Memphis in this draft:

Reed Sheppard

At the top of the list could arguably be one of the most “Grizz Guys” we have seen in the Kleiman-led era. Sheppard easily meets and far exceeds the “Grizzcentric” threshold. In fact, if you were to increase the TS% measure to 65% while keeping all other measures in place, he is one of only two true freshman (Lonzo Ball in 2017) to meet that efficiently elite criteria since 2008.

Yes, Sheppard is certainly a small combo guard. But in this draft, the Grizzlies are likely looking for size, skill, and shooting. And, it seems in the mind of many, what Sheppard lacks in size he more than makes up for in skill and shooting. Plus, he clearly adds good value on defense, especially through event creation. And along with how young he is, the level of efficiency at which Sheppard shoots and creates events on both ends of the court likely gives him one of the highest floors in this class. That also means he could easily be one of the best values and be seen as one of the few prospects who could impact winning in his rookie season.

It is noteworthy that with Morant, Bane, and Smart all signed for multiple years in the Grizzlies backcourt, adding another combo guard, and one that is considered small in size, would be an odd fit. However, this specific player profile has been among the most valuable in terms of maximizing production during Taylor Jenkins time as coach. Even if the the fit may seem odd in terms of roster need, the Grizzlies could simply decide the potential upside in terms of shooting, efficiency, and overall efficiency is too intriguing to pass up. In fact, while many are suggesting Memphis could move up in the draft for Donovan Clingan, Reed Sheppard could be another sensible target based on what Memphis has prioritized in past drafts.

Devin Carter

Similar to Sheppard, Devin Carter is another player whose 2024 season easily landed in the “Grizz Guy” territory of draft prospects Memphis may prefer. In fact, though his TS% was slightly below 57.5%, Carter met each of the other categories in 2023. While the connection between Memphis’s interest in Carter may start with the fact his dad, Anthony Carter, is a Grizzlies assistant, the actual reason for the interest is likely because Carter offers value in so many ways. Furthermore, he has continued to improve his production outside of scoring while improving his scoring ability itself.

One difference between Sheppard and Carter is that Carter is over two years older than Sheppard. And with Carter, it should be noted that the big difference between his junior season and the previous two was a significant jump in his scoring efficiency, both inside and beyond the arc. Yet that is something that Memphis has placed value on before with picks, players who can show the ability to improve weaknesses over time. Carter meets the Grizzlies’ preferances as a player who plays hard, takes pride in offering value on both ends of the court, and plays bigger than his size. His rebounding production as a guard would be a welcome addition to the roster.

The other difference between Sheppard and Carter is that Carter would likely be available if the Grizzlies were to stay put at pick 9 or trade back. Based on the many different scenarios that could occur on draft night, Carter checks many of the boxes the Grizzlies have typically placed on value with their past draft picks.

Kyle Filipowski

In terms of their roster, it is well known to anyone that has followed the Grizzlies over the past year that they want to add one, if not multiple, bigs to their roster. This is the main reason for the continued speculation that Memphis could move up for Clingan. However, other teams have legitimate interest in Clingan as well, so a trade up scenario may not present itself. If that were to be the case, the Grizzlies could consider trading back. In that scenario, Kyle Filipowski stands out as a big that certainly meets the Grizzlies preferred traits.

To be fair, it certainly would be logical if Memphis prefers a more traditional center, such as Zach Edey. But what separates Filipowski from the other bigs in this draft is that he has produced significant volume from beyond the arc, and shows good comfort and production as a playmaker and scoring option on offense. Filipowski may not be as strong as other options when it comes to boards, screens, and blocks, but he could certainly fit in a “5-out” scheme if the Grizzlies once again prioritize shooting upside as their main focus for this offseason.

Isaiah Crawford

Isaiah Crawford has emerged as one of the most intriguing draft prospects during the lead-up to the 2024 NBA Draft. And it is not because of potential at a very young age, but how consistent he has been in terms of quality production in many different ways throughout his college career. Crawford actually met the above criteria all the way back in 2021, and has just fallen short of it due to TS% over the past two seasons. However, his elite ability to create events on defense along with elite accuracy from beyond the arc certainly makes him a logical Grizzlies target later this week.

Similar too many other guards and wings the Grizzlies have draft or acquired in recent years, Crawford certainly plays bigger than his actual size. And that versatility has been a major priority for the Grizzlies when it comes to finds in the later first and early second rounds of drafts. That would be the area of this draft that Crawford would likely be selected. With how much Kleiman likes to move around the draft boards in that specific area of the draft, and with pick 39 this season, Crawford could be a focus of the Grizzlies looking to make an additional pick this year. Though such a move likely depends on what the Grizzlies do with their lottery pick, Crawford’s resume as a prospect mirrors that of older prospects that have come to Memphis and thrived.

Jonathan Mogbo

Arguably the biggest riser over the past few months, Mogbo has rightfully caught the attention of many draft analysts (including many in Grizz Nation). While he may not be a threat from beyond the arc (and thus missed the threshold due to lack of three point shots), Mogbo is quite unique in terms of the value he adds outside of scoring. If a team is looking purely for a non-scoring event creator in this draft, Mogbo has a good chance to be at the top of the list.

Mogbo’s ability to create disruption on defense while also adding value as a passer on offense, to go along with his rebounding, means that when he is on the court, he is going to find multiple ways to contribute to winning basketball. His production reflects a player who is an uniquely gifted athlete at his size, which results in a unique but valuable contributor when he is on the court

As can be seen from the incredible draft analysis of Chip Williams Jr., Mogbo’s contributions this season certainly put him in rare but elite company. As a result, it seems like Mogbo could have one of the widest ranges of where he may be picked in the draft. For Memphis, who has already worked out Mogbo, he could be a potential target later in the draft if the Grizzlies look to make the move to get him.

Of course, well before the season ended, it was well-known that the Grizzlies likely target with their lottery pick could be a big. And with a strength of this draft being bigs who can play the “five” reasonably well, several prospects could make sense for Memphis. Though each of the names missed reaching the threshold above mainly due to steal rate and/or number of threes attempted, a few were close in their production that could make them stand out in this class:

Donovan Clingan, Zach Edey, Daron Holmes II and Kel’el Ware

If any of these four names were to wind up in a Grizzlies uniform to start their career, it could be a very valuable move that fits the biggest need for the Memphis roster.

And as much as we speak about Kleiman and the Grizzlies being consistent in their draft history as to which targets they prefer, it should be noted that the two times the Grizzlies have previously been in the lottery, they went with upside and potential over production. If Memphis feels this will be the highest they pick over the next several years, perhaps there is a prospect, such as Cody Williams or Stephon Castle, that they take a chance on. The Grizzlies could also go the international route in terms of the prospect they feel makes the most sense to select.

The point is, with Memphis having a lottery pick, the range of potential outcomes is far greater than in the past when the Grizzlies were picking later in the draft. But if Memphis once again prioritizes value and versatility, and their need for a big is resolved elsewhere, these names could be pursued by Memphis:

Reed Sheppard, Devin Carter, Kyle Filipowski, Isaiah Crawford, Jonathan Mogbo

However, many teams across the league are going to be interested in these same names for the same reason as Memphis. And that should factor into Wednesday and Thursday being quite an exciting time for the Grizzlies and their fanbase.