What to expect when Memphis basketball battles No. 2 UConn in Maui Invitational, plus a game prediction

The time for looking ahead is over.

Memphis basketball finally gets its shot at No. 2 UConn to open the Maui Invitational inside the Lahaina Civic Center Monday afternoon (1:30 p.m., ESPN2). The Tigers (4-0) also face either Michigan State or Colorado on Tuesday before concluding the tournament against North Carolina, Auburn, Iowa State or Dayton on Wednesday.

Memphis and UConn—which were fellow American Athletic Conference (AAC) members from 2013-2020—each boast eight wins in their all-time series. All but one of their 16 meetings took place when the two were AAC rivals. Tigers coach Penny Hardaway is 2-1 vs. UConn coach Dan Hurley.

Hardaway’s club (No. 32 in KenPom) already owns victories over Missouri (No. 50), UNLV (No. 91) and San Francisco (No. 56) this season. But defeating the back-to-back national champions would be Memphis’ biggest feat of the year so far. It could be among the best in Hardaway’s seven-year tenure too.

“This is the type of stuff that you live for when you’re a competitor,” he said last Tuesday. “Let’s see if we’re up for the challenge.”

Here’s what to expect when the Tigers battle the Huskies.

Can Memphis avoid another sloppy start?

Memphis’ offense looked putrid in the first halves of the Missouri and UNLV games earlier this month.

Thursday’s win over San Francisco continued that trend. The Tigers—after allowing a 10-1 run to open the contest—hit a grand total of 6 field goals in the first half, and shot a dastardly 24% from the field and 29% on 3-pointers in the process. They also committed 10 turnovers compared to USF’s 7 during the period, and trailed 31-22 at halftime.

Memphis’ saving grace, however, is that the Dons didn’t experience much first-half offense either, shooting 35% overall and 25% from beyond the arc. The Tigers quickly took advantage by beginning the second half with a 10-0 run and outscoring USF 46-33 on 48.1% shooting.

Hardaway is satisfied with yet another comeback victory, but he also knows it may be impossible against UConn.

“We gotta stop doing this. [We] gotta stop putting ourselves in this situation,” he said postgame.

Does Dain Dainja have an encore?

Illinois transfer Dain Dainja came off the bench for the first time this season against San Francisco.

The 6-foot-9 center entered the game at the 16:09 mark in the first half, scored his first bucket 20 seconds later and never looked back. Dainja went on to have his best performance yet, leading the Tigers with 18 points (60% shooting), 7 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals.

Lead guards PJ Haggerty (22.5 points per game) and Tyrese Hunter (13.5 points) already provide high-octane scoring to Hardaway’s team, and more outputs like this from Dainja could make Memphis’ offense even more dangerous.

One would certainly be helpful vs. the Huskies.

“Going into the game, we knew we had to get the ball inside. We felt like we had an advantage on the inside with [Dainja] and it worked,” Hardaway said postgame. “We kept feeding him the entire game, and he showed up for us. So, we’re definitely gonna need that moving forward as well.”

What UConn brings to the table

Hurley’s team (4-0) looks much different from last year’s championship-winning squad.

Starters Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle defected to the NBA this offseason, leaving junior forward Alex Karaban as UConn’s only major returnee. The Huskies—No. 6 on KenPom and No. 12 on Bart Torvik—haven’t played a top-300 KenPom opponent, so Memphis should be their biggest challenge to date.

Karaban, 6-foot-8, currently leads UConn with 16.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4 assists and 3.3 blocks per game while shooting 63.6% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point range (6 tries per contest). Karaban’s season-low shooting mark is 50%. He also blocked 7 shots against Sacred Heart.

Guard Solo Ball is now a full-time starter after playing as a reserve last season. The 6-foot-3 sophomore averages 13.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.3 steals while shooting 57.6% overall and 47.4% on 3-pointers.

Freshman Liam McNeeley is a former 5-star prospect in the Class of 2024. The 6-foot-7 forward puts up 13.5 points and 7 rebounds per contest, shooting 50% on field goals and 38.9% from deep. McNeeley has already recorded two double-doubles this year.

Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr. hopes to replace Clingan as UConn’s top big man. The 6-foot-8 junior averages 11.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks on 73.9% shooting. Reed has notched two double-doubles despite not starting a game thus far.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-7 forward Jayden Ross (9.3 points and 3 rebounds), 6-foot-2 guard Hassan Diarra (6.5 points and 4.5 assists), 6-foot-10 center Samson Johnson (5.8 points and 3 rebounds) and 6-foot-3 guard Aidan Mahaney (5.8 points).

The Prediction

UConn manages a close win over Memphis.

The Tigers have a good shot to win this game, especially considering that UConn is a group full of unknowns. But it’s a bit too hard to bet against the defending champions right now.

Expect a fun one either way, with Memphis giving its all for 40 minutes.