What to expect when No. 19 Memphis hosts East Carolina, plus a game prediction

It’s all risk and no reward for No. 19 Memphis this weekend.

The Tigers (12-3, 2-0 AAC) host East Carolina (9-7, 1-2 AAC) inside FedExForum on Saturday (1 p.m., ESPN+). The Pirates are currently No. 209 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, making this a Quad 4 opportunity for the Tigers.

It’s also the first of 15 Quad 3 and 4 games Memphis will play in its American Athletic Conference (AAC) schedule. Winning these games does little for the Tigers’ already-strong NCAA Tournament resume (10 wins in Quads 1 and 2), but too many losses can rip it to shreds. Coach Penny Hardaway knows all too well, since last year’s Tigers missed the NCAA Tournament with four Quad 3 and 4 losses.

“Don’t remind me,” he said Wednesday. “This year is just way different, because we know what every game means. We’re not overlooking anyone.”

Current inclement weather might affect Saturday’s game. The 901 is expecting 4-6 inches of snowfall on Friday, according to a winter weather briefing from NWS Memphis. The report tells Memphians to “expect considerable disruptions to daily life,” including “dangerous or impossible driving conditions.” Any snow or ice likely won’t melt until Sunday.

Memphis’ home game against South Florida on Jan. 18, 2024, last season saw low attendance due to icy road conditions like the ones that could appear this weekend. But the school—like last year—doesn’t plan on canceling or postponing the game, according to a statement sent to Bluff City Media on Thursday.

Hardaway recently told reporters he watched other cars slide off the road while driving to the aforementioned USF game, which he now thinks shouldn’t have been played. So, the seventh-year headman isn’t exactly thrilled about more snow coming to town.

“When the snowstorm started to show up on the forecast for Friday, I was like, ‘Bro, let’s not go through this again,’” he said.

Here’s what to expect when the Tigers take on the Pirates.

Less minutes for lead guards?

It’s hard to comprehend wanting your best players to see fewer minutes, but that’s one of Hardaway’s top goals right now.

Star guard PJ Haggerty (22.2 points per game) is the No. 5 scorer in Division I and a midseason contender for the John R. Wooden Award, which is annually given to the country’s most outstanding player. Fellow guards Tyrese Hunter (15.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists) and Colby Rogers (12.5 points) are also extremely vital.

But the three backcourt mates are on the court too much. Haggerty plays 36.4 minutes per game. That ties for the 5th-most in college basketball. Hunter and Rogers, meanwhile, log 35.1 and 32.3 minutes respectively. Haggerty played 38 of 40 minutes in the Tigers’ win over North Texas last Sunday.

Hardaway—not wanting to run his key assets to death—aims to establish more depth throughout Memphis’ conference slate. Between sophomore Baraka Okojie, senior PJ Carter, freshman Jared Harris and midseason transfer Dante Harris (no relation), the Tigers need guys to step up.

“We’re gonna have to get more rotation, so we can kinda get after people a little bit more. In the non-conference, [a smaller rotation] made sense. In the conference, not so much.” Hardaway said on his weekly radio show Monday. “In conference—not disrespecting any team—it shouldn’t take PJ Haggerty to play 38-39 minutes [for us to win].”

It’s time to cut down on turnovers.

Ball security is one of Memphis’ only true weaknesses this season.

The Tigers commit 14.5 turnovers per game (No. 327 in Division I), and have finished with less than 10 giveaways just once this season against Michigan State in the Maui Invitational.

Memphis racked up 20—a season-high—in its loss to Arkansas State last month, and recorded 19 and 15 respectively in its first two AAC games with Florida Atlantic and North Texas. Dain Dainja’s 7 turnovers vs. UNT is the most any Tiger has compiled in a game this season, while Haggerty (4.0) averages the most per contest.

Hardaway is now more keen on holding his players accountable for losing possessions. He’s even making them run in practice if they commit “bad turnovers.”

“I brought my ball rack back. The ball rack is every turnover that the guards make. Once the ball rack gets filled up, we take all the balls off, then it’s 17s. Yes, it’s that important,” he said. “We’re not trying to take the aggression away from the guards…so I kinda define which turnovers are the worst. It’s the lazy, nonchalant, unforced turnovers that we just can’t have. We’d rather have a shot attempt.”

What East Carolina brings to the table

East Carolina is struggling in coach Mike Schwartz’s third season with six losses in its last eight games.

The Pirates are No. 174 in KenPom and No. 197 in Bart Torvik, and own no victories outside of Quads 3 and 4. KenPom also ranks ECU No. 191 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 171 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

RJ Felton is in his fourth season at East Carolina. The 6-foot-3 guard averages 17.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 steals on 39.2% shooting. Felton has compiled three double-doubles this year—including a 23-point, 12-rebound outing against Temple on Wednesday. He totaled 19 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists in last year’s meeting with Memphis.

UCF transfer C.J. Walker is playing his sixth season of college basketball. The 6-foot-8 forward puts up 16.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game on 52.4% shooting. Walker also boasts four double-doubles this year. He averaged 7.8 points and 4 rebounds in six matchups with Memphis while at UCF (2020-22).

Temple transfer Jordan Riley is another good backcourt scorer. The 6-foot-4 guard averages 14.4 points and 6 rebounds on 48% shooting. Riley has scored double-digit points in all but two games this season. He recorded 13 points and 9 rebounds against Memphis last year with Temple.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-3 guard Cam Hayes (9.8 points, 3.9 assists and 2.4 rebounds), 6-foot-6 guard Yann Farrell (6.1 points on 37.1% 3-point shooting) and 6-foot-7 guard Jayshayne Woodard (5.8 points and 4.1 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis wins with relative ease.

The snowy climate might give flashbacks to last year’s disastrous loss to South Florida, where the Tigers blew a 20-point second-half lead. But that almost certainly won’t happen against an ECU team shooting 27.5% from 3-point range.

Expect pure domination from Hardaway’s club.