What to expect in No. 18 Memphis’ rematch with Rice, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball is inching closer to its first regular-season conference championship since 2013, and what would be its first in the American Athletic Conference (AAC).

The Tigers (22-5, 12-2 AAC) are going to have to earn it, though, because their last four regular-season games take place over a nine-day span. The gauntlet begins with Memphis’ second meeting with Rice (13-15, 4-11 AAC) inside FedExForum on Wednesday (7 p.m., ESPN+).

Penny Hardaway’s club follows that up by visiting Bartow Arena for a highly-anticipated showdown with third-place UAB on Sunday, which will be its fourth Quad 2 opportunity in AAC play. After that, Memphis gets a one-day reprieve before playing at UTSA next Tuesday. The Tigers then conclude the regular season back at home against South Florida on March 7.

“It’s like a tournament,” Hardaway said during his weekly radio show Monday. “At the end of the season, you’re trying to position yourself to be the best. We’re still in the lead [in the AAC]. We’re still in control of our own destiny, so every game counts.”

Hardaway won’t put his team in cruise control during the next two weeks, but he’s still looking ahead to the title that’s probably in Memphis’ near future. He understands the stakes of this final stretch before next month’s AAC Tournament, and wants his players to be just as aware.

That’s why he and assistant coach Nolan Smith gave the Tigers a video presentation of what’s ahead at Monday’s team meeting.

“You have to give the vision,” Hardaway said. “We’re not overlooking anyone, but they need to know how far we are from touching a trophy for the regular season. I think that’s healthy.”

Here’s what to expect when No. 18 Memphis hosts the Owls.

“Dainja Zone” is taking over.

Dain Dainja’s unique blend of size, post scoring, ball-handling and playmaking is paying dividends for Memphis in conference play.

The 6-foot-9 center notches 14.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game on 64.8% shooting against conference foes. His point average rises to 16.4 since he became a permanent starter eight games ago.

Dainja feasted with 22 points, 11 rebounds, 4 blocks and 3 steals against Florida Atlantic last Sunday—his fourth double-double this season after recording two in the first three years of his college career. He also boasts seven outings of 3 or more assists in 2024-25, which he never did once prior to becoming a Tiger.

The Brooklyn Park, Minnesota native won a national title at Baylor, and reached the Elite Eight with Illinois last season. He now hopes the fan base he’s connected with so deeply this year can experience a similar high come March.

He made that clear amongst patrons at Brookhaven Pub & Grill Monday.

“I just wanna win here. I love Memphis. I love the fans,” Dainja said. “I love you guys. You guys are so supportive.”

Dainja also looks to have a better outing against Rice than he did last time. He scored just 6 points and committed 4 fouls in Memphis’ visit to Tudor Fieldhouse earlier this month.

Will Dink Yates get more playing time?

The 6-foot-5 guard hasn’t played much this season—just 22 total minutes before last Sunday, in fact.

But Hardaway knows Yates isn’t the average walk-on, and can spark his team if need be. That’s exactly what the Fayette-Ware product did against Florida Atlantic.

Yates checked in at the 13:15 mark in the first half with Memphis trailing 9-4. The Tigers then outscored FAU 14-11 over the next five minutes and 32 seconds before subbing out again with 7:43 left in the period. He racked up 2 points, 2 assists, a rebound and a steal in seven first-half minutes.

“I think he was looking at someone’s popcorn [when I subbed him in]…He was shocked,” Hardaway said. “Last year, I played Joe Cooper. He was a walk-on. I played Tadarius Jacobs a couple years ago. He was a walk-on. So, for me, if you’re working hard, I’ll reward that.”

Yates’ spurt likely won’t earn him an increased role moving forward, but Hardaway still considers his energy invaluable. So invaluable that he’s technically not even a walk-on anymore.

“Dink is a walk-on, but I gave him a scholarship a long time ago,” Hardaway said.

What happened last time?

Memphis seemingly had Rice beat with an 11-point lead and less than three minutes to play. But Rob Lanier’s team went down swinging.

Rice unleashed an 11-2 run over the next two minutes. A missed foul shot by PJ Haggerty led to a Jacob Dar 3-pointer that trimmed Memphis’ advantage to 82-81 with 12 seconds remaining. Haggerty then redeemed himself with two makes at the charity stripe, but Trae Broadnax did the same after Tyrese Hunter fouled him to prevent a 3-pointer that could’ve tied the game.

Hunter then faced heavy pressure during the following inbound, but PJ Carter willed himself open, caught the ball and drew a Rice foul just before a five-second violation. Carter, who’s missed just one free throw this year, drilled two to put Memphis back up by 3 points. The Tigers then forced a five-second violation that looked to have ended the game, but Broadnax stole the ball from Hunter to earn Rice one last possession.

Carter didn’t panic, though, swatting Broadnax’s full-court heave as time expired on the Owls. He finished the game with 19 points while shooting 6-for-9 from the field and 5-of-7 from 3-point range, which greatly helped Memphis secure the 86-83 victory.

Haggerty, who grew up 25 minutes away from Houston, starred in his return home with 26 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals on 11-of-18 shooting. Hunter totaled 19 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals on 63% shooting.

Rice is since 2-4 in its last six games with double-digit wins over East Carolina and Tulsa. Its four losses to Charlotte, North Texas, Tulane and UAB, meanwhile, have all been within 6 or less points. Bart Torvik slots the Owls at No. 101 overall, No. 48 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 229 in adjusted defensive in that span.

Broadnax, who dropped 19 points against Memphis on Feb. 2, still leads Rice in scoring with 12.9 points per game. Dar and Alem Huseinovic scored 17 and 13 respectively in the first meeting.

The Prediction

Memphis endures another tough effort from Rice.

The Owls aren’t winning too often, but Lanier still has his team playing solid basketball as of late. The Tigers might be in for a second scare if they aren’t careful.

Expect Memphis to stay unbeaten at home in AAC play.