What to expect in No. 18 Memphis’ rematch with UAB, plus a game prediction

The most anticipated American Athletic Conference (AAC) game of 2024-25 happens this weekend.

The first-place Memphis Tigers (23-5, 13-2 AAC) meet the second-place UAB Blazers (19-9, 12-3 AAC) inside Bartow Arena with the conference championship potentially at stake, since both teams only play twice more in the regular season after Sunday (3 p.m., ESPN).

A Memphis win gives it a season sweep of UAB and a two-game edge over the Blazers in the AAC standings, putting the Tigers in prime position to win the league. A UAB victory, meanwhile, creates a three-way tie between itself, North Texas (currently tied with UAB for second place) and Memphis atop the leaderboard.

Tigers coach Penny Hardaway has listed an AAC regular-season title as one of his top goals many times this year, largely because he hasn’t won one since assuming his role in March 2018.

“It’s very important to me. If any coach tells you that it’s not, it is…I understand what it means,” he said Wednesday. “I’ve been in it [for] seven years. I want that feeling. I want that for our team.”

Less than 500 tickets remain available for the contest, according to UAB Athletics, so Blazers fans clearly know what’s on the line too. Hardaway expects nothing less than a jam-packed atmosphere in Birmingham, Alabama.

“If I know Andy Kennedy (UAB coach) the way that I think I do, he’s gonna have a packed crowd on the early game as loud as he can have them,” he said. “It’s gonna be a bare-knuckle fight when you go into UAB.”

Here’s what to expect in this year’s second basketball edition of the “Battle for the Bones,” with a much more valuable trophy possibly up for grabs.

Dain Dainja vs. Yaxel Lendeborg

Dainja and Lendeborg began their own feud during and after Memphis’ victory over UAB on Jan. 26.

Dainja embarrassed Lendeborg—the AAC Preseason Player of the Year—by postering him less than four minutes into the game. The 6-foot-9 center dominated the Blazers from there, finishing with 21 points, 8 rebounds, a block and a steal while shooting 10-of-12 from the field in just 25 minutes. He even scored 10 consecutive Memphis points over a three-minute span in the first half.

That was the first of nine consecutive games in the Tigers’ starting lineup for Dainja, who’s averaged 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks on 69.4% shooting in those outings.

“I feel like I’m the best big in this conference, and it’s not even close,” he told Tigers play-by-play man Dave Woloshin postgame.

Dainja then added more fuel to the fire during his press conference with local reporters.

“I didn’t even know who he was,” he said. “I didn’t know he was Preseason Player of the Year until we had the scout on him. I knew he was good, but I didn’t know all that…No disrespect, but I just [don’t] see it.”

Lendeborg responded to Dainja’s comments on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

“Congrats on the best game of your career bro! I’ll see you,” he wrote.

“lol… BET,” Dainja then replied.

Dainja hasn’t publicly spoken about Lendeborg since January, and ensured that didn’t change after Memphis’ win over Rice on Wednesday.

“Y’all better not ask me about bro,” he said with a laugh. “Don’t try me.”

Hardaway is a fan of the rivalry, and is excited as anyone for the rematch between the two big men.

“When you get these rivalries, you don’t have to like each other. It’s a mutual respect for one another, but there’s a hatred between the players,” he said. “[Lendeborg] and Dain went at it. I think that’s great for the game, and it’s gonna bring a lot more energy to that game on Sunday.”

Less free throws for PJ Haggerty?

Haggerty (21.3 points per game, No. 6 in Division I) attempted 309 free throws last season at Tulsa, good for second in the country behind former Purdue center and current Memphis Grizzly Zach Edey.

He boasts 207 tries (No. 10 in Division I) so far this year, but officials aren’t sending him to the line nearly as often throughout AAC play. He shot nine free throws Wednesday against Rice, but previously hadn’t attempted more than seven since Jan. 16 at Temple.

The 6-foot-3 guard controversially hoisted 0 foul shots against Florida Atlantic last Sunday, which hadn’t happened to him since Jan. 7, 2024.

“Every game is different. Every ref [is] different. Some of them are gonna give me the calls, whether it’s a foul or not. I mean, most of them really be fouls,” Haggerty said on Feb. 23. “[I’m] really just trying to play through the contact if they foul me, whether I get the free throw or not. [If I] just keep playing, I think more fouls will come.”

Haggerty’s frustration finally boiled over against Rice, receiving a technical foul at the 7:34 mark in the second half for yelling at an official—a rarity for the normally cool, collected superstar.

“Maybe someone called in, [but] they’re not giving PJ calls anymore when he goes to the basket. They’re saying he’s flopping,” Hardaway said. “PJ got frustrated, because he went last game without a free throw and he hit the ground at least five times. And then today, the same thing. He didn’t get the free throws he felt like he deserved.

“We don’t want anything given to us. If he gets fouled, we just want the call. I know they can make mistakes, but that’s where the technical came from.”

What happened last time?

Dainja’s thunderous performance boosted Memphis to a 100-77 demolition of UAB at FedExForum.

The Tigers led wire-to-wire while shooting 62% overall and 53% on 3-pointers. The Blazers, meanwhile, shot just 38% from both the field and beyond the arc.

Haggerty finished with a game-high 23 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds and 3 steals. PJ Carter scored 14 points on 50% perimeter shooting. Colby Rogers totaled 12 points (4-for-7 shooting), 3 rebounds and 3 steals. Nick Jourdain notched 11 points (4-for-7 shooting), 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. Moussa Cisse and Tyrese Hunter both added 9 points. Cisse grabbed 8 rebounds too, while Hunter distributed 4 assists.

Every Tiger logged a positive plus-minus score.

UAB bounced back with a 7-1 record since the defeat, though, including two Quad 2 wins vs. North Texas and at Wichita State. The latter broke a six-game winning streak for the Shockers, who upset Memphis on Feb. 16. Bart Torvik slots the Blazers at No. 84 overall, No. 28 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 252 in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span.

Lendeborg still leads UAB in all major facets (17.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.6 steals per game). Alejandro Vasquez (11.8 points) has scored at least 15 points in his last four games, and tied a career-high with 29 points at WSU on Thursday.

Christian Coleman (11.3 points and 7.2 rebounds) hopes to perform better against the Tigers after compiling 6 points and 5 boards last time. Efrem “Butta” Johnson (9.5 points), meanwhile, looks to build on his 21-point showing in Memphis.

The Prediction

Memphis wins a hard-fought battle.

This is probably the Tigers’ biggest test in AAC play, but they won’t falter here with so much on the line. Dainja becomes the No. 1 heel in Birmingham by outclassing Lendeborg once again.

Expect Memphis to inch closer to the AAC regular-season title.