The Endless Search for Jaren Jackson Jr.’s Ceiling

Usually, by the time players finish their fifth season, their path in the NBA is fairly clear. At a point, you are who you are. There are superstars and there are role players, and generally we as NBA fans and writers are able to place players into one of these categories by that stage of a player’s career. Coming into this season, Jaren Jackson Jr. was a question mark. A year later and he is still a relative unknown.

Jackson is not an unknown in the sense that it is unclear what category he fits into. He is an unknown because we can not find a ceiling. The 23-year-old already has a Defensive Player of the Year award, two All-Defensive First Team recognitions and an All-Star selection. He has grown every year of his career, with his most recent leap sending him into new conversations.

The question looming over the Grizzlies organization is what Jackson can become, and what he will look like at the ultimate peak of his powers. Sure, fans are clamoring for a trade and Ja Morant is still the face of the franchise, but Memphis’ championship hopes rest on Jackson’s potential.

Despite Jackson’s phenomenal season, he still has his doubters. He has had naysayers his entire career. Most of these cynics are uninformed, guided by misconceptions. One of his biggest critiques is how often he gets into foul trouble. Jackson averaged 3.6 fouls per game in 2023. In over half of the games he played, he was without Steven Adams and served as the team’s only rim protector. Jackson seems to always find a way into foul trouble during nationally televised games, tainting his image.

There is also a popular misunderstanding that Jackson is injury prone. He played 58 games during his rookie season. The year after Jackson played 57 games in a season shortened by COVID-19. He suffered his first serious injury in the NBA Bubble, where he tore his meniscus. He only played 11 games in the 2021 season due to the injury from the year prior. Jackson played 78 of 82 games in the 2022 season. Offseason surgery kept him out for the first few weeks of last season, but he returned nearly a month before many expected him to return. He played 63 of 82 games last year – the second most of all Grizzlies starters. 

While Jackson has had his share of injuries and has issues with fouls from time to time, these flaws are overblown and overshadow all of the extraordinary things he does on the court. Voters and Twitter users were making up unique reasons to give the Defensive Player of the Year award to anyone but Jackson. Not even foul trouble or a minutes-played argument I have never heard before was enough to stop Jackson from getting his well-deserved Defensive honors. 

Brook Lopez is a great defender.

But he is neither the best rim protector in the league nor the NBA’s best defender this year.

Those labels belong to Jaren Jackson Jr.

Minutes played would matter if the numbers below were close.

The numbers below are not close. https://t.co/vbAtswqkFs

— Shawn Coleman (@StatsSAC) March 22, 2023

Jackson was a historically good defender this past season. He averaged three blocks per game and was tied for second in total blocks despite playing 15 fewer games than Brook Lopez, the league leader. He was second in block percentage, sixth in defensive win shares and tied for fourth in individual defensive rating. He averaged four stocks per game, the most in his career and of anyone in 2023. 

His mere presence deterred defenders from attacking the rim and in the instance they did they usually learned to not test the “Block Panther”. When Jackson was off the court, Memphis’s defense fell apart. With JJJ on the bench, the Grizzlies were -5.5 points per possession and were -4.0% in effective field goal percentage, per Cleaning the Glass.

Jackson’s defensive dominance overshadowed his offensive growth. The 23-year-old evolved offensively, showing his ability to carry the Grizzlies as the primary option at times. JJJ reached a career-high in points, rebounds, offensive rebounds, two-point percentage and effective field goal percentage. Jackson showed that he is much more than a lob threat or a pick-and-pop option. He can create his own shot, play off the dribble and overpower opponents to get clean shots at the rim. 

Only 30% of Jackson’s shot attempts last year were three-point attempts, the lowest percentage of his career. He got to the basket with frequency this season – 43% of his shot attempts were at the rim, up from 33% in 2021-2022. While he did not take many mid-range jumpers, he shot a career-best 48% from the area. Jackson averaged nearly five free throw attempts per game and drew the most shooting fouls of his career in 2023. 

Jackson had a +8.8 on/off point differential which places him in the 92nd percentile of all NBA Players. More than ever, Jackson was a threat with the ball in his hands which opened up the offense for Morant and Desmond Bane. His growth on both sides of the ball is what helped the Grizzlies survive injuries from Bane, Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke and Morant. Once he returned to the court in November, Jackson was the one constant for Memphis. 

When Morant left the team in early March, Jackson stepped up as the team’s star player. His wonderous play sparked debates asking if he should be Memphis’s primary option. From March 15 to the end of the regular season, Jackson averaged 25.5 points on 57.1/41.7/77.1 shooting splits, along with 7.4 rebounds and 2.6 blocks. In one game against the Rockets, Jackson dropped 37 points on 14/20 shooting and 10 rebounds. Against the Pelicans, JJJ had 40 points, 9 rebounds and four blocks. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. vs New Orleans Pelicans

40 PTS
9 REB
3 AST
1 STL
4 BLK
13/28 FG
11/12 FT#Grizzlies #BigMemphis #NBA pic.twitter.com/8dLcDtdrxP

— A Walking Highlight (@11AWH) April 6, 2023

It looked as if Jackson was prepared to continue that dominance in the playoffs. He finished with 31 points on 61.9% from the field and 50% from three-point. Jackson disappeared in the final 5 games, diminished by Anthony Davis’s dominance. He averaged only 15.4 points on 35.3% from the field and 23.8% from deep after game 1. JJJ’s shooting struggles are on the long list of reasons Memphis made an early playoff exit. Jackson had proven to be one of the league’s most talented young big men but when up against Davis, he was outmatched. 

Jackson will be 24 when the Grizzlies next take the court. Unlike a year ago, he now has a whole offseason to work on his game and does not have to spend time recovering from surgery. As I said at the top, we are yet to find Jackson’s ceiling. As a defender, Jackson has already proven himself to be among the best in the league. If he is able to combine that with the flashes of elite offense he showed throughout last season, there is no telling just how good he will be. Developing a midrange jumper and improving his pick-and-roll chemistry with Morant are some of the next steps Jackson needs to take to grow offensively.

Jackson is not Morant’s sidekick. He is his co-star. For the Grizzlies to reach the NBA’s mountaintop, Jackson and Morant, along with Bane, must reach their full potential. All-NBA is on the horizon for Jackson. His teammate already secured that honor a year ago, and as long as Jackson is healthy, he is up next. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. said the leadership with him, Ja, and Bane is about making sure people come in and know the program here. Work together and spend as much time as a time to build chemistry – it’ll pay off

— Parker Fleming (@PAKA_FLOCKA) April 30, 2023

While the Grizzlies battled adversity on and off the court, Jackson remained steady and produced his best season as a pro. Even if the season’s final result was a disappointment, Jackson’s excellence was one of Memphis’s bright spots. In just 63 games, Trip redefined how NBA fans and writers talk about him, moving him into a new echelon we did not expect.

Jaren Jackson Jr. was Memphis’s most valuable player in 2023.