Can the Grizzlies continue their 1st quarter success this season?

Over the past few seasons, there have been several reasons as to the why the Grizzlies have been among the best regular season teams in the NBA:

-development of their core, particularly Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., around Ja Morant

-Effort plays, such as turnovers, fast breaks, and offensive rebounds, leading to extra possessions

-Productive and versatile depth to navigate injuries to significant roster pieces

-becoming one of the best defensive teams in the NBA

-becoming one of the best home teams in the NBA

All of these factors have allowed Memphis to find plenty of success over the past two seasons as they finished among the best in the West. Especially once the calendar hit December, the Grizzlies have consistently been able to find ways to win. If Memphis is hoping better play at the start of the season could result in plenty of wins even without Ja Morant, good production in many of the aforementioned areas is the way to make it happen.

Furthermore, another big key for the Grizzlies is remaining consistent when it comes to being one of the best first quarter teams in the NBA. Over the past two seasons, the Grizzlies have finished 1st (2021-2022) and 2nd (2022-2023) in first quarter NET RATING. They are the only team to produce a +10 or better NET Rating in the first quarter in each of the last two seasons. While setting the tone defensively has been a major factor in the Grizzlies starting off games in effective fashion, they also have had some of their best offensive quarters during the opening quarter of games.

In fact, the Grizzlies having a good offensive start to games has a very high correlation with Memphis earning a win. Memphis has produced 13 40+ point first quarters over the past two years, tied with Minnesota for the most in the NBA over the past two seasons. Memphis is 13-0 in such games. On a more frequent basis, the Grizzlies have produced 30+ first quarter points in 91 games over the past two years, second to only Milwaukee in the NBA. The Grizzlies have a .747 winning percentage in those 91 games, fourth highest in the league. They are also 5-2 in such games in the playoffs. In other words, if Memphis is generating consistent offense in the opening quarter of a game, they are very tough to beat.

The interesting detail for Memphis’s success in the first quarter of last season was that the Grizzlies did it in different ways throughout the campaign. For instance, in October and November of last year, the Grizzlies were 5th in first quarter NET RTG, with a +9.9 mark. This was the result of a 117.3 OFF RTG (8th in NBA) and 107.4 DEF RTG (5th in NBA) during this time frame. Two key factors for the Grizzlies offensively was leading the league in first quarter FGAs and producing the most first quarter points in the paint. They were finding ways to consistently get shots close to the rim, rather it be off the dribble, good ball movement, or offensive rebounds. As a result, the Grizzlies were setting the tone early and getting some pretty sizable leads in the games.

Once December arrived, the Grizzlies first quarter production fell off the high standard it started with early in the season, though it remained above average compared to the rest of the league. Between the start of December through the end of the first half of the season (2/15/2023), the Grizzlies produced the 8th best NET RTG in the league, a +4.5 mark. However, the Grizzlies play was a bit less balanced, as their first quarter OFF RTG dropped to 25th in the league while their DEF RTG improved to second overall over this time frame. Once Jackson Jr. returned and got into full game shape, the Grizzlies emerged as one of the best teams in the league at defending inside the arc and creating turnovers. As a result, the Grizzlies were able to create plenty of leads by setting the tone early defensively.

Once the second half of last season arrived, the Grizzlies source of success once again had to be adjusted. A season-ending injury to Steven Adams, the inconsistent availability of Morant, and the trade for sharpshooter Luke Kennard meant the strategy for the Grizzlies, especially offensively, would look different from the first half of the season. Of course, the end result was the Grizzlies having by far the best first quarter NET RTG in the NBA in the second half of last season.

The Grizzlies first quarter NET RTG in the second half of last year was +18.6. The next highest first quarter NET RTG over that time frame was +11.9. Memphis had the sixth best OFF RTG (120.6) and the best overall DEF RTG (102.0), and they outscored their opponents by 122 total points over 25 games. That was 38 more points than the second best point margin, and was a direct result of the offense becoming more balanced with the addition of Kennard and the offensive leap from Jackson Jr.

The big key for Memphis was offensive balance. Memphis was fourth in the NBA in both first quarter three pointers and fewest first quarter turnovers in the second half of last year. That means the Grizzlies were consistently getting opportunities to score and were much more efficient at converting those opportunities than in the first half of the season, especially from deep. Memphis also continued to be arguably the best team in the league at setting a defensive tone from the opening tip, making it tough on opponents to find success from inside arc plus also defending the three much better than it had earlier in the season. In fact, Grizzlies opponents made 37.8% of their first quarter threes in the first half of last year. They made only 30.5% of their first quarter threes in the second half of last year.

As can be seen, the Grizzlies first quarter success from last year was due to the roster successfully adjusting its start of the game strategies based on the avaliable personnel as the season progressed. It should be noted that the Grizzlies benefitted greatly from having either Ja Morant or Tyus Jones direct the offense to open games last year, a luxury Memphis will not have until late December this year. However, Memphis will regain the efforts of Steven Adams, have one of the best shooting duos in Kennard and Bane, and one of the best defensive duos in the league in newcomer Marcus Smart and Jaren Jackson Jr.

In other words, the Grizzlies personnel to start this season will look similar to what the Grizzlies had avaliable during their best stretch of first quarter play last season. Yes, Memphis will be without Dillon Brooks, Jones, or Morant, but featuring more of Bane and Kennard along with the efforts on both ends of the court from Smart should allow for balance and consistency. On offense, the rebounding efforts of Adams, improved play around the rim from Jackson Jr., and overall shooting depth for the Grizzlies could result in a more balanced approach, much like the end of last year. Defensively, the overall impact of Smart and Jackson Jr. should help the other Grizzlies defend better when it comes to their assignments. If Memphis can limit the opposition’s success from three while also causing some turnovers, the Grizzlies will once again be among the best first quarter defenses in the NBA.

While many other questions about the Grizzlies are hard to answer without the start of the season being here, there should be high confidence that, even without Morant, this Grizzlies team can get off to effective starts through its defense and shooting. The big key will then be to not give up the established leads later in the game, especially in the fourth quarter. Without Morant, the strength of this Grizzlies team is clearly its defense. And common knowledge suggests defensive minded teams play better with leads than trying to come from behind.

As a result, if Memphis can set the tone early through its defense while also finding shots from deep and hitting open looks, the Grizzlies can get off to a good start and be in a great place once Morant returns.