Game Preview: Grizzlies vs Mavericks (1/09/2024)

When: Tuesday, January 9th, 9:00 PM CST

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

How to Watch/Stream: NBA TV

The last time I was writing a preview piece, the Grizzlies had just lost to the newly constructed Toronto Raptors and were heading into their first of three consecutive road games out West, having to face the Lakers, Suns, and now Mavericks. Counting the aforementioned loss to the Raptors, the squad was 1-4 in their last five and had seemingly lost all the momentum that came with Ja’s return.

Sitting in front of my keyboard, I declared that moment as a potential low in this Grizzlies season. Even amidst the injuries, the mockery from the national media, the head-scratching coaching choices, and so many other embarrassments, at least those moments we as fans always had the element of waiting for something more. There was always a feeling that better times were just around the corner.

Against the Raptors, we saw a roster who hadn’t played a week together cooking our core and were even up by 20+ at one point. Since that moment, I’ve seen a completely different team. Marcus Smart and JJJ stepped up to carry the load vs the Lakers, and JJJ continued that positive momentum into a fabulous performance vs the Suns. Both were must-win games, and the team pulled through both times with amazing 4th quarter performances.

As you can see, the team really has turned a corner over the last two games. This form is made even more impressive (and believable) considering the win against the Suns came without Ja.

But now with Morant lost for season, the Grizzlies will have to continued figuring out ways to win without their superstar point guard.

Checking in on the Mavericks, it’s fair to say that they’ve also experienced a recent upswing in performance. Couple the team winning 4 of their last 5 games with Kyrie returning from injury, and it’s fair to say things are going well in Dallas.

Their advanced statistics are solid but don’t jump off the page, with the team placing 12th in the NBA in Net Rating at +2.2. Their offense comes in at 10th in the league, while their defense is ranked as the 17th best per 100 possessions. The team plays at the 8th highest pace in the NBA, totalling 101.18 possessions per game. However, none of those stats can begin to prepare you for having to guard Luka and Kyrie, so let’s break flesh out this matchup a bit more.

The Luka Experience

As mentioned above, there’s really nothing that can prepare you to watch what Luka Doncic does to professional basketball teams on a nightly basis. He is amongst the rare air of players who truly make basketball look easy. Every movement is a meticulously calculated measure to ensure his success, whether that be looking off PnR defenders to get to a skip pass or delaying lob passes before turning them into floaters, Luka is always a few steps ahead.

This season, Luka is averaging 33.7 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.2 rebounds per game, all while maintaining decent efficiency. His 49/38/78 splits would be admirable for most but are made more impressive when considering the scoring and playmaking volume he has to carry. It’s important to remember that all of this is being done while still only age 24, and it’s frightening to consider all of the growth he still has left. 

Luka’s biggest step forward this season has been his three-point % rising from what was a slightly shocking 34% to 38%. I say slightly shocking because he was a better shooter than that number indicated, but his three-point diet consisted of a lot of long stepbacks and shot-clock ending prayers. This year, Luka has streamlined those attempts and has been noticeably more in “attack-mode.”

This mindset has actually yielded less free throws and two-pointers attempted (ironically), but you’re far less likely to see those deep threes early in the shot clock. Similarly, Luka is less likely to concede and take that shot when the first action is blocked, and he’ll instead look to get into another action. These are developments that are common as talented players age, but given Luka’s level of immediate success, these refinements have exponential effects.

Luka Stoppers?

Being asked to guard Luka is as legit of a test as there is for defensive players in the league, and given that one of the main reasons for this Grizzlies turnaround has been their outstanding defense, this represents a major test for several key players.

Ideally, one of Vince Williams Jr and Marcus Smart will be on Luka throughout the game, but I’ll start by talking about VWJ. In arguably his best performance of the season against the Phoenix Suns, Vince put up 19 points, 9 boards, and had a +23 +/-.

While several Grizzlies fans retained their Vince Williams Jr. stock, it’s hard for me to believe that the believers had this sort of performance in mind. Vince’s infectious hustle and willingness to work were on display, as he made winning plays time and time again.

I started out with VWJ because I believe he has the potential to be one of the league’s premier wing defenders, and there’s hardly a better measuring stick in the league than Luka Doncic. If Vince is who we think he is, this could be a massive moment for him.

However, if Vince fails to rise to the occasion, the Grizzlies (thankfully) employ Marcus Smart. This matchup alone makes the game worth tuning in for. You have two masters of their craft, both of which are as equally talented as they are devious.

The exaggerated theatrics (the one above is my favorite)  we are about to witness from these two will undoubtedly be broadway quality, and I, for one, cannot wait to watch.

The JJJ Revenge Tour

While my ball knowledge has never been as air-tight as I wanted to believe, I am proud for being one of the members of the fanbase that attacked every weakness in JJJ’s game when things were dark.

I want to preface that I do still get frustrated at his fouling tendencies, the whistle he gets, his frequent lack of aggression on offense, rebounding woes, etc, but I was never clamoring for him to be traded. 

Well, if you were questioning his future in Memphis or asking for him to be traded, you look really foolish now. The 24 year-old DPOY has been on a tear as of late, and it’s been his offensive production that has been so impressive.

While those stats look nice, the eye-test has been even more encouraging, as JJJ has taken more and more of an offensive burden. The initiative he has shown on offense has been admirable, but it’s not just his mindset that’s changed on this end but his game too.

More so than ever, JJJ looks like a physical force on the court. I remember when he looked like Bambi on ice when he faced the slightest bit of contact, but now he’s the one dishing out physical punishment.

What’s even more encouraging for Grizz fans is that big men typically take longer to develop their game, so there’s potentially even more meat on the bone for JJJ to capitalize off of. As he continues to grow, expect for more and more stars like KD to take notice of what WE already know.