Game Preview: Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. March Madness is here. For the 2nd time in two years, the Memphis Tigers are an 8-seed in the big dance. One could argue the Tigers are under-seeded. But early season losses to Seton Hall and Saint Louis and two losses to Tulane hurt Memphis’s chances at a higher spot. Regardless, there’s no question Coach Hardaway has the AAC Champions peaking at the right time.

First off the Tigers face the No. 9 seed and winners of Conference USA, the Florida Atlantic Owls. Like Memphis, many believe FAU should’ve had a better seed. No team in college basketball has more wins than the Owls. Yet, their strength of schedule – ranked 135th according to KenPom – heavily affected how the NCAA committee seeded FAU. Don’t let that fool you though. This is a talented team that could give Memphis trouble.

Matchup: No. 8 Memphis Tigers (26-8, 13-5 in AAC, AAC Champions) vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls (31-3, 18-2 in C-USA, C-USA Champions)

Date/Time: Friday, March 17, 2023 / 8:20 PM CST

Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio

TV/Stream/Radio: TNT / 98.9 THE ROAR OF MEMPHIS

Keys to the Game

Shut off the Water.

Humans need water to survive. Florida Atlantic needs the 3-pointer. The Owls rank 30th in three-point percentage (37.2) and 12th in three-pointers made per game (9.7). They run a four-out, one-in offense with four perimeter players who can shoot the triple, put the ball on the floor, and work a pick-and-roll. Sound familiar? It should because Memphis faced a team twice that ran the exact same offense: the Cincinnati Bearcats.

In their first meeting, Memphis funneled everything on defense to Cincinnati’s big man Viktor Lahkin and held the Bearcats to 6-24 from three en route to a seven-point road win. That changed in the 2nd matchup where Memphis keyed in on Lahkin and allowed Cincinnati to shoot 10-27. Memphis only won that game by three. Expect a similar defensive scheme to the first game versus Cincinnati, especially knowing FAU is much better from deep. Memphis must hold the Owls below their season average for made threes. No water, no life.

2. Balanced Diet.

Kendric Davis and DeAndre Williams were immaculate in the AAC Tournament. Kendric averaged 22 points, 5.3 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, and 0.7 steals on 47.8 from the field and 55.3% from three. Those are crazy numbers. But here are DeAndre’s: 26 points, 2.7 assists, 12.3 rebounds, 0.7 blocks, and 1.3 steals on 58% from the field and 72.2% (!!!) from three.

Goodness gracious. While we should expect KD and Dre to continue being Memphis’s best players, it’s a little unfair to expect that same output for the entire NCAA Tournament. If the Tigers are to make a deep run, it will take a full team effort. One or both of Damaria Franklin and Elijah McCadden must make an impact against FAU considering the Owls’ lack of size on the perimeter. Both players are very good at finishing through contact. Damaria especially has good rise to his jump shot, which should allow him to shoot over FAU’s guards. Look out for Johnathan Lawson as well. His size (6’6), shooting, and basketball IQ could be the difference.

Prediction

Memphis 78, FAU 72

Many expect this game to be extremely competitive. Both teams have impressed throughout the regular season and have hopes of busting brackets. No disrespect to the C-USA or FAU’s opponents. But the Owls haven’t faced a team as talented as Memphis. Along with the keys mentioned above, DeAndre Williams must stay out of foul trouble. If that happens, the Tigers should move on.