Game Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies (1/2/24)

Who: San Antonio Spurs (5-27, 15th in West) at Memphis Grizzlies (10-22, 13th in West)

When: Tuesday, January 2nd, 7:00 P.M. CST

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee

How To Watch: Bally Sports

Injury Report: 

Memphis: Steven Adams (Out, Knee), Brandon Clarke (Out, Achilles), Jacob Gilyard (Out, Two-Way Transfer), GG Jackson II (Out, Two-Way Transfer), Jake LaRavia (Out, G-League Assignment)

San Antonio: Keldon Johnson (Probable, Back), Zach Collins (Out, Ankle), Charles Bassey (Out, ACL)

For a struggling Grizzlies team that has lost their last three games, tonight’s matchup against the last-place San Antonio Spurs is much needed. 

The Grizzlies were hammered on their home floor against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday night, losing 123-91. This came after an 11-point loss to the Clippers and a 37-point loss against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. After reeling off four straight wins, it looked as if the Grizzlies had gotten their swagger back, but despite being the healthiest they have been all year, they continue to dig a deep hole for themselves. 

Memphis has its next two games at home, but starting this weekend, the Grizzlies head west to face the Lakers, Suns, and Mavericks in just a five-day span. This makes Memphis’ next two games must-win if it wants to compete for a Play-in Tournament spot; their upcoming west coast road trip could kill the Grizzlies’ playoff hopes. 

The Grizzlies can’t look ahead, though. They have a 7’4” alien in front of them, and while the Spurs have the league’s second-worst record, Memphis cannot afford to underestimate its opponent. The last time these two teams met was back on November 18th, when the Grizzlies emerged victorious 120-108 despite trailing by 17 at the half.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane put on a show, combining for 53 points, and Santi Aldama and Ziare Williams’ bench efforts helped lift the Grizzlies past San Antonio. This time around, Memphis will also have the league’s best three-point shooter from a year ago, a former Defensive Player of the Year, and Ja Morant. 

After Memphis’ last three losses, the team needs an encouraging win, and this spot – against the Spurs in Memphis – offers the perfect opportunity for the Grizz to turn things around. Here are the keys to the game:

Win the Second Quarter

The Grizzlies are dead last in average second-quarter point margin with a rating of -5.5. That is 2.4 points worse than the 29th-ranked team, the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs won the second quarter by eight points in the last matchup between these two teams, but in their last three, San Antonio is -9.7 in the second quarter. 

Against the Kings on Sunday, Memphis lost the second quarter by seven points, and Sacramento was able to blow open the game. Memphis’ loss in Denver last week was largely due to its second-quarter struggles. The Grizzlies were only down six points heading into the second period but quickly found themselves in a 15-point hole. The lead grew to 20 midway through the quarter, and Memphis could not recover.

Friday night against the Clippers, Memphis won the second quarter 29-26. This offensive performance is what has been missing for much of the season during these pivotal quarters. Memphis has only scored over 30 points in the second quarter five times this season. Further, the Grizzlies have averaged 24.8 points in the second quarter, which is down from 29.3 last year. So far in the 2023-24 campaign, the Spurs have averaged 28.2 points in the second quarter; however, their defense has crushed their point differential.

It seems as if the Grizzlies have struggled to finish quarters. Whether it is defensive lapses, missed shots, or costly turnovers, Memphis loses games in the final few minutes of each quarter. Besides the game’s final minutes, the second quarter’s final minutes are arguably the most critical, especially for building momentum and confidence as the game nears the second half. If Memphis can win the second quarter, the Grizzlies should be able to snap their three-game skid. 

Lean on Playmakers

The Spurs are 25th in Defensive Rating despite having one of the league’s top shot blockers: Victor Wembanyama. With Morant and Aldama back to full health and Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart back in the lineup, the Grizzlies will have their first real look at the full potential of their offense. Sunday night was a test drive, and they could not keep up with the lightning-fast Sacramento Kings. Memphis’ next two games against the Spurs and the middling Toronto Raptors offer the Grizzlies a chance to find what works and start clicking on offense. 

However, until the team moves as one, it is necessary to lean on Morant, Bane, and Jackson. If the Grizzlies want to compete for a Play-in spot, they must go on an extensive winning streak. Fully healthy, the NBA knows this team can make some noise, and while Memphis is still missing Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies are as complete as they will be all season. There is no time to mess around and no time to waste. The clock is ticking for the Grizzlies, and if they are to rise up the standings, it will be on the backs of their big three.

BANGO‼️ @DBane0625 pic.twitter.com/YKaTNnYr40

— Bally Sports: Grizzlies (@GrizzOnBally) January 1, 2024

The Spurs may be missing Zach Collins, but they still have plenty of height, which could hinder Jackson’s inside presence. Morant will also face challenges against Wembanyama, but there is no doubt that 12 has been relishing the opportunity to put the NBA’s newest star on a poster. Bane has been shooting 40% from deep in his last five outings on nine attempts per game. If Jackson produces from beyond the arc, Morant gets downhill, and Bane continues to be one of the league’s best three-level scorers, then Memphis should roll past their division rival. 

Prediction: Memphis 118, San Antonio 110