How Difficult will it be for Memphis to Win Out?

In the waning moments of the Tigers’ postgame media availability Friday night, Seth Henigan was asked whether the team felt like they needed to win out to have a chance at an American Athletic Conference championship appearance. His response was quite direct — “Yes”.

Everyone in and around the Memphis Football program knows that the Tigers missed a golden opportunity last week. In front of a crowd of over 35,000, it initially appeared as if Tiger fans were going to get a sequel to the Boise State comeback they’d witnessed just 12 days before. After opening the second half with a touchdown to go up over Tulane by 10 points, however, it was all Green Wave inside Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. So today Willie Fritz and company find themselves back inside the Top 25 and the Tigers will need to rally together for a shot at a potential rematch in December. Let’s take a look at the remaining six games on the Tigers’ schedule to rank each matchup based on difficulty.

Easiest — at Charlotte (November 11th)

Charlotte Head Coach Biff Poggi had the quote of the week at AAC Media Days this summer when he quite humorously told the media his team had “gotten the message” when he was only asked three questions by reporters in attendance. After a season-opening victory against FCS opponent South Carolina State, the 49ers have lost five straight games by an average of 16 points. Charlotte has been seemingly unable to settle on a starting quarterback and their leading passer has currently thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. Statistically, the 49ers are ranked 123rd out of 130 FBS teams and have struggled to get anything going on offense this season. While better than the offense, Poggi’s defense still leaves a lot to be desired. The 49ers rank 93rd in the country in rushing defense and 59th in passing defense. They will have an opportunity to get a win or two between now and when they host the Tigers. They play ECU (who has equally struggled) this week and a pair of 3-3 teams in FAU and Tulsa. While the Tigers have traditionally struggled in true road games under Ryan Silverfield, a loss in Charlotte would equal nothing short of a disaster.

Slightly Harder — at North Texas (October 28th)

The Mean Green gave Memphis a scare during last season’s non-conference matchup and North Texas was even projected in the upper half of the league in the preseason. Nevertheless, it appears Eric Morris’s unit is still very much adjusting in the team’s first year as a member of the American Athletic Conference. With a 31-point victory over Temple last week, perhaps they’ve gotten some confidence back after getting demolished in the first two weeks of the season and losing to Navy on the road. The Mean Green rank 127th out of 130 teams in total defense and have allowed an average of 35.5 points through their first six games. Louisiana-Monroe QB transfer Chandler Rogers has been the bright spot for the Mean Green with 1,419 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and only one interception on the year. It’s obvious North Texas can put up points as well — they lead the conference in total offense. Still, the team’s inability to stop anyone defensively should present a favorable matchup for the Tigers in two weeks.

Bad Team with Favorable History — at Temple (November 24th)

Weird things happen to the Tigers in Philadelphia, and that’s the only reason the Owls come in as the third most difficult game remaining on the Memphis schedule. Put history aside, though, and Temple is just plain bad. The Owls have lost four straight games by an average of 25 points. Rushing defense is a major area of weakness for the Owls, they’re giving up an average of 206 rushing yards a game and have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns on the year. Despite another serviceable season from EJ Warner and an offensive line that has kept him relatively clean throughout the year, it doesn’t appear the Owls have many weapons surrounding him on offense. While the Tigers should be heavily favored in this matchup, Memphis will still need to take care of business. The last time Memphis traveled to Lincoln Financial Field they were defeated by a Temple team that finished the year 1-7 in the conference.

Play Well or Get Beat — at UAB (October 21st)

The Blazers have had an up-and-down season in Trent Difler’s first year at the helm. While 2-5 overall, UAB led Tulane at halftime and played a respectable game against Georgia in Athens. The Blazers rank 2nd in the AAC in total offense and passing offense. Like many teams on the Tigers’ remaining schedule, Difler’s defense has struggled through seven games. The Blazers are 113th in the nation in total defense and they’re penalized more than almost any team in the American Athletic Conference. Memphis will need to bring their a-game, though, as there is little question the Blazers will be ready to play on Saturday. The Battle of the Bones trophy has belonged to the Tigers for over 10 years and UAB would love nothing more than to take it back in their first season as members of the AAC. After losing to Tulane at home for the first time since 1998, it wouldn’t be ideal for Memphis to break favorable streaks to regional rivals in back-to-back weeks.

Most Difficult — SMU (November 18th)

If the Tigers take care of business, this game may feel just as big as the matchup with Tulane did. The Mustangs’ conference schedule is ridiculously easy this year and Memphis winning every game between now and senior day against SMU may equal a trip to New Orleans for the AAC Championship on the line. SMU has lost both of their P5 matchups this season but they’ve practically dominated every other team on their schedule. While many thought Rhett Lashlee’s team would shine offensively, it’s been their defense that has smothered their opponents. The Mustangs have a top 20 defense in the country and are among the best in the nation at defending the pass. The chances of their record being strong when they come to Memphis are high, as the combined record of their next four opponents is 11-14. As of today, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Mustangs a 66 percent chance to defeat the Tigers on November 18th.

Seth Henigan was likely correct when stating the Tigers will need to win out to get to their first conference championship appearance since 2019. Chandler Martin followed up his quarterback’s response by closing the press conference saying, “(winning out) is the plan.. we’ll see y’all in December.” Let’s hope he’s right.