How Successful Will Memphis Be in the First 25 Games?

The Memphis Grizzlies will face a tall task to begin the ’23-’24 NBA season. And yet, despite the task’s height, the team is nonetheless prepared and familiar with it. Whether that’s fair or not is neither here nor there. I’d rather my squad be ready and worry about the semantics of their situation later.

As it stands, Memphis will be playing the first 25 games of the season without Ja Morant. The league suspended the Memphis superstar earlier this summer. He will miss—and it’s not expected to increase—the first 25 games of the season.

Now, as I said before, this Grizzlies team is no stranger to games without their star point guard. During the ’21-’22 season, the team was without Morant for 25 games. Their record during that span? 20-5.

Now, they did fall back to Earth a bit last year—11-10 without Ja—but still. A record of 31-15 over the past two seasons without their guy? That’s pretty damn good.

Compare that record to some of the other teams in the Western Conference. The Phoenix Suns’ record without Devin Booker the past two years, for example? 19-24. The Oklahoma City Thunder without SGA? 15-25. This Memphis squad has been here before, and they’ve risen to the occasion.

The Steven Adams news is a bit more disconcerting. Missing him for an entire season is the opposite length of how long you want to miss the big Kiwi. As in you never want him to miss any stretch of time at all.

After a record of 5-1 without him during the ’21-’22 season, last year it… Well it hovered only a few games over .500. Without their starting center the Grizzlies record was a less solid 23-17.

Throw in the fact the West got better this offseason… I’d understand it should you worry. But remember, these Grizzlies are still quite good. They are also very well-coached. Believe me this squad will still be a threat in a crowded Western Conference.

I know, I’m a homer—the biggest out there on some days—but I’m not panicking about this group yet. I’d say it has to due with the extreme levels of optimism that flee from my poeres… But I can’t be for certain. With that in mind, here’s my prediction for the Memphis Grizzlies’ first 25 games…

Games #1-5 (3-2 record through 5 games)

10/25/23 – New Orleans Pelicans (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)
10/27/23 – Denver Nuggets (W) at Memphis Grizzlies (L)
10/28/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at Washington Wizards (L)
10/30/23 – Dallas Mavericks (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)
11/01/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (L) at Utah Jazz (W)

I’ve got the Grizzlies netting three victories and two losses in the first five games of the season. Am I being cautious here? No question. If I let my inner homer take the keys, I may have had them going 4-1 here.

The only obvious loss to me would be against the reigning champion Nuggets. That will be a tough battle. This Memphis team is better than the other four squads, but I feel one will get away from them. As much as Tyus Jones may want a revenge game, this Wizards team could be the league’s worst. And the Mavericks? There’s no way they are clicking this early. If another loss would come from either New Orleans or Utah? I’m going with who has the best coach—Will Hardy—handing them the L.

Games #6-10 (5-5 record through 10 games)

11/03/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at Portland Trailblazers (L) in-season tournament
11/05/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (L) at Portland Trailblazers (W)
11/08/23 – Miami Heat (W) at Memphis Grizzlies (L)
11/10/23 – Utah Jazz (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W) in-season tournament
11/12/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (L) at Los Angeles Clippers (W)

The next stretch of games will feature the debut of the Mid-Season Tournament. How dialed in will teams be for it? We will have to wait and see. But I’m of the mindset the Grizzlies will show up ready to compete in these games. So I have them winning both of those bouts. One against Utah, the other against Portland.

They’ll actually have Portland two times in these five games. The probability of them dropping at least one of those is higher than not. So I’ve got them splitting those. We’ll see how Miami fares to start the season, but they’ll look very different. I’m hoping the Grizzlies handle them, but we’ll see. Miami will have the better true center with Adams out. He’s been grinding an axe it seems for JJJ so South Beach get the dub here. We’ll have to see on the Clippers, too…again. They remain one of the season’s biggest mysteries. Will Paul George still be healthy? Will Kawhi Leonard? If they both play then this one may be tough without Morant. Memphis takes another in the loss column.

Games #11-15 (8-7 record through 15 games)

11/14/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (L) at Los Angeles Lakers (W)
11/18/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at San Antonio Spurs (L)
11/19/23 – Boston Celtics (W) at Memphis Grizzlies (L)
11/22/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at Houston Rockets (L)
11/24/23 – Phoenix Suns (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)

Thus begins the stretch of the early third-ish of the season that will test Memphis’ mettle. Three of their five opponents here made it to the second round of last year’s playoffs. They’ll begin against the team that knocked them out of said playoffs. Except this Lakers team is better, and the Grizzlies are down Ja. That’s a loss for me.

Next, I’ve got them besting Wemby and the Spurs—though I have no doubt it’ll be a fun one. The Grizzlies will then drop one of their following games against Marcus Smart’s old team. If this Celtics team can stay healthy, it’ll be a dogfight until the end. Then, I’ve got Memphis going on its first mini-run of the season. First, beating a lesser opponent—Houston—then an equal one—Phoenix. That’s 3-2 in each set of 5 games to start the season. They could do much worse.

Games #16-20 (11-9 record through 20 games)

11/26/23 – Minnesota Timberwolves (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)
11/29/23 – Utah Jazz (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)
12/01/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at Dallas Mavericks (L)
12/02/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (L) at Phoenix Suns (W)
12/11/23 – Dallas Mavericks (W) at Memphis Grizzlies (L)

The Grizzlies will extend their win streak to five in this stretch. With wins against the Timberwolves, the Jazz, and the Mavericks… That brings their total wins on the season to 12.

I imagine at this point the Suns—and Mavericks too—will have had enough, putting a stop to the Grizzlies’ winning ways. Both teams, after all, will be looking to avenge each of their earlier season losses at Memphis’ hand. Should the Grizzlies drop both, they would skate by with another three wins. As well as another two losses, leaving five games left before Morant returns.

Games #21-25 (15-10 record through 25 games)

12/13/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (L) at Houston Rockets (W)
12/15/23 – Houston Rockets (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)
12/18/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at Oklahoma City Thunder (L)
12/19/23 – Memphis Grizzlies (W) at New Orleans Pelicans (L)
12/21/23 – Indiana Pacers (L) at Memphis Grizzlies (W)

For these final five games before the return of 12, I have Memphis playing some of their best basketball to date. Am I throwing Dillon Brooks a bone here with this Rockets dub? 100%, but at least I’m honest.

Besides, the Villain’s victory will be short-lived, as the Grizzlies will go on to win next their next four games. That’s two tilts in Houston, and I’ve got them splitting. I see this team’s cohesiveness as rock solid, being this close to the holidays. As they move on from the Rockets, and face the trio of the Thunder, Pelicans, and Pacers, I see them bulldozing their way through the road trip. That would mean Memphis is sitting with 15 wins and 10 losses.

If they get a locked-in Morant when he returns? And are some how able to trade for quality big man depth? With that record? It’ll be a top three seed in the West for this team. Wait and see.