On the Grizzlies and Quentin Grimes

The NBA trade deadline is now under three weeks away, and it has become one of the most exciting dates on the league calendar. No matter if you are a current contender or a team likely picking in the lottery of the next NBA draft, every team has sensible moves to make. And for the Memphis Grizzlies, despite a nightmare of a season so far, the trade deadline still offers plenty of intrigue.

Unfortunately, despite the fact Memphis remains highly competitive in games, it is hard to see any move(s) that will significantly impact the outlook of this current season. The Grizzlies simply have too much talent unavailable for too long. As a result, the Grizzlies best focus for the trade deadline likely should be centered on the future. That could include looking to move expiring player contracts for future assets (Xavier Tillman), moving tradable future contracts to teams closer to contention (John Konchar, Luke Kennard), or moving young players who could use a change of scenery (any of the 2021 or 2022 first round wings.)

These type of potential moves would likely be categorized as minor and make the Grizzlies “sellers”. However, the Grizzlies also could be looking to acquire talents they feel could help them in the present and future. Matt Moore of the Action Network hinted at such in his latest trade deadline news and notes:

While the Grizzlies being viewed as “buyers” may be a bit surprising, context is important. In theory, it may seem logical that the Grizzlies should look to try and get as good a draft pick as possible for the 2024 draft. However, with where Memphis is currently record wise, it seems unlikely they will improve their current draft position that much. As a result, the Grizzlies seem to be think remaining as competitive as possible is the best way to help their current young talent to develop.

With that mentality in place, it becomes a bit more sensible as to why the Grizzlies could be “buyers”. This does not mean that Memphis is looking to acquire players that will help them try to win at all costs specifically this season; it instead means that, in the right deal, Memphis could certainly be open to adding talent that could help this season and beyond. Furthermore, if the Grizzlies are looking to add talent, it would seem as if the front court, such as a big wing or center, would be the main area of focus. However, currently, the most valid rumor of a potential Memphis trade target to date centers on New York Knicks guard Quentin Grimes, per Ian Begley:

For weeks, Grimes has appeared to be one of the more sensible and likely “change of scenery” targets for teams in the NBA. He lost his starting job earlier this season, and his playing time has been inconsistent at best over the past few months. And though his production has declined this year compared to last likely as a result of the fluctuation in his role, it seems many around the league feel he can offer good value in a new setting. Furthermore, with New York being one of the teams in the league most focused on adding another significant piece to their roster (after already trading for OG Anunoby a few weeks ago), Grimes naturally is a player who could be a part of a trade package to bring that type of player to the Knicks.

As a result, plenty of teams are interested in Grimes. Even beyond the Grizzlies and other teams specifically mentioned above, several NBA teams could be intrigued by adding a young and natural talent like Grimes to their roster. For the Grizzlies specifically, their interest may seem a bit odd when they already have Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, John Konchar, Luke Kennard, and other perimeter talents under contract beyond this season. And as mentioned above, Memphis clearly has other areas of the roster that that would be more logical to address.

So why would the Grizzlies have interest in Grimes?

The answer lies in both how the upside of Grimes could help the Grizzlies in needed areas but also how his acquisition could make other moves sensible.

On the surface, the potential upside of Grimes may be hard to find this season. He is currently shooting 39.1% from the field, 37.9% from three, and 71.4% from the line. He is the 56th percentile among his peers in eFG%, mainly due to the fact that he has seen significant regression in his accuracy inside the arc. He is making just 43.4% of his overall two-point shots and 52.9% of his shots at the rim this season, compared to 64.1% and 74.5%, respectively, last year. He also has not offered much value outside of scoring, despite flashes of defensive playmaking in the past. In general, for a player who has mainly added value through his shooting in the past, that value has not been as high this season.

But that is where the intrigue lies for many teams in seeing what Grimes could do with a change of scenery. Yes, outside of shooting and scoring, Grimes may not offer much value. But Grimes did shoot better than 40% on catch and shoot threes and over 45% on corner threes in each of his first two seasons. Even as just a shooting specialist, that accuracy itself offers plenty of value. Over 71% of Grimes career field goal attempts in the NBA have been from three, so he is clearly comfortable as a shooting specialist. If Grimes could return to this level of accuracy from three along with regaining his ability to shoot well over 60% at the rim as he has shown in the past, he would clearly add offensive value, even as a low usage reserve. Furthermore, he has shown good defensive flashes in the past, so becoming a “3 and D” type player remains a reasonable outlook from Grimes at only 23 years old.

As Bluff City Media’s own Myke Horrell, Parker Fleming of Subtsakalidis, and others have mentioned, Memphis could be a great place for Grimes to get back to his previous success. Taylor Jenkins and his staff have a track record of helping young guards improve their shooting once they came to the Grizzlies, and the skill set of Grimes would be a priority to make the most of in the present and future. Furthermore, Grimes has past ties to Memphis:

In the role Grimes would have as a reserve guard/wing in the Grizzlies offensive system, his past accuracy from beyond the arc is highly intriguing for the shots Grimes would likely take as a perimeter shooting outlet. Currently, the players occupying this type of role for the Grizzlies are Luke Kennard, and to a lesser extent, John Konchar. It should be noted that Grimes neither has near the history has an elite shooter that Kennard has nor does he add value across the board like Konchar can. But the reason the Grizzlies could be attracted to Grimes despite already having Kennard and Konchar comes down to the aforementioned potential of Grimes and his future price.

Moving forward, the Grizzlies best players are going to continue to be more expensive. Next season will be the first year that Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. will cost around $100M just as a trio. As a result, the Grizzlies must be cost conscious across the rest of their roster. This means they will consistently be looking at ways to get production at the cheapest cost. In the case of Grimes, gaining his shooting potential at $2.3M this year and $4.3M next year is quite attractive.

Memphis is already rumored to be looking to move on from Konchar, who could be attractive as a future tradable contract (more than $6M for each of next three seasons) for teams closer to contention than Memphis. Furthermore, acquiring Grimes could naturally make Kennard expendable either at the deadline or in the offseason. If his club option were to be exercised over the summer, Kennard becomes an expiring contract for nearly $15M next season, a valuable money matching component for trades. While Kennard certainly remains highly valuable to Memphis and could stay next year, the acquisition of Grimes gives the Grizzlies roster flexibility to be creative with moving forward.

Of course, while the acquisition of Grimes could make sense for Memphis in multiple ways in theory, making it happen in reality is likely less certain. As Ian Begley’s report mentions above, many teams across the league have interest in Grimes. Other teams likely have better ways to acquire Grimes from the Knicks directly from the Grizzlies because those other teams have trade targets the Knicks desire.

The best way Memphis would be able to acquire Grimes is likely through a three-team deal, in which assets from the Grizzlies would go to another team besides the Knicks. This could especially work if the Knicks were to target Malcolm Brogdon of the Blazers or Bruce Brown of the Raptors. However, Memphis would likely want to send out Konchar and a young wing in such a deal, which means Memphis may have to trade draft assets as well. In the end, that could make the acquisition of Grimes either too complicated or pricy to pursue.

Overall, the Grizzlies pursuit of Quentin Grimes certainly makes sense on multiple fronts. His shooting potential is highly intriguing and would help fill a long term need for the Grizzlies, and the franchise likely puts a high priority on players they know have positive connections to Memphis. If the Grizzlies could acquire Grimes in place of one of their current young wings, they would likely get more productivity moving forward as well. Plus, the cost control of Grimes could open up Konchar and Kennard as tradable assets.

But the Grizzlies also have to make sure the price is right for Grimes. And the reality of that happening may not be too high, as the fact that many other teams with more sensible ways to directly acquire Grimes could make his acquisition less likely for Memphis. As a result, targeting Grimes is sensible for Memphis due to other opportunities it could create, but should not be a reality the Grizzlies overpay to make happen.