Projecting Zach Edey’s Rookie Production and Rookie of the Year Chances

It has been two weeks since the 2024 NBA Draft, and as usual with the fast pace of the NBA offseason, the Grizzlies franchise and fanbase has already experienced seeing Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, and Cam Spencer in action. It happened during the Salt Lake City Summer League and the first game of the Vegas Summer League last night. And in the case of all three draft picks, I feel it is fair to suggest the early returns have been positive.

On the NBA level as a whole, another fun development over the past few weeks has been the movement in odds as to which 2024 draft pick has the best chance to win the 2024-2025 Rookie of the Year. In many places, Edey has emerged as the favorite among his peers. In terms of the actual movement in recent days, it is not due to Edey becoming an overwhelming favorite compared to the rest of the class, as his odds are just slightly ahead of Alex Sarr and others. What has stood out about Edey’s movement on the boards is how much his odds have increased compared to right after the draft.

While I will never claim to be a betting expert, I feel there are several factors that logically support the emergence of Edey as the current Rookie of the Year favorite for the upcoming NBA season. They include:

• Likely Starting Opportunity
• Level of Talent Edey will frequently be playing with
• Certainty of Counting Stats Production, mainly points, boards, and blocks
• Contribution to major improvement in team wins compared to last year
• Significant role on a clear playoff contender
• Good to elite metrics in regards winning impact

In simpler terms, a single perspective can offer a general summery of the aforementioned factors as to why Edey should be confidently viewed as a Rookie of the Year favorite

Edey is an older, historically productive collegiate offensive player in a draft class that does not offer a lot of immediate offensive certainty.

In comparison to Edey, some of the more polished offensive rookies, such as Dalton Knecht, only have one year of elite college production. Some of the prospects with the highest offensive ceilings, such as Reed Sheppard or Zachharie Risacher, may not have as clear of a path at significant immediate production as Edey. Furthermore, several of the prospects thought to have the highest overall ceilings in the 2024 class, such as Sarr and Ron Holland, have a long way to go developing their offensive games and could even offer more defensive than offensive impact at the start of their NBA careers.

In recent history, the Rookie of the Year award highly correlates with counting statistics, especially scoring. For instance, over the past 15 seasons, 11 of the 15 Rookie of the Year winners led their respective rookie class in points per game. Furthermore, 14 of the past 15 rookie classes have had at least one rookie average 15 or more points per game (min. 50 games played). The one season this did not occur was the 2016-2017 season.

That season was Joel Embiid’s rookie year, and while he did average 20.2 points per game, he only played 31 total contests. As a result, no other rookies truly stood out in terms of immediate scoring impact. Malcolm Brogdon of the Milwaukee Bucks eventually won the Rookie of the Year award that season. While he averaged 10.2 points per game (still officially third highest in his class), Brogdon was an older prospect who filled a needed role for the Bucks with immediate production as their sixth man. He also led his rookie class in assists per game and helped Milwaukee secure a winning season for only the second time in 15 years.

Next year, Edey could follow a similar path to win Rookie of the Year. Like in Brogdon’s rookie season, this could be a season where no individual rookie clearly emerges as a significant source of scoring compared to his peers. As a result, like Brogdon, the fact that Edey is an older prospect who can offer immediate production may carry more significance. Also, such as Brogdon with points and assists compared to his fellow rookies, Edey could be among the highest per game scorers and also lead this rookie class in rebounding per game. Finally, just like Brogdon filled a role for the Bucks and helped them improve their level of winning, Edey could do the same for Memphis. With the Grizzlies only winning 27 games last year and having a clear need for a center this offseason, Edey emerging as the starting five and Memphis perhaps winning twenty or more games next year could be a huge boost to his ROY resume.

While we can possibly plot multiple paths for Edey to take to currently be the Rookie of the Year favorite, this does not mean there will not be competition. As mentioned above, the more counting statistics a rookie produces, the better his resume likely looks. Some other rookies could likely play more due to their teams wanting to prioritize their development instead of winning. In that case, a few other rookies could have a higher quantity of results than Edey in certain categories. This is where the quality of Edey’s play could also be a factor in his Rookie of the Year candidacy.

The above image is the list of players since 2008 that produced a 7 or better BPM with a 25% or higher usage rate and a 65% or better true shooting percentage in a single collegiate season. The query results show that this level of scoring efficiency at a high usage rate has a good correlation with collegiate bigs becoming at least rotation-level NBA players. The thing that stands out about Edey is that he is the only person to reach this threshold multiple times. Furthermore, this past season saw him reach the threshold while taking many more shots than any of the other players AND supporting his scoring with excellent production at the free throw line.

As a result, Edey produced .73 points per minute over his last two collegiate seasons. If he is able to maintain 75% of that per minute production in the NBA, and averages between 20 and 25 minutes per game, Edey will likely average between 12 and 14 points per game his rookie season. While this approach is likely flawed, it is meant as a simple thought exercise to achieve a projection. If Edey were to score at that level playing 20-25 minutes a game, his historical efficiency in college has likely translated to make him an efficient scorer in the NBA.

Edey’s scoring efficiency and production at the line could be important factors on his ROY resume. While other rookies may achieve a higher amount of overall points, if Edey can average double digit points with a high true shooting percentage, the quality of his scoring could stand out above the quantity of others. Only five rookies in league history have averaged double digit points per game while also producing a 60% or better true shooting percentage (min. 50 games played). While that could be a tall task for Edey to accomplish, it may not be far-fetched. To Edey’s benefit, learning from Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. will help, as they were two of the most efficient scoring rookie bigs in league history (image above.)

While Edey’s efficient scoring could help stand out among his first year peers, his rebounding production could emerge as the true factor that helps him stand above the rest of his rookie class. He truly is one of the most productive collegiate rebounders over the past 15 seasons. And for a Grizzlies roster in clear need of an elite rebounding source, productive work on the glass will be one of his primary focuses.

It seems many feel that Edey’s elite rebounding could translate pretty quickly to the NBA. His work on the boards against Walker Kessler and Kyle Filipowski in the first Salt Lake Summer league game offered a good initial look at how good he could be as a rebounder. Over his last two years in college, Edey averaged just under .4 boards per minute. If here able to produce 80% of that per minute production and play 20 to 25 minutes a game, he would average 8 to 10 rebounds per contest.

Putting together the aforementioned projections, I threw out the following stat line for Edey’s Rookie year on a per game basis:

25 minutes, 13 points, 8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 58% TS percentage

Nearly 400 votes on X/Twitter suggested this was a pretty accurate projection for Edey. The crazy thing is that, even if you lower the ppg to 10 per game, only four players have achieved this stat threshold while playing at least 50 games as a rookie. They are Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, David Robinson, and Karl Anthony-Towns. If Edey proves to be an effective scorer and rebounder, he could join some pretty elite company.

Many also responded that they felt Edey could instantly average double-digit rebounds per game, and perhaps even a double-double per game during his rookie season. This is not that uncommon of an occurrence, as 46 rookies have averaged a double-double in their first NBA season.

However, the biggest factor in how much Edey will produce is how many minutes he will play. For instance, of the 46 rookies who averaged a double-double, only three did it averaging less than 30 minutes per game, including Wemby last season. In terms of NBA players overall (not just rookies), only five have ever averaged a double-double while playing 25 or less minutes per game. Realistically, Edey will likely play between 20 and 30 minutes each night, with a more defined minutes allotment coming together as he shows what he can handle. As a result, while Edey should produce some highly productive numbers, his minutes played could limit him on reaching the lofty expectations of some.

In the end, Edey’s overall production and impact on winning is far more important than historic counting numbers for a rookie. And with how the Grizzlies will likely use him, Edey should have plenty of opportunity to make his impact felt each and every game. As a result, with the lack of certainty elsewhere in this rookie class, the scoring prowess and rebounding ability of Edey could make him the most consistent rookie in terms of high production this season.

The end result could be the third Rookie of the Year in Grizzlies franchise history and a memorable rookie season for Edey and the Grizz.