Tigers’ Keys to Victory — 65th AutoZone Liberty Bowl

In just a few hours, the stands of Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium will fill with contrasting blue and red colors for what should be its largest crowd of the college football season. Two teams that have met in this setting before are clashing again for the first time since 2017. For Memphis, the Tigers have an opportunity to finish as just the 5th team in program history with 10 or more victories in a single season. With a win, Ryan Silverfield would join former head coaches Allyn McKeen, Justin Fuente, and Mike Norvell as the only Tiger coaches to lead their respective teams to a 10-win season. For Iowa State, the Cyclones, and their Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year QB Rocco Brecht, will seek to cap off a season of growth by defeating Memphis in their home stadium for a second straight time.

The Cyclones roll into the AutoZone Liberty Bowl coming off arguably their most impressive win of the season. Led by Freshman RB Abu Sama III, Iowa State racked up 488 total yards on their way to a 42-35 victory over 19th-ranked Kansas State in dreadful weather conditions. Factor that along with the consideration that Matt Campbell’s squad has lost little production to the transfer portal and the Cyclones currently sit as 10.5-point favorites in Las Vegas. How can Memphis pull off their first Power 5 victory since 2021? Let’s look at three keys to the game.

“Control the Controllables”

It’s probably not been talked about enough how well the Tigers did in avoiding self-inflicted wounds throughout the 2023 season. Through 12 games, Memphis ranks 12th nationally in fewest penalties per game (4.42) and 28th in turnover margin (+5). Further, the Tigers significantly improved at protecting Seth Henigan this season, allowing 18 fewer sacks than they did in 2022, which is good for 38th nationally (19 total). Iowa State will enter the AutoZone Liberty Bowl playing equally as disciplined on both sides of the ball. The Cyclones have only given up 12 sacks all season, which is good for 9th best in the nation. They’re also good at turning the ball over, ranking 19th nationally in turnover margin (8+). With two All-Conference defensive backs patrolling the secondary, the Cyclones have 16 interceptions on the year. They further rank 28th nationally in fewest penalties per game (5.00).

Both teams that rarely beat themselves, so it’ll be imperative for the Tigers to remain disciplined when the margin for error could be razor-thin. With the transfer portal and opt-outs being a reality in this era of college football, keep a close eye on how the missing (and new) faces on both teams influence chemistry on the field. For Iowa State, potential first-rounder T.J. Tampa is the only significant loss coming into the game. Memphis will be down two starting offensive linemen and a starting safety with Makylan Pounders, Davion Carter, and Cameron Smith all entering the portal earlier this month. In each of the Tigers’ three losses this season, higher-than-average turnovers and penalties played a factor in the final score.

Who Wins the Run Game?

Between Blake Watson and Abu Sama III, the 65th AutoZone Liberty Bowl will certainly feature two electric running backs. Earlier in the week, Ryan Silverfield called Sama III the best young running back in the country. On Thursday, he further elaborated on the challenge the Tigers face in Iowa State’s rush attack, saying, “They’re going to try to line up and run the ball at us and take play action shots.” Following a strong start to the season, the Tigers’ run defense became a bit of a liability as the season progressed. Surrendering an average of 168.2 rushing yards per game, Memphis currently ranks 97th in the country in rushing defense. While Blake Watson ranks 33rd nationally in yards per carry (5.90) and 37th in rushing yards per game (87.1), Iowa State’s defense proves to be stout against the run, ranking 34th in the country. The Cyclones have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last five games, though, so there’s still a chance Watson and company can have a productive game on the ground.

Iowa State’s passing defense ranks around the middle of the pack nationally, coming in at 54th overall. Offensively, it’ll be advantageous for the Tigers to get the Cyclones behind the chains early, as they usually struggle in 3rd down situations (75th nationally). Iowa State doesn’t give up much by way of scoring; they rank 33rd in the nation with an average of 21.6 points allowed per game. Very simply, if the Tigers can rely on a consistent run game in their season finale, they’ll have a good chance to win the game. In their three losses, Memphis was held under 100 rushing yards on each occasion.

Sealing the Deal

In four seasons as the Tigers’ head coach, Ryan Silverfiled ranks third all-time in winning percentage, only behind Mike Norvell and Billy Murphy. Consider with me how his tenure at Memphis would be looked at if some of those close games ended with a mark in the win column instead of going the unfortunate way they did. UTSA and ECU in 2021, Houston and SMU in 2022, and Missouri in 2023 are a few that immediately come to mind. If the game against Iowa State comes down to the wire, who will walk away with in victory? If it happens to be the Tigers, perhaps that narrative finally changes going into the 2024 season. An AutoZone Liberty Bowl trophy would be the most prestigious bowl victory in program history and Ryan Silverfield, regardless of how you view him, would join an elite fraternity among head coaches at Memphis.

The Cyclones went 2-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points this season. Memphis went 4-2. From the FG block-turned-touchdown that sparked a comeback victory over Boise State to the walk-off overtime touchdown in Charlotte, the Tigers have answered the call in close games more times than not this season.

While non-CFP playoff games are often brushed aside by national pundits as holiday season time-killers, the stakes couldn’t get much bigger for the Tigers.