TPE Targets—Part 4, The Spectacular Quality of Royce O'Neale

As I conclude the final part of this series examining TPE targets for Memphis to consider, I must confess something: O’Neale was not the intended target.

I presented the exercise to a colleague and asked him for a list of possible players that intrigued him in regards to using the TPE from the Dillon Brooks deal to upgrade the current roster. I even went a step further with one more parameter…

I wanted to get a player from Brooklyn to Memphis. That much I knew. They have wings on wings on wings in that organization. So there was my appeal—pick something off the menu of the league’s ‘Wing Stop.’

That is, I asked him to give me his preference of target: the player he thought the Grizzlies should pursue a trade for… The guy that had the potential to help hoist this team over the proverbial hump.

It was a test—self-inflicted, because I’m a glutton for punishment—to see if I could write on a subject not of my choosing. I wanted to see if I was capable of ‘riffing,’ for lack of a better word, on someone random. To see if my willpower could outlast my passion for a topic.

Speaking of… Let’s say I wouldn’t make a good Green Lantern and leave it at that unless it was Guy Gardner. Do me a favor and google that name, clocking the images. Got it? I’m comping my own will to a B-list comic book character in a turtleneck with a bowl cut. What does that say about me?

Ask any of my friends, and they’ll tell you with haste: Luke and ‘strength of will’ aren’t synonymous. I deploy a more loosey-goosey philosophy. If we’re being honest, my colleague—a local professor of Grizzology—should’ve known.

Still, I’d like to take a moment to apologize to my colleague… my friend. He asked me to feature Dorian Finney-Smith and I said I would. I agreed… For, let’s say, a day or two.

Then I stopped and said to myself, “DFS? Never heard of her! But have you heard about this Royce O’Neale chap?”

And so—as we close out this TPE series—that’s what I’m doing here. Make sure each and every one of you has heard of Royce “Big Meal” O’Neale, along with examining how his incredible skills would fit with this roster.

The Projected Playoff Rotation

Ja Morant
Marcus Smart
Desmond Bane
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Steven Adams

Luke Kennard
Royce O’Neale
Brandon Clarke or Xavier Tillman Sr. (dependent on BC’s recovery)
Ziaire Williams or Santi Aldama (if necessary)

So why ‘Big Meal’?

The long and short of it? Royce O’Neale, by my estimate, is one of the purest examples of an impact NBA role-player. Now, what do I mean by “impact player”? The best definition I’ve found is from Liz Wiseman.

Impact players… A player that makes significant contributions not only as an individual, but one who also has an enormous positive effect on the entire team as a whole. On role players—we know who those guys are.

ROYCE O'NEALE FOR THREE 🔥

NETS LEAD 118-116 WITH 27 SECONDS LEFT

WATCH: https://t.co/WjxYAo0Ivs pic.twitter.com/YYJtj19AFW
— NBA (@NBA) January 23, 2023

Impact NBA role-players, though? Think your Bruce Browns. Your Alex Carusos. Your De’Anthony Meltons. And think your Royce O’Neales.

These are the type of hoopers that every championship team needs. The dudes fill out the fringes of the roster and do the dirty work on both ends of the court.

Which is an “M.O.” that “Big Meal” has implemented since entering the league in 2017. Aside from last year—new team—O’Neale ranked in the league’s 77th percentile. That’s in efficiency differential per Cleaning the Glass.

That’s pretty damn good, coming into the league like that as a rookie. Now, there are plenty of “pretty damn good” rookies out there. However,there are not many rookies entering the league this polished on defense, though. They are few and far between.

Day'Ron Sharpe with the rejection 😤

Royce O'Neale converts on the other end!

📺 ESPN | #NBAPlayoffs presented by Google Pixel pic.twitter.com/ZWbrOTVEKO
— NBA (@NBA) April 15, 2023

Yet, as a rook, Royce’s defense was already on display. He’s been a solid shot blocker since year one, having never dipped into the league’s bottom half. But it’s his defensive effort attacking the boards that makes him elite on the wing.

Before the last two seasons, O’Neale’s fgDR% stayed in the league’s 85th percentile or higher. Even throughout the last two years, it still didn’t dip below 11.5%. That would still have had him sitting pretty (both seasons) in the 68th percentile.

Additionally, he’s outdone himself in rebounding his opponent’s missed free throws. Look at his ftDR%. All these rebounding figures are via Cleaning the Glass, by the way. Are you looking at those numbers? Apart from one solitary season… He’s remained in the league’s top tier—never dipping below its 82nd percentile.

ROYCE O'NEALE ON THE FOLLOW

NETS LEAD 102-101 WITH :03 TO GO

📲 https://t.co/1pomQZN8Pi pic.twitter.com/nECnJ99e9p
— NBA (@NBA) January 9, 2023

That’s a level of effort that is not guaranteed in the NBA. It’s that same effort that’s helped him hone two skills coveted by front offices around the league. Being a durable player and also a versatile player.

Since entering the league in the 2017-18 season, O’Neale has appeared in at least 69 contests. That’s at least 69 games every single year for six years. I’d certainly call appearing in at least 85% of your team’s games durable.

Now, how many games a guy plays is easy to quantify. Versatility, not so much. But I found a way. What do I mean by that? What I mean is that from the time he became a full-time starter for the Jazz…

Royce was in the top five 2-man lineup combos used.

In the entire Western Conference.

For three years straight.

Not sure if you’ve watched any professional basketball in the last few years or so… But the West has been an absolute bloodbath. Oh, I almost forgot. That was with a different partner in crime—Mitchell, Bogdonavic, Gobert—in each consecutive season, by the way. A player who’s capable of excelling regardless of who he shares the court with? And who can actually stay on the damn court?

Royce O’Neale has been in the lab all summer 📍 pic.twitter.com/dPjEj3etS0
— Brooklyn Netcast (@BrooklynNetcast) August 22, 2023

That’s the player every GM has literal dreams about. I’m certain.

This isn’t to undersell his time with the Nets, either. It is starting to sound like I’m ignoring his most recent season, doesn’t it? Well, let’s put that to rest. Last season in Brooklyn, his per-game averages in PTS (8.8), AST (3.7), and BLK (1.6) were all personal bests.

Not to mention—when it comes to +/- and games played—he was by far the Nets’ best clutch player.

I’m defining clutch time here as the final four minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. A slim point margin—when the game is within five or six points—is required as well.

Royce O’Neale was pretty damn clutch last year pic.twitter.com/dQCAqLKkxV
— Brooklyn Netcast (@BrooklynNetcast) August 9, 2023

If a player is excelling in the final minutes of a close, competitive game? Well, that’s a hooper (I assume,) who would thrive within a playoff atmosphere. Or, at the very least, be able to impact the postseason.

When it comes to metrics that determine the “impact” a player can have on a game… Pulling LEBRON data may end up being one of the best measurements. It’s not like there’s a player in the modern NBA impacting the game more than Bron, after all.

Now, what does it stand for—LEBRON? LEBRON is short for the following… Luck adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized On-off.

Huh. Do what now?

Its essential function is to measure the total impact per 100 possessions. It’s calculated with box score and advanced on/off numbers. Let’s be honest. It’s right up there with RAPTOR when it comes to complicated statistical acronyms.

Royce O'Neale with the crossover!

(via @BrooklynNets)pic.twitter.com/6dbiaTq6lc
— Nets Videos (@SNYNets) April 5, 2023

Still, I took “Big Meal” and his LEBRON metric each of the past three seasons and compared it to the Grizzlies. The goal was to see how he would stack up with their rotation—in the playoffs, to be specific.

I took O’Neale’s LEBRON rating each season Memphis made the playoffs to contrast. I wanted to see if his rating would improve on the Grizzlies’ top seven guys. Again, that is the goal, after all.

Royce’s rating from last season (-0.87) would’ve improved on Memphis’ playoff rotation. His ’21-’22 rating (0.46) would’ve improved on their rotation that year. As well as the year prior (0.56) in ’20-’21.

He makes the Grizzlies’ playoff rotation better in each of their prior postseason trips.

You throwing in the fact he’s entering the final year of a contract, paying him an average salary of $9 million? That’s the proverbial cherry on top of this affordable option for Memphis to pursue. I’m not saying that I saved the best for last with Royce O’Neale… But it’s one hell of a way to cap off this series. Appreciate you all sticking with me.

If there’s a single thing you remember about the TPE let it be this… You can’t take it with you. So how about making a damn trade before it’s too late? Late like the hour it was when I finished this piece… but that’s neither here nor there.

Because this “Big Meal”—unlike most—does nothing but sit well on you at this hour. So enjoy friends. And happy trading.

Photo credit:(Noah K. Murray/NY Post) Need to catch up? Check out parts 1, 2, and 3 of the TPE series.