What to expect in Memphis basketball’s Battle 4 Atlantis opener versus Michigan, plus a game prediction

One can argue that Memphis basketball’s season truly starts today in The Bahamas.

The 3-0 Tigers—who received 149 votes in this week’s AP Top 25 Poll, more than any other unranked team—take on Michigan (3-1) to begin their run in this year’s Battle 4 Atlantis tournament (4 p.m., ESPN2). The Wolverines received 10 votes in this week’s poll. The Tigers are a 1.5 point favorite.

The winner of this game will take on the winner of Arkansas v. Stanford (6:30 p.m., ESPNU) tomorrow at 4 p.m. CT on ESPN, while the two losers will face off at 6:30 p.m. on ESPNU. Additionally, whichever team loses cannot finish any better than fifth place in the eight-team bracket. This year’s Battle 4 Atlantis also includes the likes of North Carolina, Villanova, Texas Tech and Northern Iowa.

Memphis, which has never won an early-season tournament under Penny Hardaway, comes off a 92-75 victory over Alabama State last Friday—a game in which it could’ve played better. The Hornets recorded 25 offensive rebounds against a Memphis team with 11 players that are at least 6-foot-5 or taller. Memphis only won the total rebounding battle 50-42, and lost the turnover battle by 10. The Tigers finished with 18 turnovers compared to just 8 for the Hornets.

But Memphis finished the game on a 34-22 in the final 13:24 of the contest, and still earned a convincing win. That’s a lot better than what happened to Michigan that same night. The Wolverines were upset at home by Long Beach State 94-86 in a game where they shot 9-of-28 from 3-point range, missed 10 free throws and allowed a 35-point performance from Marcus Tsohonis.

Michigan, which is without head coach Juwan Howard due to him undergoing heart surgery in September, has looked impressive outside of its last game. Interim coach Phil Martelli led the Wolverines to a 3-0 start with an 89-73 win at St. John’s, which is in its first season under Rick Pitino. Memphis’ best win is a 70-55 demolition of Missouri in Columbia on Nov. 10, but Mizzou was later upset at home by Jackson State Sunday.

With Memphis and Michigan ranked No. 32 and 37 in KenPom respectively, this is a good résumé building opportunity for both programs early in the season. The Tigers play in the American Athletic Conference, which doesn’t provide many chances to play high quality opponents, so games like this are crucial in putting together an NCAA Tournament-caliber pedigree.

“Being in the American Conference, we need every Quad 1 win that we can get,” point guard Jahvon Quinerly said. “That’s why going to Mizzou and beating them to get our first Quad 1 was big-time. We’re looking to do the same thing in The Bahamas. I think [our] guys have the right mindset going in, but it’s definitely huge for us. It’s huge.”

Here’s what to expect from the Tigers’ biggest game of the season thus far.

Penny Hardaway’s return

Memphis’ leader will make his season debut this afternoon after serving an NCAA-levied, three-game suspension to start the 2023-24 campaign.

Hardaway was barred from any arena the Tigers played in during his suspension, and was also forbidden from contacting anyone in the program on gamedays. So the former NBA All-Star spent the first couple weeks of his team’s season watching on TV from the Owners Box Sports Grill in Lakeland.

For three games, he got to be a fan like all of us. He experienced streaming issues on ESPN+ like all of us. He was able to see the game, and his team, the way we see it. And he took a lot away from that experience.

“I learned that we have a great group and that anything is possible for us if we put in our mindset, go out there with the gameplan and just be relaxed,” Hardaway said Tuesday. “We could play with anybody in the country. Just watching us score effortlessly out there on the court, and bond together during defensive stretches—really good stretches—I see the greatness in us. And it’s just starting.”

His time behind a TV screen, however, is now over. He’s more than ready to coach this “greatness” himself, and his return has perhaps come at the perfect time.

“[Returning] is gonna be weird because I’ve never had to go through this,” Hardaway said. “To come back in [my] first game against Michigan—that’s pretty good because it gets your juices flowing. You don’t get a chance to come in and have a game where you can sit down and kinda figure it out. You gotta go right away. I always tell my guys to be ready, so I’ll be ready.”

Will David Jones and Jahvon Quinerly further solidify their leadership?

Jones and Quinerly have been the Tigers’ two best players to open the season.

Jones, a transfer from St. John’s, is averaging 14.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 42.1% from the field and and 52.6% from 3-point range. The 6-foot-6 wing took over in Memphis’ last game against Alabama State. He scored 13 points in the final 4:52 of the first half, and finished the contest with 22 points and 10 rebounds—a team-high in both categories.

“I just felt in that moment that we needed somebody to bring energy to the game,” Jones said Friday. “With the couple buckets that I got at the end of the [first half], we came out in the second half with more energy…I was just trying to help my team win the game.”

Quinerly, a transfer from Alabama, currently puts up 14 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 57.7% from the field and 46.1% from the perimeter. After starting slow while still recovering from a month-long knee injury, the 6-foot-1 guard exploded for a huge performance against Missouri. Quinerly recorded 18 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in Columbia, and followed that up with 16-point outing against the Hornets. Having plenty of experience with opportunities like the Battle 4 Atlantis, the 24-year-old looks to lead his team to a good showing in The Bahamas.

“We’re just looking to come in here and do what we’ve been doing all summer,” Quinerly said Tuesday. “Each and every game, I feel like the group getting a little bit closer, closer and closer. That’s really what we’re looking forward to doing out here—just getting closer and being able to compete with these teams.”

The Tigers’ biggest challenge yet.

This will be true for a few different games this season. Heck, it’ll likely be true again later this week. But it doesn’t change the fact that Michigan is still the best team Memphis has faced so far.

For the Wolverines, everything starts with 5-foot-11 sophomore Dug McDaniel. The Washington D.C. native has emerged as a breakout star on Michigan’s revamped roster, averaging 21 points, 6.3 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game this season while shooting 52.6% from the field and 41.4% from 3-point range. McDaniel recorded 26 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds in the Wolverines’ win at St. John’s.

Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua has also been fantastic to start the season. The 6-foot-9 forward averages 18.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game so far. It’s quite a small sample size—four games to be exact—but Nkamhoua’s numbers are very comparable to what Hunter Dickinson put up last season (18.5 points and 9 rebounds per game). Obviously nobody can replace a player like Dickinson, who’s averaging 22 points and 11 rebounds per game this season after transferring to Kansas, but Nkamhoua’s doing a nice job with at least replicating Dickinson’s production.

Other Wolverines to watch out for are 6-foot-7 forward Terrance Williams (12.5 points and 5 rebounds per game), 6-foot-8 forward Will Tschetter (10.5 points per game), 6-foot-4 guard Nimari Burnett (9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game), 6-foot-10 center Tarris Reed (7.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-10 big Tray Jackson (7.5 points, 3 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game).

Michigan—like Memphis—is a very high-scoring team, putting up 91.5 points per game with a season-high of 99 against UNC-Asheville. But the Wolverines’ defense can be a bit suspect at times, as evidenced by allowing a team like Long Beach State—ranked No. 114 in KenPom—to score 94 points on Michigan’s home floor. Memphis, however, has shown to be prone to sluggish starts in all three of its games so far.

The Tigers could be in major trouble if they get out to another bad start against a team like the Wolverines that can score the ball at will.

The Prediction

Memphis wins a shootout and moves to 4-0.

These two teams looked to be about even before last Friday, and perhaps they still are. But Memphis ultimately had the resolve to handily defeat its feisty, but inferior opponent. Michigan did not.

Resolve has been a defining factor for this Memphis team in all three games this season, which could give the Tigers an edge in this tough, neutral court environment. Michigan’s slight size advantage can certainly give Memphis fits throughout the afternoon, but the Tigers’ superior experience and backcourt play should be able to even that out. If Michigan had a reliable backcourt scorer besides McDaniel, this may be a different story. The fact, however, is that it doesn’t.

Memphis should advance to the winner’s bracket and (hopefully) rekindle its feud with Arkansas on Thanksgiving.