What to expect in Memphis basketball’s early-season test at Missouri, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball begins its gauntlet of a non-conference schedule tonight inside Mizzou Arena.

The Tigers cruised to a 94-77, season-opening win over Jackson State Monday, but get a much more daunting challenge in game two at Missouri. Memphis—ranked No. 34 in KenPom—is a 3.5-point underdog to Mizzou, which is ranked No. 56.

This is the first of several non-conference tests Memphis will face away from FedExForum. It also plays at Ole Miss (Dec. 2), at VCU (Dec. 6) and at Texas A&M (Dec. 10). Additionally, the Tigers will be participants in this season’s Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in The Bahamas. They play Michigan to open the tournament on Nov. 22. They’ll then take on Arkansas or Stanford the next day. They can also face schools like North Carolina, Texas Tech, Villanova or Northern Iowa depending on how the tourney shapes out.

Memphis will get a few more quality opportunities at home towards the end of the calendar year with matchups against Clemson (Dec. 16), Virginia (Dec. 19) and Vanderbilt (Dec. 23).

“Our non-conference [schedule] is pretty much our season,” head coach Penny Hardaway said on Oct. 29. “Not that we’re ignoring the AAC or anything like that, it’s just the regular season—when it starts—is gonna be a tough non-conference schedule. So, we’ll have to be ready for that. I think [the players] know that.”

Here’s what to expect for tonight’s Tiger-clash in Columbia, Mo. (8 p.m., SEC Network).

Can Memphis be more efficient?

Hardaway is suspended for Memphis’ first three games of the 2023-24 season due to a minor recruiting violation committed in 2021-22.

During the suspension, he’s barred from whatever arena the Tigers are playing and is prohibited from contacting anyone in the program within a certain number of hours before and after each game. He elected to watch Monday’s game against Jackson State from a private room in an undisclosed sports bar.

Hardaway—like everyone else watching on TV—experienced streaming issues on ESPN+. But he still saw everything he needed to see—Memphis’ 16 turnovers (10 in the first 12 minutes of play), the Tigers allowing four JSU players to score double-figure points and the lackadaisical effort from some of Memphis’ players. And though he also watched Wichita State transfer Jaykwon Walton and St. John’s transfer David Jones score 19 and 15 points respectively, he obviously wasn’t happy with how the Tigers’ first game went.

“For me, I’m gonna be a harsher critic,” Hardaway said Wednesday. “I’m happy we got the win, [but I] didn’t like the fashion of getting out-rebounded or taking some plays off, because we work too hard in practice…I wasn’t pleased because we really didn’t play Memphis basketball.”

UCF transfer Jayhlon Young, who had 3 steals in the win, thought the Tigers played down to their competition.

“I just think we didn’t take Jackson [State] as a serious threat,” he said Wednesday. “So they came out and hit us in the mouth, and then we woke up.”

Florida State transfer Caleb Mills, who scored 10 points against JSU, called it as plainly as he could.

“I mean, we didn’t really play well,” he said Monday.

Mills later grimaced as he gave the Tigers a C- grade for their performance against Mo Williams’ team.

Memphis has to play in a more cohesive manner if it wants to beat Missouri tonight, and all of its players seemingly know that. Rick Stansbury will be the Tigers’ acting head coach in Hardaway’s absence for the second straight game.

Who will be in the Tigers’ starting lineup?

Memphis trotted out an unusual starting 5 against Jackson State—Jahvon Quinerly, Walton, Jones, Nick Jourdain and Malcolm Dandridge. Mills and Louisiana transfer big Jordan Brown, who both started in the Tigers’ two exhibition games, came off the bench.

Both played well despite that, however. Mills scored 10 points and nabbed a team-high 7 rebounds. Brown recorded 11 points and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes.

But Hardaway is unsure if either will start against Mizzou, specifically citing minor knee issues for Mills.

“I’m gonna talk to Coach [Stansbury] and see what makes him comfortable,” he said. “We got nine starters on this team in my mind. At any given time, you can start anybody. [Mills and Brown] are gonna be great at what they do because we need them. I put them with the second group because I wanted that second group to be focused on them. I wanted them to come in the game and get going, and not get lost in all the alpha-males being in the first group.”

Quinerly, a 6-foot-1 transfer point guard from Alabama, has been underwhelming since making his first Memphis start versus LeMoyne-Owen. He scored just 6 points against the Magicians while also racking up 3 rebounds, 2 assists and a whopping 4 turnovers. He shot just 2-for-7 from the field against Jackson State and coughed the ball up three more times. Hardaway doesn’t expect this to last long, though.

“In all fairness to JQ, he’s been out a month,” Hardaway said. “He only got one exhibition before getting into [the Jackson State] game. So, he’s still trying to get back to where he was. Before he went out, he was looking really, really good.”

What Missouri brings to the table

Mizzou is lead by second-year head coach Dennis Gates, who led the (Missouri) Tigers to a widely successful campaign in his first season.

Missouri was ranked No. 23 in the final AP Poll of the season and earned a 7-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament before falling to Princeton in the Round of 32. Gates then had to completely rebuild Mizzou’s roster via the transfer portal after it lost stars like Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge.

Gates did just that and then some. Missouri added impact players like Iowa State’s Caleb Grill (34% from 3-point range in his college career), Colorado State’s John Tonje (14.6 points and 4.7 rebounds per game last season), Indiana’s Tamar Bates (Former top 30 high school recruit) and Oral Roberts’ Connor Vanover (12.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game last season).

Vanover—a former Memphis commit under Tubby Smith—is suspended for Mizzou’s first three games of the season due to his participation in the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, a pre-NBA Draft camp, back in April. The 7-foot-5 center was named the Summit League’s Defensive Player of the Year last season.

Missouri dispatched Arkansas-Pine Bluff 101-79 Monday night, and did so in impressive fashion. Returning guards Sean East II and Nick Honor scored 21 and 18 points respectively. East shot 7-8 from the field and 2-3 from 3-point range. Grill, a 6-foot-3 guard, and forward Noah Carter each added 15. The 6-foot-5 Bates scored 18 points and shot 7-9 from the field and 3-3 from the perimeter. The Tigers collectively shot 56% overall and 40% from deep.

Granted, it was against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but Mizzou looks to at least be a potent offensive team after its first game—even without Tonje, who didn’t play. It also seems like an opportunistic group defensively, blocking 9 shots, getting 7 steals and forcing 16 turnovers on Monday.

The Prediction

Memphis wins a close one to move to 2-0 and get an all-so important Quad 1 win early in the season.

Brown, Dandridge and Jourdain figure to have an easier time in the paint with Vanover being out. A combination of Quinerly, Jones, Walton and Mills is bound to have a big night, which should match the high-octane scoring Missouri’s backcourt will likely produce.

Memphis won’t be perfect, but its collegiate experience, efficient 3-point shooting and overall talent should be enough to escape Columbia with a victory.

Expect a sloppy, but high-scoring affair either way.