What to expect in Memphis basketball’s matchup against Villanova for Battle 4 Atlantis title, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball looks to leave The Bahamas with a trophy.

The Tigers (5-0) take on Kyle Neptune’s Villanova Wildcats (5-1) in the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship game today (2:30 p.m., ESPN). Memphis earned its way to the tournament final with two Top 40 KenPom wins in two days—No. 40 Michigan on Wednesday and No. 38 Arkansas (also ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25 poll) on Thursday. Villanova, which is ranked No. 19 in KenPom, rolled through Texas Tech on Wednesday and upset No. 14 North Carolina on Thursday.

The Tigers and Wildcats, believe it or not, actually have a little bit of history. The two schools have played 12 times, with Villanova leading the all-time series 8-4. The most notable matchup between the two programs was in the 1985 Final Four, when the Wildcats defeated Keith Lee’s Tigers on their way to the school’s first National Championship. Villanova defeated NBA Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in the National title game. Memphis, however, won the two most recent games of the series in 2003 and 2004. Another chapter in this on-and-off rivalry finally comes nearly 20 years later.

Memphis—in a reunion with a much more familiar rival in Arkansas—continued its series of good outings Thursday. The Tigers lit the Razorbacks up offensively, shooting 49% from the field and 33% from 3-point range. They also compiled 9 offensive rebounds, 22 bench points,14 assists and three double-digit scorers—David Jones (36), Nick Jourdain (12) and Jaykwon Walton (11). Defensively, the Tigers forced 17 turnovers, recorded 9 steals and blocked 7 shots.

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ Feast Week finale.

Will David Jones ever stop being awesome?

It’s a legitimate question at this point.

The St. John’s transfer always seems to show up whenever Memphis needs him the most, or simply whenever he feels like it. It looked like both were the case Thursday afternoon. Jones had a career night with 36 points while shooting 10-for-14 from the field 4-of-8 from 3-point range, 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 5 steals. Jones scored 17 in the first half while shooting 6-of-6 from the field, including his second buzzer-beating 3-pointer in three games to give Memphis a 42-37 halftime lead. His humility, however, remains just as evident as his excellent play.

“I feel good. We got the win. That’s all that matters,” Jones said. “[Hardaway] gives us all the confidence in the world to just go out there and play hard. In my mind, it was the defense. Every single game, he just talks about defense. I just came out there to play defense and I started making shots. He just told me to keep going.”

The 6-foot-6 wing may be selling himself a little short in that assessment, though. A lot goes into producing performances like the one Jones had Thursday, such as a tremendous work ethic.

“We have to kick [Jones] out of the gym,” Hardaway said. “We have to make him get rest because he’s always in the gym. He always wants to work, and his hard work is paying off. I don’t know how much of this he did at St. John’s. I don’t know how much of this he did at DePaul. But since he’s come to Memphis, he is a guy that’s always in the gym getting shots up. And he’s being rewarded for that now.”

Jones will look to continue his dominance against Villanova.

Will anyone else join Jones at the top of the stat sheet?

The Tigers certainly have players capable of doing so—Jahvon Quinerly (12.8 points, 5.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game), Jaykwon Walton (12.3 points and 4.5 rebounds per game), Caleb Mills (9.5 points and 4.3 rebounds per game) and Jordan Brown (8.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game).

The numbers in particular are really underwhelming for Brown, who averages just 16.8 minutes per game despite starting the past three games. Memphis—already a perennial offensive team—can unlock a whole new dimension of the its offense if Brown can begin to play for longer stretches.

Quinerly has already shown he can do it with 18 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists at Missouri, Walton scored 17 in the first half against Jackson State and Mills broke the internet Wednesday with his ankle-breaker against Michigan’s Olivier Nkamhoua. Mills finished that game with 10 points.

What Villanova brings to the table

Every conversation surrounding the Wildcats begins and ends with senior guard Justin Moore, who’s in his fifth season with Villanova.

Moore is having his best season yet with averages of 16.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game while shooting 43.4% from the field and 28.9% from 3-point range. The 6-foot-5 guard has averaged at least 11.3 points per game each season since arriving to Villanova. Moore also averages 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks per game.

Other Wildcats to watch out for are 6-foot-5 TJ Bamba (9.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game), 6-foot-7 Tyler Burton (9.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game), 6-foot-5 Jordan Longino (8.5 points per game) and 6-foot-8 Eric Dixon (14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game), who dropped 34 and 10 rebounds in Villanova’s win over UNC.

The Wildcats defeated the Tar Heels despite being outshot from both the field and the perimeter. UNC had a 43.1% field goal percentage compared 38.3% for Villanova. North Carolina also shot much better from beyond the arc at 37.5% compared to 22.7% for Villanova. The Wildcats, however, attempted 36 free throws compared to UNC’s 23.

Villanova, despite losing at Penn last week, already looks to be a good defensive unit and could give Memphis some fits it hasn’t seen before.

The Prediction

Memphis defeats Villanova to win the Battle 4 Atlantis title.

The Tigers simply have better talent, depth and experience in this matchup. The Wildcats’ stingy defense and offensive balance could keep Memphis on its toes throughout the afternoon, but the Tigers have too much offensive firepower to not break through at one point or another.

Memphis has arguably beaten two teams that are better than Villanova in this very tournament, and just might have too much momentum to be stopped in The Bahamas. The Tigers should leave Paradise Islands with another quality win and a 6-0 record.