What to expect in Memphis basketball’s rematch with Florida Atlantic, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball’s regular season finale is here.

The Tigers (22-8, 11-6 AAC) visit Florida Atlantic (23-7, 13-4 AAC) on Saturday afternoon (11 a.m., CBS). Penny Hardaway’s team won its first meeting with the Owls two weeks ago inside FedExForum. But the rematch in Boca Raton is for all the marbles.

Victory is required for Memphis once again if it wants to remain in contention for a double-bye to the quarterfinals of next week’s American Athletic Conference (AAC or the American) Tournament in Fort Worth, Texas. The Tigers will clinch the No. 4 seed in the tourney with a win at FAU and a UAB loss versus SMU. They can also secure the No. 3 seed with a win and a Charlotte loss at East Carolina. They’d also be the No. 3 seed with a win, plus losses from both Charlotte and UAB.

But they’re guaranteed to be either the No. 5 or 6 seed with a loss to Dusty May’s club, meaning they’d have to win four games in four days inside Dickies Arena to earn the American’s automatic bid to this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Speaking of the Big Dance, Memphis’ hopes for an at-large bid also remain on the line. The Tigers—ranked No. 70 in the NCAA’s NET rankings and No. 71 in KenPom with six Quad 1 and 2 victories—are currently the top team on ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s “Next Four Out” list, which is essentially five spots out from being in the field. But Hardaway’s dreams for a third consecutive March Madness appearance would almost certainly come down to the AAC Tourney if his team fails at FAU.

“We put ourselves into a predicament [by] losing those four games in a row, and then losing other games during conference [play]. So, everybody’s just playing like each game’s our last,” Nae’Qwan Tomlin said Thursday. “If we lose, this might be the end of our season.”

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ first trip to Baldwin Arena.

Hardaway wants the Tigers to ‘have fun.’

The Tigers looked quite stiff to start last Sunday’s win over UAB. They couldn’t buy a stop during the game’s opening period, and allowed the Blazers to essentially do whatever they wanted before halftime.

Andy Kennedy’s team shot 67.6% from the field and 57.1% from the 3-point line in the first half, and went on a 41-19 run in nine minutes and 44 seconds to claim a 61-39 advantage with 1:25 left before intermission. Memphis, meanwhile, shot 38% from the floor and were held without a field goal for nearly seven minutes until Jahvon Quinerly broke the drought at the 1:03 mark.

And while Hardaway’s club responded with a 67-26 run to beat UAB by 19 points, a similar start could doom it at FAU. So, it’s imperative the Tigers enter Saturday’s game ready and relaxed.

“I think that what you keep them loose with is preparation. The preparation should take away all of the nervous energy,” Hardaway said Thursday. “And you try to tell them to have fun. You don’t start putting a lot of pressure on guys because that’s when it can go the opposite way…On Saturday, it’s about having fun and being prepared.”

Can Memphis contain Vladislav Goldin?

Goldin was FAU’s best player in its first meeting with the Tigers on Feb. 25.

Memphis, which was without Malcolm Dandridge for the first time this season, had no answers for the 7-foot-1 center. Whether it be Tomlin, Nick Jourdain or even Jaykwon Walton, no U of M defender could stop Goldin from having his way. He finished the contest with a team-high 22 points on 9-for-9 shooting to go with 8 rebounds, including 3 on the offensive glass.

The Tigers may have gotten away with it in Memphis, but allowing Goldin to have a similar outing in a hostile environment could prove costly.

“He’s a lengthy, tall player. He has the strength on me. But I have the advantage in the quickness and the mobility,” Jourdain said Thursday. “We’ve been preparing. Coach Penny and coach Stansbury have given me a lot of guidance on how to guard the post. So, I’m ready and I’m super excited.”

What happened the last time Memphis faced FAU?

The two teams went back-and-forth in their first meeting, especially in the second half.

But Memphis ultimately found itself in control down the stretch. The Tigers used an 11-1 run in three minutes and 45 seconds to take a 73-63 lead with 3:36 left to play. But FAU had one last gasp.

Johnell Davis, who finished with 20 points, made four free throws in a row to cut the deficit to six points. Brandon Weatherspoon then hit a 3-pointer to make it a 75-70 game with 1:13 to go. Davis closed the gap to three points a few seconds later, making the score 75-72 with 56 seconds left.

Hardaway’s team blew a late lead to May’s club last year in the NCAA Tournament, which ended the former’s season. But Memphis didn’t let that happen again. Instead, it clamped up on defense and forced a missed 3-pointer by Weatherspoon. David Jones rebounded the ball with 21 ticks on the clock, and was immediately fouled by FAU. The AAC’s leading scorer (21.9 points per game) couldn’t help but flex on his way to the free throw line.

“I had to. [FAU] was talking too much,” he said postgame.

Jones’ two makes at the charity stripe put Florida Atlantic away for good, giving Memphis its long-awaited revenge on the Owls. He finished the contest with a game-high 25 points to go with 11 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists on 8-for-20 shooting. Tomlin had 21 points, 8 rebounds (5 offensive), 3 steals and 2 blocks. Jahvon Quinerly totaled 14 points and 6 assists. And Jaykwon Walton recorded 11 points, 5 rebounds and 3 steals.

The U of M shot 44% from the field and just 19% from 3-point range. It also racked up 15 offensive rebounds 13 forced turnovers, 11 steals, 11 assists and 4 blocks. Memphis scored 38 points in the paint and 18 points off turnovers in game that featured 5 ties and 14 lead changes.

Florida Atlantic shot 44% on its field goal attempts and 25% on its 3-point tries. It also outrebounded Memphis 40-38 while grabbing 13 of its own missed shots. The Owls finished the afternoon with 40 points in the paint, 12 assists, 6 forced turnovers, 3 steals and 3 blocks.

May’s club—currently on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble—has since bounced back with two consecutive wins, including an 80-76 victory at North Texas on Wednesday. It’s now ranked No. 34 in the NET and No. 39 in KenPom, making Saturday’s game a Quad 1 opportunity for the Tigers. FAU—the No. 16 scoring offense in college basketball—is also slotted at No. 17 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 97 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

The Prediction

Memphis completes the sweep over Florida Atlantic.

The oh-so-desperate Tigers are playing like a group possessed right now, and a fraudulent FAU squad probably won’t stop this train from chugging along. This should be another high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, but Hardaway’s team simply looks better than May’s right now.

Expect Memphis to keep its dreams alive in Boca Raton.