What to expect in Memphis basketball’s rematch with SMU, plus a game prediction

After losing for the fifth time in their last eight games Thursday, the Memphis Tigers are tasked with a nearly impossible mission.

They likely need to win their final six regular season games—three of them being projected Quad 1 opportunities—just to remain in contention for an at-large bid to this year’s NCAA Tournament. And if Memphis (18-7, 7-5 AAC) fails, it’ll have to win the American Athletic Conference tournament to advance to the Big Dance.

It’s indeed an unfortunate situation for a team once ranked No. 10 in the Associated Press Top 25 with a 15-2 record. But Penny Hardaway and Co. have made their own bed thanks to major defensive struggles, chemistry issues and subpar efforts versus conference foes. The Tigers are now down to No. 80 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 82 in KenPom. Jerry Palm (CBS), Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and most other bracketologists currently have them well outside of the field.

The good news for Memphis, however, is it can still decide if it wants to lie in its dirty sheets or not. There’s still at least a glimmer of hope this season can be turned around. Hardaway’s team has proven it’s talented enough to let that hope shine, but it’s also proven it can make that hope disappear just as easily.

“At the end of the day, you gotta fight. That’s just what it’s all about,” Hardaway said after Memphis’ 76-66 loss at North Texas Thursday. “We’re never gonna quit…These are fifth-year guys. They gotta know that [the season’s] coming to an end. And when you play a game like this, you’re hurting yourself if you’re not gonna go out there and fight for the entire game.”

The game Hardaway’s referring to is the Tigers’ upcoming rematch with SMU on Sunday afternoon (3 p.m., ESPN). Memphis won the first matchup against the Mustangs (18-7, 9-3 AAC) on Jan. 7 inside FedExForum. But it trailed by as much as 15 points and needed a Jahvon Quinerly game-winner to escape with a 62-59 victory in the final seconds.

The Tigers will earn a fourth Quad 1 win if they beat Rob Lanier’s team again, which is sorely needed right after blowing a Quad 1 opportunity at North Texas. Memphis—currently 7th-place in the AAC—can also gain leverage in the conference standings by defeating the 4th-place Mustangs. Hardaway’s club must finish at least No. 4 in the league to receive a bye to the AAC tournament quarterfinals.

Here’s what to expect when Memphis visits Moody Coliseum.

3-point defense must improve.

Memphis has struggled to defend 3-point shooting all season long, but its hardships in that department reached a breaking point against North Texas.

The Mean Green hit their first five 3-point attempts and scored their first 24 points from beyond the arc. Whether it was Jason Edwards, John Buggs III or anyone else, North Texas got whatever it wanted from the perimeter in the first half. The Tigers allowed open 3-pointer after open 3-pointer, and nearly let the game get away from them in the first few minutes

But they then used a 12-0 run to take a 25-24 lead with 3:36 left until halftime. UNT still took a 33-30 advantage into the locker room, however. The Mean Green hit nine 3-pointers in the game’s first 20 minutes, though it also made just two shots from inside the arc.

Memphis did nothing to stop the 3-point barrage in the second half. North Texas used a 10-0 run early in the period to take a 49-38 lead with 12:45 to go, and Memphis never recovered. The Mean Green were 7-for-13 from the 3-point line in the second half, and made just six shots from inside the arc.

The Tigers particularly had no answers for Edwards, who gashed Memphis time and time again throughout the contest. He scored all 15 of his first half points from behind the 3-point line, finishing the period 5-for-5 from beyond the arc. Whether he was stepping back into NBA range or taking wide-open jumpers, the sophomore’s heater never stopped.

Edwards scored 15 more points in the second half and made two more 3-pointers. He also put up 4 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal in the game’s final 20 minutes. He finished the game with 30 points on 7-of-9 perimeter shooting.

“I didn’t do a good enough job of explaining…who they were and what was gonna happen because they wanna shoot 3s,” Hardaway said postgame. “We understood who was who. It was just kinda bad decision making. And they made us pay on every last one of them.”

The Mustangs are shooting 34.6% from 3-point range this season, which is good for No. 6 in the AAC. But they did hit just three perimeter shots in 21 attempts during last month’s meeting with the Tigers. So, perhaps Memphis will fare better on the defensive end of the court Sunday.

Will David Jones and Jahvon Quinerly bounce back?

The Tigers’ two best players were both putrid against North Texas.

Jones recorded a double-double with 14 points and 16 rebounds, but he only shot 2-for-13 from the field and 2-for-8 from 3-point range. He also recorded just two assists with two turnovers. The 6-foot-6 wing was still Memphis’ leading scorer, though.

“I think David’s performance was definitely hampered by trying to chase around Jason Edwards in the first half. That’s not what I wanted from him. He took the challenge and it hurt him more than it hurt Jason, because [Edwards] actually had a great game. Scoring wise, this is David’s worst game because to me he was tired,” Hardaway said. “I told to him allow somebody else to do it. His pride was like, “I got it.” It definitely hurt us on the offensive end.”

Quinerly completely disappeared for most of the night. The 6-foot-1 guard scored just 8 points while shooting 3-for-10 on his field goal tries and 2-for-7 from beyond the arc. He also put up just 4 rebounds and 3 assists with 3 turnovers.

Jones and Quinerly had a combined plus-minus grade of -10, which doesn’t demonstrate anything close to what Memphis needs from both guards moving forward. The Tigers are at their best when Jones (21.6 points per game) and Quinerly (13.4 points per game) are. And given the Tigers need to be in top form right now, it’d be optimal for their top-two scorers to be that as well.

What happened the last time Memphis faced SMU?

Memphis got off to a horrendous start in its last meeting with the Mustangs.

It had no answers for SMU’s half-court defense in the game’s 20 minutes, and got stifled at nearly every turn by shooting just 10-for-24 from the field in the first half. The Tigers even had a stretch where they went more than six minutes without making a field goal, which was only broken by a goaltending call against SMU with 6:08 left in the first half.

The Mustangs led by as much as 15 with 5:04 remaining until halftime, but Jayhlon Young’s intense play gave Memphis a small spark in the opening period’s waning moments. The 6-foot-2 guard first made a fastbreak layup off a Nick Jourdain steal. He then assisted Jaykwon Walton for the latter’s first 3-pointer of the game. And Young concluded the 7-0 run by converting another bucket at the rim, cutting SMU’s lead to 30-22 with 1:45 left in the first half. That’s as close as Memphis would get before halftime, however, as the Mustangs then closed the half on a 6-2 run and claimed a 36-24 advantage at the break.

The Tigers opened the second half on a 10-2 run to cut SMU’s 12-point halftime lead to just four at the 16:34 mark.

They then went on another 7-3 run to tie the game at 41-41 with 13:19 left. Finally, through all the missed free throws and empty offensive possessions, Memphis took its first lead of the game at 49-46 after David Jones nailed a mid-range jumper despite being fouled, plus a made free throw.

SMU later worked its way back to a tied game with 2:01 to go, the two teams having scored 58 apiece. Both schools then reached a complete standstill, with neither giving an inch defensively. Memphis kept chunking up 3-pointer after 3-pointer, while the Mustangs continuously missed opportunity after opportunity—whether it be missed free throws, jumpers clanking to the floor or layups being rejected at the rim.

The Tigers tied up the Mustangs with 12 seconds to go, and the possession arrow just so happened to go their way. So Memphis had its chance to take the final shot of regulation, and Quinerly saw his chance to enact déjà vu. Just like he did on Jan. 4 at Tulsa, the 6-foot-1 guard sized his defender up, stepped back and drained a game-winning 3-pointer with three ticks left on the clock. And like Tulsa, SMU could not answer.

Jones led the Tigers with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists on 6-for-16 shooting. Quinerly racked up 11 points and 4 assists. Walton scored 10 points and 4-of-8 shooting. Malcolm Dandridge recorded 9 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. Young compiled 6 points and 3 rebounds. Jourdain had 4 blocks and 3 steals. Nae’Qwan Tomlin finished with just 2 points and 3 rebounds after fouling out.

Memphis, which trailed for 28 minutes and 18 seconds, shot 44% from the field, 30% from 3-point range and 53% from the free throw line. The Tigers also forced 16 turnovers, including 6 steals, and compiled 10 blocks and 13 assists.

SMU, meanwhile, shot 34% on its field goal attempts, 57% at the charity stripe and a dreadful 14% from the 3-point line. The Mustangs, like Memphis, forced 16 turnovers and stole the ball nine times. They also outrebounded the Tigers 43-35 while totaling 19 offensive rebounds, 12 assists and 6 blocks despite the loss.

Lanier’s club has gone 8-2 in 10 games since last facing Memphis, including a 71-68 win over North Texas last Sunday. It also won at Tulane 87-79 in its last outing on Thursday, in which guard Chuck Harris put up 25 points and 6 assists. Zhuric Phelps still leads the team in scoring with 14.6 points per game, however. SMU is currently ranked No. 40 in the NET, No. 42 in KenPom, No. 58 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

SMU puts Memphis’ at-large hopes to bed.

The Tigers looked out of sorts in their loss to North Texas, so facing a team as balanced as the Mustangs doesn’t feel optimal for them right now. Hardaway’s club was on its heels for most of last month’s game and is just as prone to another bad start this time around, which is likely fatal in a hostile road environment.

Expect another scrappy outing where the home team comes out victorious.