What to expect in Memphis basketball’s rematch with Tulane, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball is coming off back-to-back victories, yet it’s still stuck in the quicksand known as the NCAA Tournament bubble.

The Tigers (17-6, 6-4 AAC) beat Wichita State (No. 150 in the NET) and Temple (No. 259 in the NET) by a combined nine points in the last week. But squeaking out wins over inferior opponents won’t help them regain their once-guaranteed tourney status, nor will it improve their dreadful computer numbers. Memphis is currently No. 77 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 78 in KenPom. For reference, Nevada was the lowest-rated KenPom team to receive an at-large bid to last year’s 68-team tournament, and it was No. 62.

The good news for Penny Hardaway’s team, however, is it still has time to make things right. The Tigers are projected to have three Quad 1 opportunities (at SMU, v. FAU and at FAU) and a Quad 2 opportunity (at North Texas) in their final eight regular season games. They can also still earn an automatic bid to this year’s bracket by winning next month’s AAC Tournament. Memphis currently sits at No. 6 in the league, and needs to finish in the top four to receive a first-round bye in the conference tourney.

Some of the Tigers’ non-conference opponents have caught fire lately. Clemson is up to No. 29 in the NET and VCU is now No. 75. This means Memphis, which also won at No. 47 Texas A&M, owns three Quad 1 wins. Virginia (No. 34 in the NET) can give the U of M a fourth one if it moves into the top 30.

Another key in Memphis’ at-large hopes is avoiding bad losses, which is what it’ll be tasked with in its next outing. The Tigers are set for a rematch with Tulane (13-9, 4-6 AAC) inside FedExForum Sunday (1 p.m., ESPN2). The Green Wave beat Memphis 81-79 on Jan. 21 at Devlin Fieldhouse, but that was just a Quad 2 loss for the latter. If Ron Hunter’s team wins at Memphis for the second year in a row, the Tigers will have a second Quad 3 loss, which would more or less eliminate their chances for an at-large bid.

Here’s what to expect in the 11th all-time meeting between Hardaway and Hunter.

Will Jonathan Pierre keep expanding his role?

The 6-foot-10 wing has struggled to cultivate a presence in Memphis’ rotation this season.

A Division II transfer for Nova Southeastern, Pierre never played more than nine minutes in a game before Thursday night. But he saw extended playing time against Temple, and fully took advantage. He scored 10 points in 15 minutes while shooting 3-of-4 from 3-point range. And though he made just one of his four free throw attempts, his contributions proved valuable in the Tigers’ 84-77 win.

Hardaway has been searching for reliable bench pieces throughout the past month. And if Pierre builds off his last performance, perhaps the sixth-year coach has found one.

“[Pierre’s] been having a better attitude, which is making him play better basketball,” Hardaway said Thursday. “I train him, so I know his talent. He’s the most skilled player on the team when his mental is right.”

Hardaway says he wants to shorten his rotation.

Memphis has seemingly found a reliable starting lineup with Jahvon Quinerly, David Jones, Jaykwon Walton, Nick Jourdain and Nae’Qwan Tomlin. But it’s still struggling with limiting its substitutions, particularly early in games.

The Tigers executed eight substitutions in the first 10 minutes, and used 11 players in the first 13 minutes against Wichita State last Saturday. Hardaway then did nine substitutions in the first 11 minutes, and played 10 Tigers in the first 13 minutes at Temple. But the former NBA All-Star knows he can’t live that way forever.

Memphis needs to establish a pecking order sooner rather than later, and Hardaway says he’s looking to do just that.

“It’s just time now with eight games to go. If guys aren’t ready, they’re not ready,” he said. “We’re trying to get it to seven or eight [players], whatever that seven or eight is.”

What happened the last time Memphis faced Tulane?

Memphis’ loss at Tulane last month featured 15 ties and 11 lead changes.

The Tigers shot 47% from the field and 38% from 3-point range. Hardaway’s team also outrebounded Tulane 39-33 while racking up 13 offensive rebounds, 12 assists and 32 points in the paint. Defensively, it had 7 forced turnovers, 12 blocks and 3 steals.

Hunter’s club shot 41% on its field goal attempts and 42% on its 3-point tries. The Green Wave also compiled 16 assists, 14 forced turnovers, 9 offensive rebounds, 7 steals and 5 blocks. Sion James and Kevin Cross led Tulane with 22 and 21 points respectively.

Malcolm Dandridge had one of the best performances of his career. He got things started in the first half by rejecting a Cross layup. He did so again seven minutes later, and then blocked Tre’ Williams’ jumper 30 seconds after that. The 6-foot-9 center followed that up by chasing down Cross for another block at the 2:10 mark, and then rejecting two more layups by Jaylen Forbes and Collin Holloway respectively. He ultimately finished the half with 6 blocks and 5 points.

Dandridge blocked two more shots in the second before fouling out with 58 seconds left to play. He finished the game with 13 points, 8 rebounds and 8 blocks.

The two teams broke even in the first half with 34 points apiece. And they continued that trend to start the second half, matching each other shot for shot—blow for blow.

By the time the second half reached the 12:24 mark, the game was tied at 57-57. The Tigers and Green Wave had both scored 23 points in the half. Memphis eventually built some separation with a 5-0 run, and controlled much of the final period. But a flagrant foul by Quinerly allowed Tulane to move back in front, the score being 71-70 with 5:30 left.

The Tigers quickly worked their way back to a 75-74 lead with 3:46 on the clock, but Jones’ inbound-pass gamble changed everything. He left James wide-open in the left corner, and the 6-foot-6 guard sunk the 3-point jumper to regain Tulane’s advantage.

Memphis trailed the Green Wave 81-79 with 14 seconds left, and had a chance to either win or tie the game. But it did neither. Jones, who finished the contest with 32 points and 11 rebounds, missed what would’ve been a game-winning 3-pointer. The Tigers didn’t make a single field goal in the final 4:19.

Tulane has since lost three out of its last four games, including an 89-88 tilt at UTSA on Jan. 24. The Green Wave earned a 92-80, overtime win over Temple in their last outing last Sunday. KenPom currently ranks them at No. 72 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 203 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis evens the score with Tulane.

It’d take a miracle for the Tigers to get an at-large bid if they lose Sunday, so this is undoubtedly another must-win game for them. The Green Wave tore up Memphis’ 3-point defense in their last meeting, and the Tigers also struggled to beat Hunter’s zone defense at times. The key to Memphis’ success this time around is simply being more consistent on both ends, especially defensively.

The Tigers are 10-1 when they’ve allowed less than 10 perimeter makes this season, but are just 7-5 when they’ve allowed 10 or more. The Green Wave went 10-of-24 from beyond the arc in last month’s matchup. But Memphis’ opponents have shot a combined 31% from 3-point range in its last two outings, so things are improving on that front.

Expect Hardaway’s club to prevail in another high scoring affair.