What to expect in Memphis basketball’s rematch with UAB, plus a game prediction

The Tigers will get yet another chance for revenge on Senior Day.

They’ve already evened the score with both Tulane and Florida Atlantic in the past few weeks. And they must do the same against UAB (18-8, 10-5 AAC) Sunday inside FedExForum (4:30 p.m., ESPN2) to keep their slight hopes for an at-large bid to this year’s NCAA Tournament alive.

Memphis’ chances at a double-bye in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament also remain at stake. Penny Hardaway’s team (21-8, 10-6 AAC) currently sits in fifth place in the league thanks to UTSA’s upset win at SMU on Saturday. But it still must jump up at least one more spot by regular season’s end to automatically advance to the tournament’s quarterfinals. If it fails, it’ll have to win four games in four days instead of three games in three days to get the AAC’s automatic bid for March Madness.

The Tigers would move into fourth place with a win on Sunday. But victory is likely required in both of their remaining regular season games (vs. UAB and at FAU) to stay there. The good news is Memphis is playing more than well enough to do just that.

It’s won its last three contests by an average margin of 17.3 points, with Thursday’s 82-58 clinic at East Carolina being the most impressive. The Tigers held the Pirates to 30% shooting from the field and 15% shooting from 3-point range (0% in the second half), and they never trailed throughout the 40-minute affair. The win catapulted Memphis to No. 73 in both KenPom and the NCAA’s NET rankings.

“They did it as a group and they did it together,” Hardaway said postgame. “There’s no animosity or envy of anybody. Whoever has the shot—whoever has the hot hand—gets the ball, and that’s great harmony right there. That’s what I love, because that’s just basketball. The great teams that are in the [Associated Press] Top 25, that’s what they do. To get that recognition again, you gotta play the game the right way on both ends.”

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ rematch with the Blazers, in which the former is a 7.5-point favorite.

Nae’Qwan Tomlin is ‘getting comfortable’ at the right time.

The Kansas State transfer played his best game as a Tiger versus Florida Atlantic, and his follow-up at ECU did not disappoint.

Tomlin scored 20 points on 7-for-8 shooting to go with 5 rebounds and 2 blocks in 30 minutes. Fifteen of those points came in the second half alone. The 6-foot-10 forward averaged 18.5 points and 5.8 rebounds in his last four outings, and is finally becoming the player Hardaway envisioned when he signed him in mid-December.

His timing is truly impeccable, with Memphis needing to play its best basketball and starting center Malcolm Dandridge being absent until further notice due to an internal investigation regarding his involvement in alleged academic fraud.

“[Tomlin’s] getting comfortable,” Hardaway said. “It’s been hard for him to try to figure out where to pick his spots, because he was so respectful of the guys that’ve already been here. Now, they’re starting to see where he likes the ball. And he’s starting to find his way.”

Memphis must attack the offensive glass.

The Tigers’ 24-point win at East Carolina came without almost any blemishes.

But Memphis’ one pimple was its lack of productivity on the offensive glass. The Pirates pulled in 19 offensive rebounds compared just 5 for the Tigers. Michael Schwartz’s team also won the overall rebounding battle 40-35. Granted, these numbers were largely a product of ECU’s putrid shooting. But Hardaway’s not gonna use that caveat as an excuse.

“A lot of [the offensive rebounds] were when we were up late. But at the end of the day, the good teams finish off doing things the right way,” he said Thursday.

Offensive rebounding was a major component of the Blazers’ 97-88 win over Memphis on Jan. 28. UAB grabbed 16 of its missed shots in that game, with Yaxel Lendeborg accounting for 10 of those. The 6-foot-9 forward, who averages 3.2 offensive rebounds per contest, totaled 26 points and 16 boards against the Tigers. Hardaway’s club cannot let that happen again if it wants to win on Sunday.

What happened the last time Memphis faced UAB?

Memphis got completely humiliated inside Bartow Arena despite a promising start.

The Tigers hit their first eight field goal attempts, including made 3-pointers by Tomlin and David Jones. In fact, their first miss didn’t come until the 12:45 mark in the first half. Memphis finished the opening period with a 58.3% clip from the field and a 45.5% clip from 3-point line.

UAB, meanwhile, shot 45% throughout the game’s first 20 minutes. But it still held a 45-44 advantage at halftime due to the Tigers’ struggles with ball security. Memphis turned the ball over 13 times in the first half. Jones and Jahvon Quinerly combined for 8 turnovers alone in that span.

Memphis’ turnovers didn’t stop in the second half. Jones gave the ball up four more times. Jaykwon Walton lost it twice. Three other players turned it over once. The Tigers ultimately committed nine giveaways in the final period, and 22 for the game.

The Tigers and Blazers traded baskets for the first few minutes of the final period, but the back-and-forth offense didn’t last long. UAB quickly caught fire from behind the 3-point line, and went on a 22-10 run in just over six minutes to take a 13-point advantage with 11:34 to play. Memphis often froze against Andy Kennedy’s zone defenses, and showed little effort to stop the Blazers’ attack. It never really recovered from UAB’s second half onslaught, and lost decisively after making a late push to stay in the game.

Memphis shot 48% from the field and 43% from 3-point range. It also compiled 21 forced turnovers, 15 steals, 14 assists and 14 offensive rebounds. Jones led the way for Memphis with 24 points and 9 rebounds. Dandridge (19), Quinerly (12) and Tomlin (12) also scored in double-figures.

UAB shot 52% on its field goal tries and 45% on its 3-point attempts. It also won the rebounding battle 40-32 while collecting 10 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks. Eric Gaines scored 20 points while shooting 3-of-4 from beyond the arc. Efrem Johnson, Daniel Ortiz and Javian Davis put up 12, 12 and 10 points respectively.

It went on to win five of its next six games after beating Memphis, including a 76-73 overtime victory against Florida Atlantic on Feb. 8. But its season has recently taken a turn for the worse. Rice upset UAB 94-71 in Birmingham on Feb. 21, and the Blazers followed that up with another embarrassing home loss to Wichita State on Wednesday.

Kennedy’s team is down to No. 123 in the NET and No. 133 in KenPom. It’s also now slotted at No. 90 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 199 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to the latter computer. On a more positive note, however, the Blazers are ranked No. 23 in offensive rebounds per game.

The Prediction

Memphis comes through on Senior Day.

The Tigers are playing their best basketball of the year, while the Blazers are simultaneously falling into their worst stretch. Hardaway’s club can ill afford to lose this one considering what’s on the line.

Expect Memphis to win comfortably in its final home game of the regular season.