What to expect in Memphis basketball’s second SEC road test at Ole Miss, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball’s relentless non-conference gauntlet continues. And the Tigers are perhaps entering their toughest stretch to date with three consecutive road games against power conferences foes.

This begins with Memphis (5-1) visiting Ole Miss (6-0) for the second time in three seasons today (1 p.m., ESPN2). It’ll then travel to VCU (Dec. 6) and No. 14 Texas A&M (Dec. 10).

The Tigers and Rebels have already faced off three times in head coach Penny Hardaway’s tenure. Memphis won the first matchup in an 87-86 thriller at FedExForum in 2019-20, which ended with Ole Miss’ Blake Hinson nailing a half-court heave at the buzzer. But the Rebels trailed by four points, not three, so it ultimately didn’t matter. Ole Miss embarrassed Memphis—ranked No. 18 in the country at the time—in Oxford two seasons later 67-63. The Tigers, who started 5-0 in 2021-22, were in the midst of a four-game losing streak that turned into a 9-8 start—undoubtedly the lowest point of Hardaway’s tenure before his team turned things around that season and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. Memphis handled Ole Miss 68-57 during last year’s affair in the 901. The Tigers started the game with a 30-9 run in the first half and cruised to victory from there.

Things are a bit different this time around, though. Ole Miss, which trails 24-9 in its all-time series with Memphis, hired renowned coach Chris Beard to replace Kermit Davis in the off-season. Beard took Texas Tech to the Final Four in 2019, and later left the Red Raiders to coach Texas—his alma mater—in 2021. He led the Longhorns to an NCAA Tournament win in his first season, and then to a 7-1 start last season with wins over Gonzaga and Creighton, plus a No. 1 ranking in KenPom.

Texas, however, fired Beard in December 2022 after he was arrested on a third-degree felony assault charge. The 50-year-old allegedly strangled his fiancée Randi Trew during an altercation inside his Austin, Texas home. But Trew later denied the allegations in spite of evidence and Beard’s charge was dismissed, leading to his hiring at Ole Miss.

His Rebels have now been rebuilt via the transfer portal and are out to an undefeated start this season, including a 72-52 demolition of NC State Tuesday. Memphis comes off its first loss of the year to No. 18 Villanova in last week’s Battle 4 Atlantis championship, but it also earned two top 60 KenPom victories over Arkansas (No. 45) and Michigan (No. 54) in The Bahamas. Arkansas upset No. 7 Duke Wednesday without leading scorer Tramon Mark, who injured his back in a scary fall against No. 17 North Carolina.

The Tigers have received more votes than any other unranked team in the AP Top 25 poll for three consecutive weeks, including 108 in Monday’s rankings. A win in Oxford would almost certainly push them over the edge and into the top 25 next week. Memphis is a 1.5-point favorite.

Here’s what to expect in the latest chapter of this mid-south rivalry.

Can Jordan Brown and the Tigers’ rebounding improve?

Brown and the Tigers’ rebounding woes have been Memphis’ biggest red flags to start the season.

Brown, a 6-foot-11 Louisiana transfer, won the Lou Henson Award last season. The award annually recognizes college basketball’s best mid-major player. And the fifth-year senior was certainly worth the honor with his averages of 19.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game last year. Brown also led Louisiana to a Sun Belt championship and an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2023.

He’s been a far cry from that with Memphis, though, averaging just 6.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game so far. He’s also playing just 14.7 minutes per contest, a steep decline from his 31.9 minutes per game last year. Brown’s struggles became really apparent in The Bahamas. He compiled just 10 total points and 10 total rebounds in the Tigers’ three games while playing just 11 minutes per game.

The Tigers’ rebounding has been an even bigger issue. They’ve been out-rebounded five times and have allowed at least 10 offensive boards in each of those games. Memphis allowed 25 offensive rebounds to Alabama State, 19 to Michigan and 13 to Arkansas. The Wolverines destroyed Memphis on the glass—50 for Michigan to compared to just 28 for Memphis—in the Tigers’ 71-67 victory.

“I think it’s just laziness on our part where guys feel like it’s someone else’s job and not by committee, even though we’ve been preaching it,” Hardaway said Thursday.

But Brown, the expected leader of the Tigers’ frontcourt, has a simple plan to fix both Memphis’ rebounding problems and his own issues.

“One thing I really wanna focus on is being a rebounder,” he said. “I know how we are with rebounding, and that’s something that we’re focusing on too. But I wanna make it a personal goal for myself…Just go get them boards.”

Former Tiger Moussa Cisse will make his Ole Miss debut.

Cisse, a 7-foot center from Conakry, Guinea, started his collegiate career at Memphis in 2020-21 after reclassifying to the Class of 2020. A 5-star prospect, he played his final year of high school at Lausanne Collegiate School in Memphis.

Cisse had a solid freshman season as the Tigers’ starting center. He averaged 6.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting 55.2% from the field, earning him AAC Freshman of the Year honors. He then transferred to Oklahoma State and put up similar numbers the following two seasons. He was named the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2021-22 and earned a spot on the conference’s all-defensive team again last season.

The senior transferred for a second time to Ole Miss upon Beard’s hiring this past summer, but most thought he wouldn’t be eligible this season due to him already using his free, one-time transfer waiver. That was until he was seen warming up with the Rebels Tuesday before their game versus NC State.

Beard confirmed everyone’s suspicions after the game. Cisse is now eligible to play this season.

“I literally knew right before the game,” Beard said.

Beard is not the only one who was caught off guard by Cisse’s waiver being approved. But one person who wasn’t surprised is Cisse’s former coach.

“Before the season started, I thought he was gonna be playing,” Hardaway said Thursday.

What the Rebels bring to the table

Ole Miss—ranked No. 102 in KenPom—doesn’t have an overly impressive résumé.

It owns a 70-67 win over Sam Houston, a 70-69 victory against Detroit Mercy and a 77-76 triumph versus Temple. But the Rebels definitely hit their stride against NC State.

Beard’s team shot 40.7% from the field and 35% from three-point range in the blowout win. They also compiled 10 offensive rebounds, 11 assists and 9 blocked shots while simultaneously forcing 13 turnovers. Ole Miss led by as much as 24.

Auburn transfer Allen Flanigan is the Rebels’ feature attraction. The 6-foot-6 guard averages 19.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game while shooting 44.7% from the floor and an absurd 55.6% from beyond the arc this season. Flanigan recorded a double-double against NC State with 15 points and 10 rebounds.

Senior guard and Memphis native Matthew Murrell looks to be on track for another stellar campaign. The 6-foot-4 wing is putting up 14 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while shooting 40% from the field. Murrell also averages 1.7 steals per contest. He compiled 12 points, 4 steals and 2 rebounds against NC State.

Saint Peter’s transfer Jaylen Murray is the Rebels’ third double-digit scorer. The 5-foot-11 junior averages 12.3 points, 3.8 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game. Murray also shoots 42.2% on his field goal attempts. He contributed 12 points, 4 assists and 2 rebounds in 36 minutes versus the Wolfpack.

Ole Miss also sports a very tall frontcourt with 7-foot-5 Jamarion Sharp, 6-foot-8 Jaemyn Brakefield and the now-eligible, 7-foot Cisse. Sharp, a Western Kentucky transfer, averages 5 rebounds and blocks nearly 3 shots per game. Brakefield averages 8.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists. And Cisse only adds to that with 6.8 points, 8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game last season. If there’s ever a game where Memphis’ big-men need to step up, it’s this one.

Collectively, the Rebels shoot 43.9% from the field, 33.9% from 3-point range and 72.6% at the free throw line. And though Ole Miss scores just 72 points per game, it also allows 64 points per contest from their opponent while also forcing an average of 12.3 turnovers through its six games. Additionally, in case you’re curious, the Rebels pull in 36.7 rebounds per game compared to the Tigers’ average of 39.7.

Ole Miss still awaits the NCAA’s eligibility ruling on Georgetown transfer guard Brandon Murray, who averaged 13.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists last season. He needs a waiver because he already transferred once from LSU to Georgetown in 2022.

The Prediction

Memphis defeats Ole Miss to earn its second road victory against an SEC opponent, and its third SEC win overall in seven games.

This game will certainly be more difficult than it otherwise would be because it’s being played at the SJB Pavilion. But Memphis should still be a clear favorite to win this one.

The Tigers have been better than the Rebels in nearly all facets to start this season. Memphis’ wins are better. Its schedule has been better. Its on-court play has been better. Its talent and experience is also better.

Ole Miss may have blown out NC State, which is ranked No. 73 in KenPom, but the Rebels haven’t been overly impressive besides that. Their inability to handily beat inferior opponents is particularly concerning, as they’ve been in one-possession games with schools from the Horizon League (Detroit Mercy), Conference-USA (Sam Houston) and the American (Temple).

The Rebels’ size advantage in the frontcourt will obviously be a factor, but Memphis’ superior scoring, backcourt play and fast pace should supersede that. The Tigers score 79 points per game and have scored at least 84 in half of their outings. Between David Jones (17.8 points per game), Jaykwon Walton (11.5 points per game), Jahvon Quinerly (11.5 points per game) and others, it’ll likely be difficult for Ole Miss to keep up with Memphis’ high-octane offense.

Expect a game where the Tigers slowly pull away after a back-and-forth start.