What to expect in No. 14 Memphis’ rematch with Wichita State, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball’s NCAA Tournament status—barring a massive surprise—is quite obvious.

The Tigers (21-4, 11-1 AAC) are practically guaranteed to make their third March Madness appearance in four years with just six regular-season games left before next month’s American Athletic Conference (AAC) tournament. Their potential seeding, however, remains a fascinating puzzle.

On one hand, Memphis boasts 10 combined wins in Quads 1 and 2 (No. 12 in Division I), and got nine of those against KenPom’s 4th-best non-conference schedule. Resume-based metrics like the Rating Power Index (RPI) and the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI) rank the Tigers No. 6 and No. 9 in the country respectively. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi are two of many bracketologists who currently project Memphis as a top-5 seed in the Big Dance too.

On the other hand, the Tigers’ computer metrics have dropped like flies throughout AAC play. Memphis now sits outside the top 40 in KenPom, Bart Torvik and the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), largely due to its inefficiencies when facing inferior competition. The Tigers own two Quad 3 losses, and have beaten five combined Quad 3 and 4 opponents by single digits. Bart Torvik presently forecasts Memphis as a No. 9 seed come March.

Memphis got some idea of where it truly stands Saturday, since the NCAA Tournament selection committee left the Tigers out of Saturday’s midseason reveal of its current top 16 overall seeds. This means that Memphis is currently viewed as a No. 5 seed or lower with a month left before Selection Sunday.

Penny Hardaway isn’t worried, though. In his mind, seeding will take care of itself as long as the Tigers handle business over the next four weeks.

“Just keep stacking wins. That’s what you wanna do. If you keep stacking wins, we’ll be where we wanna be,” Hardaway said Thursday. “That’s what we talk to the team about. We talk about, ‘Just keep winning. If you keep winning, you’ll be in the right position.’”

Here’s what to expect when No. 14 Memphis visits Wichita State (14-10, 4-7 AAC) inside Charles Koch Arena on Sunday (11 a.m., ESPN).

Colby Rogers gets another crack at his former team.

The former Shocker struggled mightily in his first reunion with WSU last month.

Rogers (10.8 points per game) shot an abysmal 1-of-10 from the field and notched just 3 points. He also compiled 3 rebounds and a steal in 35 minutes.

Hardaway partially takes the blame for Rogers’ bad outing, since he didn’t check on the 6-foot-3 guard before tipoff to ensure his mental preparedness. He won’t make that mistake twice.

“I didn’t say anything to him [before the first game]. There’s gonna be a couple things I’ll say to him [this time], and I think he’ll be OK,” Hardaway said. “He’ll learn from the mistakes that he had in the first game. They were definitely adamant about not letting him get open looks, and he knows that’s gonna happen. So, we’ll have to make some adjustments.”

Tyrese Hunter is holding steady despite knee injury.

Hunter, who was sidelined for the first time in his college career against Temple last Sunday, committed two turnovers less than a minute into his return at South Florida Thursday.

He then asked off the floor before the first media timeout, briefly sending Hardaway into a small eternal panic. His fears quickly washed away, however, once he saw Hunter’s interaction with the trainer.

“He tweaked his ankle,” Hardaway said. “I thought it was his knee. I’m glad it wasn’t.”

Hunter, who averages 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting 42.4% at the 3-point line, found his rhythm soon after he checked back in. The 6-foot guard totaled 15 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists on 3-for-5 perimeter shooting against USF.

Hardaway remains cautious about Hunter’s health with postseason ball on the not-so-long horizon, but is simultaneously thrilled to see the Texas transfer get back to normal.

“I was happy for him, because he needs the rhythm, he wants to be in rhythm and we want him out there on the floor,” Hardaway said. “We’re not gonna force him to do anything. We gotta make sure that he’s healthy. Of course, want him [in] March [and] April. But if he wants to play, we’re gonna let him play.”

What happened last time?

Memphis put on its worst first-half performance this season during its first meeting with the Shockers last month.

The Tigers recorded 14 turnovers compared to just 2 assists in the period. But Wichita State, luckily for Memphis, didn’t properly capitalize on the Tigers’ turnover spree.

The Shockers finished the first half with just 6 points off turnovers, 2 fastbreak points and 36% field-goal shooting. They entered halftime with a 27-23 advantage, and never led by more than 7 points in either half.

Memphis eventually made WSU pay with a 38-26 second half, and put Paul Mills’ team away with a 12-2 run in the final four minutes and 29 seconds to secure a 61-53 victory. Just three Shockers—Quincy Ballard (10), Harlond Beverly (9) and Corey Washington (7)—scored in the final 20 minutes. Leading scorer Xavier Bell (14.6 points) went scoreless against Hardaway’s club.

PJ Haggerty, meanwhile, led the Tigers 22 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals on 8-for-11 shooting. Hunter totaled 16 points, 4 steals and 3 rebounds.

Wichita State’s loss at Memphis proved to be the second of a four-game skid, but the Shockers have since won their last three outings—albeit by 8 or less points. Bart Torvik ranks WSU as the No. 194 team in the country since its visit to FedExForum on Jan. 23, slotting it at No. 253 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 137 in adjusted defensive efficiency throughout that span.

Wichita State point guard Justin Hill (13.3 points, 3.4 assists and 3.2 rebounds) has missed three consecutive games with a toe injury. Mills gave no updates on Hill’s status to Wichita reporters Friday.

The Shockers are also dealing with a flu outbreak, according to The Wichita Eagle. Several players are currently ill.

The Prediction

Memphis completes the sweep.

Wichita State lost to the Tigers despite limiting them to 6 assists and forcing 20 turnovers last time. How can the Shockers beat a Memphis team that’s averaging a plus-6.2 assist-to-turnover differential over its last six games?

Expect the Tigers to extend their winning streak to nine.