What to expect in No. 15 Memphis’ AAC opener at Tulsa, plus a game prediction

Non-conference play went about as well as it realistically could’ve for Memphis basketball.

The Tigers (11-2) won seven Quad 1 and 2 games, tied with No. 1 Purdue for most in the country, in the season’s first two months. This includes a road victory at Texas A&M, and home victories over No. 16 Clemson and Virginia. Penny Hardaway’s team has also beaten the likes of Michigan, Arkansas, Missouri and VCU away from FedExForum.

Memphis built a resume in its non-league schedule that’s bolstered it to No. 15 in the AP Top 25 poll. It’s also ranked No. 7 in the CBS Sports Top 25 and 1, No. 8 in NCAA correspondent Andy Katz’s Power 36 and No. 10 in CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein top 45. The Tigers—No. 34 in KenPom and No. 40 in the NCAA NET rankings—are currently projected as a No. 4 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament by bracketologists Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS).

But now is not the time to celebrate for Hardaway and Co. Memphis still has to endure two months of American Athletic Conference play, which begins Thursday at Tulsa (7 p.m., ESPN+), before it can focus on its more lofty goals. The Tigers are 4-4 against the Golden Hurricane in six seasons under Hardaway. But they’ve won the last three matchups, including an 80-68 affair at the Donald W. Reynolds Center last year. Memphis is a 9-point favorite for Thursday’s game.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis basketball’s AAC opener.

Can Memphis avoid playing down to its competition?

Hardaway blasted the Tigers after their 81-70 win over Austin Peay last Saturday, a game that saw Memphis go back and forth for the most of the evening with a 7-7 team ranked No. 229 in the NET, No. 242 in KenPom, No. 293 in offensive efficiency and No. 185 in defensive efficiency before tip-off.

Memphis put out a similarly disappointing outing the game before against 4-7 Vanderbilt, which was slotted at No. 234 in KenPom, No. 294 in the NET, No. 248 in offensive efficiency and No. 226 in defensive efficiency heading into the contest. It clearly hasn’t been playing with an adequate amount of focus or intensity in games where it’s perceived as a heavy favorite, which Hardaway attributes to a lack of interest from the players.

“We can’t get over the hump to be professional enough to come out and compete. Dezi Jones (Austin Peay guard) came out and competed more than anybody. That’s embarrassing to me as a coach for someone to be out-hustling us—out-scrapping us on our home floor in front of our fans who pay money to come watch us play,” he said last Saturday. “We played nine really good games in a row, and guys had to defend or else we were gonna get blown out. Now, they’re looking down on teams and feeling like ‘if I’m not scoring, we’re gonna win the game anyway and I’m not as interested.’”

The Tigers face a unique challenge in the second half of their 2023-24 campaign. They’ll go from the hunters to the hunted for the rest of the regular season, and transition from the team that aspires to the team to beat. Memphis will get everyone’s best shot in the AAC, and Hardaway already thinks it has a problem with playing down to competition after its last two performances.

“It happened in the Vandy game. I’m not disrespecting Vandy, but they were 4-7. And even though Austin Peay can compete, we just didn’t have the fight,” he said. “All you want is the fight. It doesn’t matter if you miss every shot. You just want the fight. We’re not getting the fight every possession…I’m seeing a trend now.”

David Jones, the Tigers’ top scorer, once again led the way with 19 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists on 5-of-14 shooting. The 6-foot-6 wing, who failed to score 20 points for the first time in six games against Austin Peay, reiterated Hardaway’s sentiment in the simplest way possible.

“We just gotta play hard every game, no matter who we play against,” Jones said. “They’ll say we’re playing Virginia tomorrow, and we’re all hyped up because we’re gonna play Virginia and we wanna beat them. They’ll say we’re gonna play Austin Peay and it’s like ‘ha, we’re playing Austin Peay. We’re gonna beat them regardless.’ These days in college, anybody can beat anybody.”

Will Jones and/or Caleb Mills be available?

Both Jones and Mills, two of the Tigers’ top four leading scorers, could be out against Tulsa.

Jones, a St. John’s transfer, has been dealing with an illness since before Christmas. He needed IV treatment to play against Vanderbilt on Dec. 23, according to Hardaway, and has rarely practiced in the last two weeks. However, the 22-year-old has still played in every game and is expected to do so again Thursday, per sources.

“I don’t what it is, because I’ve been like this for like two weeks…I don’t feel right, though. I don’t feel like myself, but I’ll still fight through it and hopefully get better soon,” Jones said last Saturday.

Mills sat out the entire second half against Austin Peay after suffering a hip injury in the first half. Hardaway said both Jones and Mills haven’t practiced all week during his radio show Tuesday. The Florida State transfer’s status for Thursday is currently up in the air.

“Caleb has been hurt all season,” Hardaway said last Saturday. “Caleb is a warrior. He’s been battling tendonitis, and that tendonitis definitely hurts. And then he hurt his hip [tonight].”

What Tulsa brings to the table

The Golden Hurricane (9-3) don’t look like the most impressive opponent on paper. Eric Konkol’s team is just No. 180 in KenPom and No. 190 in the NET, after all. But Tulsa has won its last four games following a 5-3 start, which is already an improvement from the 5-25 campaign it had a year ago.

TCU transfer PJ Haggerty has provided a much-needed boost for Tulsa this season. The 6-foot-3 freshman guard is averaging 17 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game while shooting 44.8% from the field. Haggerty also nabs 2.3 steals a contest and has scored at least 21 points in three of his last four games. The Crosby, Texas native was the No. 126 player in the Class of 2022.

Louisiana Tech transfer Cobe Williams has been another positive addition. The 6-foot guard averages 12 points and 3.5 assists along with a 35.7% shooting clip. Williams also boasts a career-high average in steals of 2.3. He played under Konkol for three seasons at Louisiana Tech.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-8 forward Jared Garcia (10 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per games), 6-foot-7 guard Isaiah Barnes (9.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game), 6-foot-1 guard Tyshawn Archie (9.3 points per game), 6-foot-9 forward Matt Reed (5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-5 forward Carlous Williams (4.4 points and 4 rebounds per game).

Louisiana Tech transfer Keaston Willis will miss the rest of Tulsa’s season with a foot injury, the school announced Tuesday. Willis averaged 12.5 points and 3 rebounds in two games. The senior guard figured to be a key player for the Golden Hurricane this year, and will be seeking a medical redshirt to return in 2024-25.

Collectively, Tulsa scores 77 points per game and shoots 43.8% from the field and 32.6% from 3-point range, but also turns the ball over a whopping 14.3 times per contest. The Golden Hurricane have shown to be an elite group defensively, allowing just 66 points per game while also forcing 15.6 turnovers and 9.5 steals. Konkol’s squad, which is ranked No. 16 in defensive efficiency, will get its biggest challenge yet when facing a Memphis team slotted at No. 105 in offensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis wins handily to start 1-0 in AAC play.

Tulsa’s defensive prowess to start the season makes this matchup a bit scarier than anticipated, especially considering the Tigers’ offensive woes in their last two games. But Hardaway’s team is easily the more talented group here and has no business losing this one.

Expect Memphis to run away with it in the second half after an early push from Tulsa.