What to expect in No. 15 Memphis’ first meeting with SMU, plus a game prediction

This weekend hasn’t exactly gone to plan for Memphis basketball, even if it hasn’t played a game since Thursday.

That’s because the Tigers’ heralded non-conference pedigree took a few hits on Saturday. Their three best wins this season—Texas A&M, No. 19 Clemson and Virginia—all lost by double figures. Both of Memphis losses—Villanova and No. 22 Ole Miss—also fell in decisive fashion. VCU lost to George Washington. Missouri came up short against Georgia. Vanderbilt narrowly lost to Alabama. Arkansas got throttled by 32 versus Auburn. Michigan was defeated by Minnesota on Thursday.

To top it off, No. 17 Florida Atlantic lost to a sub-100 NET opponent for the third time this season at Charlotte. The Owls, who eliminated Memphis on their way to the Final Four last season, are widely expected to be the Tigers’ top threat and—more importantly—best resume-building opportunity in AAC play after joining the league last summer. But they could simply become yet another stepping stone in Memphis’ quest to win a conference title if they keep underperforming, which doesn’t bode well for the Tigers’ hopes at getting a high seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Penny Hardaway knew his team wouldn’t have many chances at high-quality wins this year given the AAC’s current state. So he manufactured those opportunities by scheduling as many big-time opponents as possible for Memphis’ non-conference slate. The Tigers flourished in this daunting stretch, setting themselves up for what could be a historic season for the program. But Memphis (No. 15 in the AP Top 25) also needs the teams it’s played to hold up their end of the bargain, and they have oftentimes failed to do so as of late.

The good news, however, is the Tigers (12-2) will get their first of few quality matchups in conference play when they meet SMU (10-4) inside FedExForum Sunday (4 p.m., ESPN). Memphis is a 7.5-point favorite, and leads the all-time series with the Mustangs 18-14.

Here’s what to expect in the Tigers’ Quad 2 opportunity.

Life without Caleb Mills begins

It was indeed a scary sight inside the Donald W. Reynolds Center Thursday night.

Mills, with Memphis leading Tulsa 42-33 with 2:19 left in the first half, slipped and fell to the floor while dribbling along the Golden Hurricane baseline. The 6-foot-5 guard immediately grabbed at his right knee, and couldn’t put any weight on it as he was helped off the floor in front of a dead-silent crowd.

The injury left the Tigers so distraught to the point where point guard Jahvon Quinerly covered his face with both hands. Hardaway also looked quite frustrated as the Florida State transfer exited the contest.

“It’s not good…He didn’t slip. [The knee] just gave out,” Hardaway said postgame. “He was out there on the table just crying his eyes out.”

Mills watched the second half against Tulsa from the bench with his right knee in a brace as Memphis beat the Golden Hurricane 78-75. There’s been no official announcement regarding his status, but it’s largely assumed that his season is over. He averaged 7.9 points and 3.1 rebounds per game on 38.6% shooting in 14 games this year. Expect Jayden Hardaway, Ashton Hardaway, Carl Cherenfant and others to fill Mills’ role in the rotation.

Nae’Qwan Tomlin is making his case to start.

Tomlin was always going to make a major impact for Memphis sooner rather than later.

Still, doing so to the degree he did at Tulsa—his third game with the Tigers—is quite impressive. The 6-foot-10 center was all over the stat sheet in the first half, finishing the period with 8 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, a block and a steal in just nine minutes of action. Tomlin encapsulated his impactful start to the contest with a fastbreak slam that gave Memphis a 42-33 lead with 3:44 left until halftime.

Oh my, @Nae_Ratty 😤 pic.twitter.com/ecETujoVap

— Memphis Basketball (@Memphis_MBB) January 5, 2024

Tomlin scored 9 more points in the second half while shooting 50% from the field, and finished the game with 17 points and 7 rebounds on a 7-for-12 clip. The Kansas State transfer is now averaging 13.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game while shooting 46.7% from the field this season. Malcolm Dandridge has played well as Memphis’ starting center since Jordan Brown’s departure last month, but Tomlin will likely join the team’s opening lineup sooner rather than later.

Even if he doesn’t start against SMU, another standout performance could put the sealer on it.

What SMU brings to the table

The Mustangs, who handled Charlotte to open AAC play Tuesday, are set to be the Tigers’ biggest challenge since before Christmas. Rob Lanier’s team played valiantly against power-conference opponents in its non-conference schedule, and even beat the likes of West Virginia and Florida State by double digits. It also had competitive outings against Texas A&M and Wisconsin. Computers are quite high on SMU, with KenPom and the NCAA NET Rankings ranking it No. 48 and No. 39 respectively.

Zhuric Phelps is not only the Mustangs’ feature piece, but also one of the AAC’s best players. The 6-foot-5 guard is averaging 14.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game on 38.9% shooting this season. He also collects 1.9 steals per contest and is shooting a career-high 72.6% from the free throw line. Phelps, however, is down to 22.8% from 3-point range after shooting 30.9% from deep last year. The 21-year-old junior scored 20 and 10 points respectively in SMU’s two losses to Memphis in 2023.

One of the reasons the Mustangs are better this year is because of Phelps’ new backcourt mate, Chuck Harris. The Butler transfer is currently putting up 13.2 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 46.1% from the field and 42.6% from 3-point range, which are all career highs for the 6-foot-4 guard. Harris compiled 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists in SMU’s 68-57 win at Florida State on Dec. 16.

Other players to watch out for are 6-foot-8 forward Samuell Williamson (8.7 points and 6.6 rebounds per game), 6-foot-9 forward Keon Ambrose-Hylton (8.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game), 6-foot-8 forward Tyreek Smith (7.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and and 1.6 blocks per game), 6-foot-3 guard B.J. Edwards (4.3 points, 3.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game) and 6-foot-2 guard Jalen Smith (5.1 points per game and 38.6% from 3-point range).

SMU averages 76 points offensively while shooting 46.5% from the field and 35.6% from the 3-point line, but it also racks up 12.1 turnovers per game. Defensively, it allows just 62 points per contest and forces an average of 13.1 turnovers while collecting 8.3 steals and 5 blocks. The Mustangs are No. 78 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 in defensive efficiency.

The Prediction

Memphis guts it out to win its eighth game in a row.

SMU has beaten quality teams this year and will prove to be a formidable challenge for the Tigers. But FedExForum is easily the toughest environment the Mustangs will have faced so far. Memphis’ high-paced, high-scoring offense should also prove difficult to handle for an SMU team that typically likes to keep the score down.

Expect the Tigers to prevail over Lanier’s club in a fierce battle.