What to expect in No. 16 Memphis’ NCAA Tournament Round of 64 matchup with Colorado State, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball is set for its first NCAA Tournament game in two years.

The No. 5 seed Tigers (29-5, 16-2 AAC) head to Seattle to meet No. 12 seed Colorado State (25-9, 16-4 MW) in Friday’s Round of 64 matchup at Climate Pledge Arena (1 p.m., TBS). The winner faces either 4-seeded Maryland or 13-seeded Grand Canyon in the Round of 32 Sunday.

Penny Hardaway’s club—residing in the West Region—also sits below No. 1 Florida, No. 2 St. John’s and No. 3 Texas Tech. Other teams on the Tigers’ side of the bracket include No. 6 Missouri, No. 7 Kansas, No. 8 UConn, No. 9 Oklahoma, No. 10 Arkansas, No. 11 Drake, No. 14 UNC Wilmington, No. 15 Omaha and No. 16 Norfolk State.

Memphis, which hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2009, earned its favorable seeding despite constant worry that its dwindling computer numbers and upending Quad 3 losses (vs. Arkansas State and at Temple) would drag it down to the dreaded 8-9 line. Many predicted that the Tigers’ sub-45 ratings in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom and Bart Torvik would undermine their 11 combined Quad 1 and 2 wins and their American Athletic Conference (AAC) regular-season and Tournament championships.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee proved otherwise, though, allowing Memphis to finally leave the advanced metrics in its rearview mirror. All it must do now is what it’s done all season—win by any means necessary.

Perhaps it’ll make some history along the way too.

“It’s down to real basketball now,” Hardaway told reporters Tuesday. “You just gotta go out there and lay it all out on the line. We’ve watched this tournament for years. It’s a beautiful tournament. It’s the best tournament in the world—over any NBA Finals or anything. The NCAA Tournament is it.”

Here’s what to expect when the Tigers take on the Rams.

Will Tyrese Hunter or Dante Harris play?

The injury bug is hitting Memphis at the worst time.

Backup point guard Dante Harris suffered a high-ankle sprain during Memphis’ victory at UTSA earlier this month, while starter Tyrese Hunter injured his left foot during last Saturday’s American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament semifinals in Fort Worth, Texas.

Hunter (13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.5 steals per game) spent all of Sunday’s tournament final against UAB, which Memphis won 84-72, on the bench with crutches and a walking boot—unable to put any weight on the extremity. Harris (2.4 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.1 steals) also sat out the contest, but notably didn’t sport a walking boot for the first time since his injury occurred.

Hardaway told reporters Tuesday that he’s skeptical if either one will play against CSU. Hunter is officially considered questionable for Friday, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein.

“Dante is progressing. Tyrese is coming along slower,” Hardaway said. “Don’t know about Friday—if [either guy] is gonna be able to play. But Dante is ahead of Tyrese on coming back.”

Third-stringer Baraka Okojie will likely make his second consecutive start if both Hunter and Harris are unavailable. The 6-foot-3 guard tallied 5 points, 4 assists and 2 steals vs. UAB. He also committed 4 turnovers.

Which Colby Rogers will show up?

Rogers’ inconsistency popped again last weekend.

The 6-foot-3 guard totaled 7 points on 3-of-15 combined shooting in Memphis’ first two AAC Tournament games against Wichita State and Tulane. He shot just 1-of-9 from 3-point range throughout both contests.

Rogers flipped the switch against UAB, however, recording 15 points, 3 rebounds and 2 steals while shooting 5-for-12 from the field (3-of-6 at the 3-point line).

Memphis’ offense is simply at a different level whenever Rogers plays well. The Tigers average 82.6 points in games where he scores double figures. They’re also 15-2 in those outings. On the flip side, they average 77.6 points and are 14-3 in games where he doesn’t.

Rogers averaged 16.3 points on 51.2% 3-point shooting in Memphis’ six Quad 1 victories this season. That includes 19 points (3-of-6 on 3-pointers) against UConn, 22 points (4-for-7 on 3-pointers) at Clemson and 28 points (6-of-9 on 3-pointers) against Ole Miss.

Reasons like those are why Hardaway considers Rogers—outside of consensus All-American PJ Haggerty and AAC Newcomer of the Year Dain Dainja—Memphis’ most important player in March Madness.

“We need [Rogers’] scoring. We need him to be a guy,” Hardaway said.

What Colorado State brings to the table

Niko Medved’s Rams—winners of 10 in a row—punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning the Mountain West Tournament last weekend.

Bart Torvik ranks CSU as the nation’s No. 8 team since its hot streak began on Feb. 15. It also slots the Rams at No. 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 8 in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span. All three of Colorado State’s Quad 1 wins (at Boise State, vs. Utah State and vs. Boise State) occurred within its last four games too.

“[They’re] arguably the hottest team on the West Coast—over Arizona, over Gonzaga, just the entire West Coast,” Hardaway said. “They’ve kind of hit their stride on where they need to be going into March, and that’s where you wanna be.”

Nique Clifford is the Rams’ cornerstone piece. The 6-foot-6 guard averages 19 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.2 steals (all team-highs) while shooting 50.7% overall and 39.8% from 3-point range. Clifford boasts 15 double-doubles this year (No. 13 in Division I) and has scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games. He dropped a career-high 36 points (13-of-18 shooting) at Boise State earlier this month.

Jalen Lake is another scoring threat for Colorado State. The 6-foot-4 guard puts up 11.1 points. 2.8 rebounds and a couple assists per game while shooting 41.8% from the field and 34.2% at the 3-point line. Lake has spent his entire college career with the Rams.

Kyan Evans is CSU’s best playmaker besides Clifford. The 6-foot-2 guard averages 10.2 points, 3.1 assists and 2.9 rebounds while shooting 46.4% on field goals and 43.1% from beyond the arc. Evans has recorded 4 or more assists 13 times this season.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-8 forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (9 points and 4.3 rebounds), 6-foot-7 forward Rashaan Mbemba (7.2 points and 3.6 rebounds) and 6-foot-7 guard Ethan Morton (3.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists). No Ram who averages at least 14 minutes per game stands above 6-foot-8.

The Prediction

Memphis advances to the Round of 32.

The 6-foot-9 Dainja (14.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game) should feast on Colorado State’s small frontcourt. The Rams (68.4 possessions per game, No. 274 in Division I) will also likely have trouble containing the fast-paced Tigers (73.8 possessions, No. 26 in Division I).

Expect Hardaway’s club to overcome its injuries a second time.