What to expect in No. 21 Memphis’ AAC opener at Florida Atlantic, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball usually acted as the hunter throughout its daunting non-conference schedule, but its most dangerous game truly begins here.

The No. 21 Tigers (10-3) open American Athletic Conference (AAC) play at Florida Atlantic (7-6) on Thursday (6 p.m., ESPN2).

This year’s conference slate provides Memphis four projected Quad 2 opportunities in 18 games. Three of them (at FAU, vs. North Texas and at Temple) are in the Tigers’ next four outings. All other AAC games are projected Quad 3 or 4 opportunities.

The good news for Memphis is it already leads the country with eight wins in Quads 1 and 2, putting it in position for a possible top-5 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently projects the Tigers to be a No. 5 seed come March, in fact.

But coach Penny Hardaway feels like his team’s national perception isn’t reflective of one that has more quality victories than any other in Division I.

“We haven’t gotten that respect around the nation. We’re the only team with that many Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, but you wouldn’t think so because we lost to Arkansas State. That hurt us. We have a better resume than 99% of the [Associated Press] Top 25, and we’re not ranked high,” Hardaway said during his weekly radio show Monday. “To me, it’s just a hate for Memphis, man. We gotta be the best team in March and April. It’s not even about who’s the best team [right now].”

One way Memphis can earn more respect is taking care of business in its AAC schedule—something it hasn’t consistently done in Hardaway’s first six seasons. The Tigers went 11-7 in conference play and finished No. 5 in the league last year in route to missing the NCAA Tournament.

A good showing at FAU, however, might indicate that Hardaway’s seventh campaign is the charm.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ first meeting with the Owls this year.

3-point barrage incoming?

Memphis—the nation’s No. 11 perimeter shooting percentage team—shot under 30% from 3-point range against Virginia and Mississippi State.

That changed last Saturday against No. 24 Ole Miss, when Memphis shot 7-of-19 from deep. But Colby Rogers, who led all scorers with 28 points, sank six of those. PJ Haggerty hit the other. So Memphis, which once boasted the country’s best 3-point shooting clip, may not fully have its groove back.

Florida Atlantic is currently the third-worst perimeter defense in college basketball, though, giving Memphis the perfect chance to reignite its fire from beyond the arc.

Memphis’ big men are finally settling in.

It took a while for Dain Dainja and Moussa Cisse to play well simultaneously, but Memphis finally made it happen against the Rebels.

Cisse, a 6-foot-11 center, recorded his first double-double in two seasons with 13 points, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks and a steal. The 6-foot-9 Dainja compiled 16 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal despite committing 4 personal fouls.

Hardaway’s spent as much time as possible with the two big men in recent practices, so he’s particularly elated by their latest outings.

“Myself and Coach [Mike] Davis have been taking on the task of getting Moussa and Dain on one end while the guards are on the other. We’re just working extremely hard to get them to understand what we need from them,” Hardaway said. “They come in ready to work, asking questions. And in these last few games, it’s starting to get better and better every game.

“I made a conscious effort to make them roommates going to Clemson, and they’re roommates now every time. They’ve gotten way closer because we’re working with them in the gym, but then not to just leave the gym and go your own way. You have to go to the same room and talk about basketball.”

Will Dante Harris see more action?

The 6-foot midseason transfer played just seven minutes in his debut against Ole Miss.

Harris, who began practicing with Memphis last week, averaged 10 points, 3.6 assists, 3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in his two seasons at Georgetown (2020-22). But his numbers took a massive dip during his lone campaign at Virginia last year, largely due to an ankle injury that cost him 10 games.

Harris obviously hasn’t been with the Tigers for long, but Hardaway already can’t say enough about his positive impact off the court. Thursday’s game is a potential spot to expand his role on it.

“What he brings to the table is leadership—right away, walking through the door,” Hardaway said. “He’s a defensive-minded young man, and he’s all about [the] team. His energy is gonna help us tremendously.”

What Florida Atlantic brings to the table

John Jakus’ club is one positive in a mostly atrocious AAC despite losing former head coach Dusty May to Michigan and Johnell Davis (Arkansas), Vladislav Goldin (Michigan), Alijah Martin (Florida), Nick Boyd (San Diego State) and other players to the transfer portal.

Florida Atlantic is No. 89 in KenPom, No. 91 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings and No. 100 in Bart Torvik with a Quad 2 win over Liberty. KenPom also slots the Owls at No. 46 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 178 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Florida State transfer Baba Miller does it all for FAU. The 6-foot-11 forward averages 11 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.1 steals while shooting 51% overall and 39.5% on 3-pointers. Miller has notched three double-doubles this season.

Eastern Kentucky transfer Leland Walker is the Owls’ new point guard. The 6-foot-1 junior puts up 10.8 points, 4.8 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game on 43.2% shooting. Walker compiled a season-high 12 assists at Florida International on Dec. 4.

Louisville transfer Kaleb Glenn is FAU’s top bucket-getter. The 6-foot-7 forward averages 13.3 points and 4.1 rebounds while shooting 56.9% on field goals and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Glenn scored a career-high 27 points during the Owls’ loss to Charleston on Nov. 15.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-7 forward Tre Carroll (11.5 points and 4.2 rebounds), 7-foot center Matas Vokietaitis (9.8 points and 5.8 rebounds), 6-foot-2 guard KyKy Tandy (9.1 points on 38.7% 3-point shooting), 6-foot-5 guard Ken Evans Jr. (8.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.4 steals) and 6-foot-1 guard Niccolo Moretti (8.1 points, 3.9 assists and 2.3 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis wins a high-scoring affair.

Baldwin Arena should still be among the toughest environments Memphis faces in AAC play, and the Owls have solid talent after getting decimated by May’s departure.

But FAU’s putrid 3-point defense is a glaring weakness that Tyrese Hunter (45.2% on 3-pointers), Haggerty (40.5%) and Rogers (40.3%) surely exploit.

Expect a comfortable Tigers victory.