What to expect in No. 22 Memphis’ rematch with Florida Atlantic, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball finally gets its chance to bounce back from last week’s loss at Wichita State.

The No. 22 Tigers (21-5, 11-2 AAC) host Florida Atlantic (15-11, 8-5 AAC) inside FedExForum on Sunday (1 p.m., ESPN2). This is the two schools’ first meeting since Memphis squashed FAU in last month’s American Athletic Conference (AAC) opener.

Penny Hardaway’s club has mostly rolled through the porous league (No. 11 in the NET) since then, as it controls first place by a game and a half. But the Tigers’ conference victories, while plentiful, are usually more dicey than they should be.

Memphis owns an average victory margin of 11.4 points in AAC play. Six of its 11 conference wins have been single-digit finals. One of its two losses (at Temple on Jan. 16), meanwhile, added a second Quad 3 dumbbell to its resume.

Predictive metrics aren’t receptive to Memphis’ bend-but-don’t-break approach. The Tigers are No. 47 in KenPom, No. 48 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) and No. 56 in Bart Torvik.

That’s largely why Memphis, despite boasting six Quad 1 wins (No. 12 in Division I) and 10 combined victories in Quads 1 and 2, won’t get a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A No. 5 seed is probably wishful thinking too, especially after last Sunday’s Quad 2 defeat against the Shockers.

Hardaway, though disappointed, is unsurprised.

“It’s expected,” he said Friday. “When you have the amount of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins that we have, that’s supposed to mean something. But I think margin of victory is coming into play in a lot of this. So, I really don’t know. A win just isn’t a win anymore.”

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ second bout with Florida Atlantic.

Dain Dainja calls coming to Memphis ‘one of the best decisions of my life.’

The 6-foot-9 center played just 10 minutes per game at Illinois a year ago, but is now enjoying the best season of his college career at Memphis.

A smooth, prolific post scorer, Dainja averages 12.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and a block on 59.5% shooting. He’s already recorded three double-doubles as a Tiger after compiling two in his first three collegiate campaigns, and has upped his scoring average to 15.5 points since becoming a permanent starter seven games ago.

Dainja, a 4-star high school recruit, always knew he could be more than just the role player he was at Illinois and Baylor. All he needed was the right coach to capitalize on his untapped potential.

He and Hardaway are a seamless fit in that regard.

“Coming here was one of the best decisions of my life,” Dainja said. “I knew Penny was gonna make me better in just how I’ve been wanting to play. I knew he would let me have the freedom to do that, and just get me better in ways I wanted to.”

The Tigers are healthy after a week off.

Memphis is both rested and recuperated after a week off between outings.

Hardaway told reporters Friday that Tyrese Hunter, whose season-long knee injury withheld him from a home game against Temple earlier this month, fully participated in practice this week—a rare occurrence thanks to his ailment. Leading scorer PJ Haggerty is also well despite nursing a minor toe issue.

The rest of the team should be good to go on Sunday too.

What happened last time?

Florida Atlantic didn’t have a chance from the start.

Memphis pounced on the Owls early with a 9-0 run in the first two minutes and 31 seconds. The Tigers, who secured the game’s first 10 rebounds, then extended that advantage to 17-4 at the 14:57 mark in the first half and hardly looked back despite a brief FAU run.

Hunter finished with a game-high 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists while shooting 8-for-14 from the field. Haggerty scored 19 points in 31 minutes.

Dainja couldn’t find his rhythm at first, but quickly exploded after committing his fourth foul early in the second half. He scored all 16 of his points afterwards, and also totaled 5 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in 21 minutes.

Memphis shot 56% from both the floor and 3-point range, scored 42 paint points and led wire-to-wire to secure a 90-62 demolition over John Jakus’ club, which shot 32% overall and 16% at the 3-point line.

Florida Atlantic is 8-4 since losing to the Tigers, including a five-game winning streak that Wichita State broke on Thursday. Bart Torvik ranks the Owls No. 101 overall, No. 66 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 191 in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span.

Baba Miller (10.7 points, 7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks), Kaleb Glenn (12.9 points and 4.8 rebounds) and Tre Carroll (12.2 points and 5.3 rebounds) still lead Florida Atlantic in scoring. Leland Walker (9 points and 4.2 assists) remains FAU’s top playmaker.

The Prediction

Memphis completes the season sweep.

FAU likely puts up a better fight this time, but is still no match for a ticked off Tigers team. Plus, Memphis should dissect the Owls’ soft 3-point defense (No. 354 in Division I) once again.

Expect Hardaway’s team to protect home court.