What to expect in No. 23 Memphis’ top-25 matchup against No. 22 Virginia, plus a game prediction.

Memphis basketball throttled Missouri on Nov. 10—in Columbia without its head coach Penny Hardaway, who was serving a three-game suspension at the time. That wasn’t enough.

It then went 2-1 in the Battle 4 Atlantis later that month with wins over Michigan and Arkansas (ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25 before tip-off). Still not enough.

Afterwards, the Tigers won at both VCU and Texas A&M (ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 before tip-off) earlier this month—meaning Memphis then owned three victories over top-55 KenPom opponents in nine games. Even then, it wasn’t enough.

But Memphis finally silenced its doubters Saturday by defeating No. 18 Clemson 79-77 inside FedExForum, proving once and for all it deserves to be slotted amongst the best in college basketball this season. AP voters finally obliged to this reality, ranking Hardaway’s team No. 23 in Monday’s poll.

“Out of any team in the country, I feel like we’ve really had to earn the right to be in [the top 25],” Hardaway said postgame.

Being a ranked team, however, could end up being a double-edged sword for the Tigers. On one hand, having a number next to a team’s name instantly gives said team an uptick in national exposure. It provides legitimacy and integrity to a program, and ultimately sets it up for great success as the season goes on.

On another hand, Memphis now has a target on its back to go with the number next to its name. The Tigers will make the transition from the hunters to the hunted. Many other teams will no longer view them as an underdog, but rather as a team to beat.

No. 23 Memphis (8-2) has already shown it deserves to be ranked. But it must also show it deserves to stay ranked. Luckily, the Tigers have a great opportunity to begin doing so by hosting No. 22 Virginia (9-1) inside FedExForum Tuesday night (6 p.m., ESPN2).

Memphis—which lost its lone matchup with Virginia in the 2014 NCAA Tournament—is a 2.5-point favorite over the Cavaliers. And speaking of 2014, this is—ironically enough—the first top-25 matchup FedExForum will have hosted since that season.

Here’s what to expect in tonight’s clash between two early-season heavyweights.

How long can David Jones and Jahvon Quinerly keep this up?

Jones and Quinerly are rapidly becoming one of college basketball’s most dangerous backcourt duos.

Jones, a 6-foot-6 transfer from St. John’s, leads the Tigers in both scoring and rebounding with averages of 20.3 points and 6.5 boards per game. The 22-year-old also puts up a team-high in steals per game with 2.3 while shooting 45% from the field.

Quinerly, a 6-foot-1 transfer from Alabama, is Memphis’ primary ball handler. The fifth-year senior averages 13.7 points and a team-high 4.9 assists per contest. The 25-year-old also shoots a 45.4% clip and puts up a steal per game.

Both of them continued their stardom against Clemson. Jones again led the way with 22 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists. Quinerly, meanwhile, delivered with 17 points, 6 assists and 3 steals.

The Tigers fare quite well against the low-scoring, slow-paced Cavaliers if their two premier guards can stay hot.

The wait for Nae’Qwan Tomlin will probably continue.

The 6-foot-10 transfer from Kansas State committed to Memphis early last week.

Tomlin comes off a productive year in Jerome Tang’s program last season. The 23-year-old averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game for the Wildcats while shooting 50% from the field in 2022-23. He was also a key contributor in Kansas State’s run to the Elite Eight, averaging 12.5 points, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks in last season’s NCAA Tournament. Tomlin started all 36 games for the Wildcats last year.

He will be immediately eligible to play for the Tigers this season since he never suited up for the Wildcats in 2023-24 prior to his controversial dismissal from the KSU program. But the former junior college star still has to take a couple steps before joining Memphis.

He must officially sign with the program, and then enroll into the university. Easy enough, right?

Can Memphis’ 3-point shooting improve?

Perimeter shooting was supposed to be one of Memphis’ biggest strengths heading into the season.

But it’s actually turned out to be one of Memphis’ Achilles heels thus far. The Tigers are collectively shooting just 34% from deep to start the season.

Transfer wing Jaykwon Walton has fallen from a 40% clip last season with Wichita State to just a 25% clip this season. Walton—9.2 points and 4 rebounds per game—is in quite the slump overall after making just 9 of his 40 field goal attempts in his last 5 games.

Quinerly is shooting 30% from 3-point range. Guard Caleb Mills fell from 40% on the season to 33.3% after shooting 0-of-4 from behind the arc against Clemson. Jayden Hardaway regressed from being a 33% 3-point shooter last year to only an 18% one this year.

Forward Nick Jourdain leads the Tigers in perimeter shooting with a 54.5% clip, but that may or may not actually be sustainable. No one else on the team even shoots 40%.

Similarly, Memphis has been finding ways to beat good teams without consistent shooting, including a 15% clip from 3-point range in its win over Clemson. But that also may or may not be sustainable.

”We didn’t make open shots [against Clemson],” Quinerly said Saturday. “I feel like a lot of our 3s were good shots against their zone…but we were able to not let that dictate how hard we played on the defensive end.”

Three-point shooting may not have dictated the Clemson game, but it could end up being a factor in nearly any other matchup this season. And can the Tigers win a true 3-point shootout right now? Probably not, and that can definitely be problematic in the future.

What Virginia brings to the table

Tony Bennett’s group has always played at a snail’s pace, and that hasn’t changed this season.

Virginia, which owns a win versus Texas A&M this season, ranks No. 362—or last in the country—in offensive possessions per contest. The Cavaliers normally have the ball just 63 times in a game, and limit their opponents to an average of 53 points.

Simply put, if Memphis wants to win this game, it cannot fall into Virginia’s trap of slow-paced, Bennett-style ball. In fact, the Tigers would ideally like to make Virginia the uncomfortable team for once by speeding it up and taking the Cavaliers out of their rhythm.

Bennett’s team is led by senior Reece Beekman. The 6-foot-3 guard averages 12.5 points, 5.7 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game while shooting 45.7% from the field. A fantastic perimeter defender, Beekman also racks up an average of 2.7 steals in each contest.

Sophomore guards Issac McKneely and Ryan Dunn are also major contributors. The 6-foot-4 McKneely averages 12.3 points per outing while shooting 45.8% on his field goals attempts and 55% from beyond the arc. Dunn, who stands at 6-foot-8, leads the team in rebounding with 6.1 boards per game. The Freeport, N.Y. native also averages 9 points, 2.3 steals and 2.5 blocks while shooting 54.4% from the field.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-6 guard Andrew Rodhe (6.2 points and 3.4 assists per game), 6-foot-9 forward Jacob Groves (7.8 points per game), 6-foot-5 guard Leon Bond III (7.2 points and 4 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-11 forward Blake Buchanan (5 points per game).

Virginia collectively scores 67 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. The Cavaliers also generate 9 steals and 6 blocks per game while averaging just 8 turnovers.

The Prediction

Memphis protects its home court gets another top-25 win.

Virginia definitely presents a different challenge than what Clemson did for Memphis. The Cavaliers’ unorthodox style is more than capable of giving Memphis fits. But the Tigers’ advantages in scoring, speed, athleticism, size and shot creation should be enough to lift them to victory.

As long has Hardaway’s team prevents itself from playing into Virginia’s hands, it’ll likely prevail.