What to expect when Memphis basketball hosts Florida Atlantic, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball has a chance to get some long-awaited payback Sunday afternoon.

The Tigers (19-8, 8-6 AAC) will finally get another crack at Florida Atlantic, the team that eliminated them from last year’s NCAA Tournament. But this time, the two squads will face off as conference foes inside FedExForum (1 p.m., ESPN). Those aren’t the only things that have changed since last March, though.

Most of Penny Hardaway’s current roster wasn’t around for last season’s infamous showdown. In fact, the only remaining Tiger from 2023 who’ll actually play against FAU (21-6, 11-3 AAC) is Jayden Hardaway. Everyone else is either a new transfer or a true freshman in their first season with Memphis, though Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Kansas State also lost to Florida Atlantic in last year’s Elite Eight.

Dusty May’s club, meanwhile, is nearly unchanged. The likes of Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Nick Boyd, Vladislav Goldin and others still lead the charge for the Owls. What has changed, however, is their on-court play. FAU, which reached the Final Four last season, has been a shell of itself throughout 2023-24. It owns a Quad 4 loss at Florida Gulf Coast, a Quad 3 loss to Bryant and Quad 2 losses at Charlotte, UAB and South Florida. But the Owls—ranked No. 33 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings—are still a projected at-large team for this year’s March Madness.

The same can’t be said for Memphis, which was once 15-2 and ranked No. 10 in the Associated Press (AP) Top 25. The Tigers have since lost six of their last 10 games, including a loss in Quad 3 and Quad 4, and are now down to No. 81 in KenPom and No. 82 in the NET. Because of this, they likely have to win next month’s American Athletic Conference (AAC) tournament in Fort Worth, Texas to achieve a third consecutive appearance in the Big Dance. They are coming off a resounding win over Charlotte on Wednesday, however, which saw them outscore the 49ers 36-17 in the second half.

“Obviously, we’re in a situation where we can’t do anything but go out, play hard and try to protect home court because of the situation we’ve put ourselves into. It just so happens to be [against] FAU,” Penny Hardaway said Friday. “The energy is just knowing that we have to protect home court. But FAU ended our and Nae’Qwan’s seasons last year. So obviously, you’re not gonna look anywhere for any kind of energy.”

The sixth-year coach told reporters he expects David Jones, who injured his left eye Wednesday, to be available on Sunday. He also said Jayden Hardaway and Jordan Brown should be active after sitting out against Charlotte. Jayhlon Young also sat out versus the 49ers, but the elder Hardaway marked him as questionable.

One Tiger who definitely won’t play, however, is Malcolm Dandridge. The 6-foot-9 center is being held out of competition until further notice due to an internal investigation regarding his involvement in alleged academic fraud. Dandridge is Memphis’ only returnee from 2023 besides Jayden Hardaway.

Here’s what to expect when the Tigers host Florida Atlantic.

Penny Hardaway knows who FAU is now.

Florida Atlantic was a complete mystery to Hardaway heading into last year’s affair in the Round of 64.

He saw its three-loss record heading into the NCAA Tournament. He knew the Owls were a great team, but he didn’t know how or why they were great. After all, he merely had a few days to prepare for last season’s Conference USA champions.

This time, however, he had 11 months. And he thinks that could be the difference on Sunday.

“If you don’t know who they are, it really shocks you how well they play together…I know exactly who they are. They’re really d*** good…It gives me an easier gameplan because now I know exactly who’s who, and the guys just have to go out there and carry it out,” Hardaway said. “They’re the closest-knit team in the country to me…They don’t waiver from who they are. They play hard and they’re tough. So if you’re gonna beat them, you gotta bring your hard hat.”

Will Joe Cooper’s impact continue?

Cooper, a walk-on junior who’s also a native Memphian, has provided a spark in the U of M’s last two outings.

He saw his first action of the season last Sunday at SMU, and recorded 2 assists and 2 steals in 10 second-half minutes. Cooper continued his impressive play Wednesday with 3 points and 3 rebounds in minutes. and seemingly solidified his place in the Tigers’ rotation moving forward.

It’s a newfound opportunity for the former junior college star, who hasn’t played despite being eligible since January. A stepson of former Tiger Rodney Newsome, Cooper is taking his chance in stride and is already leading by example. And Hardaway thinks the 6-foot-1 guard is making his mark at the right time.

“I can’t say I don’t regret not giving him an opportunity [earlier], [but] I think he was ready for his moment…Once he made his mind up that he was gonna lock in, I had a long talk with him probably about three weeks ago and said, ‘Hey, I’m gonna start putting you in the games. Get locked in,’ because I know his talent,” Hardaway said. “He got more serious about it. Not that he wasn’t working out [before], it’s just you could see the shift change after I spoke to him. But looking back at it now, he could’ve helped us some for sure.”

What Florida Atlantic brings to the table

The Owls—now ranked No. 32 in KenPom—have won 10 of their last 12 games in AAC play. They also own neutral court victories over No. 4 Arizona and Texas A&M. FAU, which is No. 2 in the AAC, beat SMU 80-70 in its last outing on Thursday.

Davis, the AAC’s co-Preseason Player of the Year, is having the best statistical season of his collegiate career. The 6-foot-4 guard is averaging 18.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists while shooting 48.3% from the field and 45.5% from 3-point range. He also nabs 1.6 steals per game. Davis has scored at least 20 points 10 times this year, including a 35-point performance against Arizona. But he only managed 12 points and 5 rebounds in last year’s tournament game against Memphis.

Martin, the AAC’s other co-Preseason Player of the Year, is also having a productive campaign. The 6-foot-2 guard puts up 13.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and shoots 41.1% on his field goal attempts and 35.1% on his 3-point tries. He also averages a team-high 1.7 steals. Martin compiled 20 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal against SMU on Thursday. But like Davis, he struggled against the Tigers last year and mustered just 10 points and 4 rebounds.

Goldin is perhaps the best center in the AAC. The 7-foot-1 junior averages 14.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.5 blocks on 64.5% shooting. He’s been hot lately, having scored at least 20 points in three of his last four games. Goldin also had a productive outing last year versus Memphis with 6 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks.

Boyd is another dynamic scorer for FAU. The 6-foot-3 guard scores 10.1 points per game while shooting 41.1% from the field and 37.3% from 3-point range. He put up a season-high 21 points on 6-for-11 perimeter shooting in an 85-84 win at Tulane on Jan. 11. Boyd scored 8 points in last year’s victory over Memphis, including the game-winning layup with two seconds to spare.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-4 guard Brandon Weatherspoon (7.2 points and 3.3 rebounds per game), 6-foot guard Bryan Greenlee (6.3 points and 3 assists per game), 6-foot-3 guard Jalen Gaffney (43.5% 3-point shooting) and 6-foot-8 forward Giancarlo Rosado (5.8 points and 3.6 rebounds per game).

Florida Atlantic scores 83.3 points per game while shooting 48% from the field and 36.5% from 3-point range. It also averages 38.2 rebounds and 15.4 assists, and turns the ball over just 10.9 times per contest. FAU is the No. 16 scoring offense in Division I. Defensively, it racks up 12.1 forced turnovers, 7.6 steals and 2.7 blocks. The Owls are ranked No. 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 101 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

The Prediction

Memphis gets its revenge on Florida Atlantic.

Though both teams are extremely volatile, the Tigers have a clear advantage in size, speed and athleticism in this matchup. Even without Dandridge, their height and length should give them a clear advantage on the boards and in the paint. The Owls’ subpar defense should also allow Memphis to keep up with FAU’s offense.

Expect a high octane battle that ultimately leans towards the home team.