What to expect when Memphis basketball hosts No. 16 Ole Miss, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball hopes to avoid its third home loss in a row, which hasn’t happened to the program since Tubby Smith’s second and final season as its head coach (2017-18).

The Tigers (9-3) host No. 16 Ole Miss (11-1) inside FedExForum on Saturday (1 p.m., ESPN2). Memphis is undefeated in true road games this year, and owns a 6-1 record in away or neutral environments. But it’s just 3-2 in its own building this year, including back-to-back defeats to Arkansas State and No. 19 Mississippi State by 13 points each.

Penny Hardaway’s club looked particularly flat in the latter affair against the Bulldogs last Saturday. The Tigers trailed by as many as 24 points, and never cut their deficit to less than 13 after halftime. But the seventh-year coach isn’t pressing the panic button.

“This one loss is not gonna define who we are, because it’s about the entire season. I’m smart enough to know now not to go crazy over one loss,” Hardaway said. “Next Saturday, we’re gonna be better.”

Memphis is 22-10 in 32 all-time meetings with Ole Miss, but is 6-9 vs. the Rebels since 1999-00. The Tigers lost to Chris Beard’s team 80-77 last season after blowing an 11-point lead in the second half.

Hardaway is 2-2 against Ole Miss in his career. Both of his wins occurred at FedExForum in 2019-20 and 2022-23.

Ole Miss is currently No. 31 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, making this a Quad 2 opportunity for the Tigers. A victory gives Memphis its eighth win in Quads 1 and 2 this year.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ final non-conference game.

Can Colby Rogers break his slump?

The 6-foot-3 guard isn’t playing like himself right now.

Rogers shot a combined 1-of-19 overall against Virginia and Mississippi State—Memphis’ last two opponents. That includes a 0-for-12 clip from 3-point range, where the Wichita State transfer is shooting 36.8% this season.

The mark stood at 44.6% prior to Rogers’ two bad performances. He finished with 3 and 2 points respectively in both games.

Memphis’ lead scorer PJ Haggerty (22.5 points per game) still gives Rogers his vote of confidence, though.

“Every player has slumps,” Haggerty said. “It’s not the end of the world when you’re going through a slump. But we still believe in him. At the end of the day, he’s our teammate [and] brother. So, we just gotta keep believing in him. He’ll bounce back.”

Will Memphis’ frontcourt/depth improve?

Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter scored 24 and 19 points respectively on 46% combined shooting against Mississippi State, but nothing else went right in Memphis’ last outing.

No other Tiger scored more than 7 points, and all Memphis players besides Haggerty and Hunter totaled a 6-for-25 clip from the field. Mississippi State also outrebounded Memphis 46-32, and outclassed the Tigers in both paint points (38-18) and bench points (41-15).

Hardaway’s frontcourt specifically disappeared in last week’s contest. Dain Dainja finished with just 6 points and 9 rebounds while also committing 6 turnovers. Nick Jourdain compiled 6 points and 5 rebounds on 1-for-6 shooting in 35 minutes, and Moussa Cisse didn’t score in 12 minutes.

Hunter, who’s won six NCAA Tournament games in his career, knows Memphis needs more from its supporting cast moving forward.

“We really ain’t got no excuse, honestly. I feel like they came out wanting it more than us. We just gotta be consistent with the energy that we give…just have that dog and the fight in us coming out [and] starting the game,” he said postgame. “I just told the guys in the huddle that we can’t come out hoping that they miss shots, hoping they don’t play hard and expecting everything just to fall our way. In my eyes, I kinda felt like we did, and we just gotta go out and take it.”

What Ole Miss brings to the table

Ole Miss is off to a hot start in Beard’s second season.

The Rebels own two Quad 1 victories, and are beating their opponents by an average of 18 points (No. 19 in Division I)—though they’ve won seven Quad 4 games thus far. Ole Miss is currently No. 30 in both Bart Torvik and KenPom, which also ranks the Rebels No. 24 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 47 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Virginia Tech transfer Sean Pedulla is Ole Miss’ leading scorer this year. The 6-foot-1 guard averages 14.8 points, 3.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 steals while shooting 45.2% on field goals and 42.3% on 3-pointers. Pedulla has scored at least 16 points in four of the Rebels’ last five games, and has recorded 4 or more steals four times.

Saint Peter’s transfer Jaylen “Juju” Murray is in his second season with Ole Miss. The 5-foot-11 guard puts up 13.3 points, 4.5 assists and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 48.2% from the field and 46.2% at the 3-point line. Murray finished with 28 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and a steal in the Rebels’ 96-85 win over BYU on Nov. 28. He also racked up 22 points, 9 dimes, 4 boards and 2 blocks against Memphis last season.

Memphis native Matthew Murrell is in his fifth year at Ole Miss. The 6-foot-4 guard racks up 12.3 points, 3 rebounds and 2.3 steals per contest on 45.3% shooting. A former 4-star high school recruit, Murrell has averaged 17.3 points in his three meetings with the Tigers. He notched 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and a block during last season’s matchup.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-6 guard Dre Davis (11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 1.0 steals), 6-foot-8 forward Jaemyn Brakefield (9.6 points, 5 rebounds and 2.3 assists) and 6-foot-9 forward Malik Dia (6.8 points and 5.3 rebounds). Memphis native Davon Barnes, a 6-foot-4 guard, has made five starts this year while averaging 6.9 points and 3.8 rebounds.

The Prediction

Memphis wins after pulling away in the second half.

Memphis and Ole Miss are both sub-200 rebounding teams, so the Rebels likely won’t present the challenges on the glass that Mississippi State did. The Tigers, who’ve played nine Quad 1 and 2 games, are also significantly more battle-tested than Ole Miss.

Those factors coupled with home-court advantage should be enough to give Hardaway and Co. another resume-boosting victory.

Expect Memphis to enter conference play with newfound momentum.