What to expect when Memphis basketball meets San Francisco, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball must leap over one last hurdle before next week’s Maui Invitational.

The Tigers (3-0) take on San Francisco (4-0) inside the Chase Center—home of the Golden State Warriors—Thursday (9 p.m., ESPNU). This is the first of four games Memphis will play in its eight-day road trip.

The other three are in the aforementioned Maui Invitational, which opens via a matchup with back-to-back national champion UConn next Monday. Penny Hardaway’s club also meets either Michigan State or Colorado next Tuesday before concluding the tournament against North Carolina, Auburn, Iowa State or Dayton next Wednesday.

Memphis won’t return to FedExForum until Dec. 4, when it hosts Louisiana Tech.

”It’s the toughest stretch of the year. Maybe the toughest in my coaching [career] here at Memphis,” Hardaway told reporters Tuesday. “We gotta get locked in and be ready to go to work on the road.”

Here’s what to expect when Memphis faces the Dons.

Memphis is red-hot from range.

Isn’t this quite the plot twist?

Memphis—which was consistently panned this offseason for its perceived shooting deficiencies—currently leads the country in 3-point percentage (49%).

The Tigers also shot a program-record 72% from beyond the arc in their 94-70 win over Ohio Friday.

Lead scorer PJ Haggerty (25.7 points per game), who went 4-for-5 from deep against the Bobcats, owns a 45.5% perimeter shooting mark. Tyrese Hunter (14.7 points) shoots 61.5% from 3-point range and also went 4-for-5 versus Ohio. Nick Jourdain (10 points) nailed both his 3-point attempts Friday night and has shot an astonishing 75% this season.

Meanwhile, Colby Rogers—a 40.9% perimeter shooter last season—is down to 35.7% (4.7 attempts per game) thus far. The 6-foot-3 guard still scores 11.7 points per game, though, making him the Tigers’ third-leading scorer.

This obviously comes in just a three-game sample size, but Hardaway seems confident it can continue moving forward.

“It’s hard to explain, because we work so hard on shooting. Most of our practice is working on shooting. After practice, the guys work on their own shooting. At night, they come back [and] work on their shooting,” he said Friday. “This is definitely a product of the hard work that we put in as a group and as individuals.”

Haggerty and Hunter keep shining despite lack of reps.

The Tigers’ star-studded, two-headed backcourt has lived up to its billing.

Haggerty, a 6-foot-3 sophomore, averages 5.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals on top of his tremendous scoring. Hunter, a 6-foot senior, notches 4.3 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per contest—the latter two being team-highs.

Haggerty and Hunter also led Memphis with 23 and 21 points respectively against Ohio, and their on-court production is even more impressive than normal considering they aren’t practicing right now.

Both have battled knee injuries since before Memphis’ win at UNLV earlier this month, according to Hardaway, causing both to miss practices in recent weeks. That status quo didn’t change this week either, though it has yet to affect Haggerty during games.

Hunter might be a different story.

”Maybe Tyrese is not as explosive as he wants to be,” Hardaway said. “Right now, I don’t see his athleticism being in there because once he plants and explodes, maybe that hurts his knee. But he’s able to play a floor game, where he can shoot jump shots and space the floor.”

Both are expected to play against San Francisco. Jourdain, who’s dealing with a hip injury, will also suit up.

What San Francisco brings to the table

Chris Gerlufsen’s team has been a nice surprise thus far.

The Dons, who own a win over Mountain West preseason favorite Boise State, are No. 54 in KenPom and No. 72 on barttorvik.com. Memphis, meanwhile, is No. 37 and 35 respectively in both metrics.

KenPom also ranks San Francisco No. 51 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Tyrone Riley IV leads USF with 19.5 points per game. The 6-foot-6 freshman also puts up 3.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals while shooting 64.4% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range (4.8 attempts). Riley has scored at least 26 points twice this year.

Former USC Trojan Malik Thomas is another crucial piece for the Dons. The 6-foot-5 senior averages 15.8 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2.8 steals on 47.6% shooting. Thomas finished with 22 points against Boise State on Nov. 9.

Marcus Williams is in his second season as San Francisco’s point guard. The 6-foot-2 senior racks up 13.5 points, 5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 51.4% overall and 58.8% from the 3-point line (4.3 attempts). Williams also slaughtered the Broncos with 20 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds.

Ndewedo Newbury—a London, England native—is San Francisco’s top frontcourt player. The 6-foot-7 forward notches 10 points, 5.3 rebounds. 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per contest on 48.4% shooting. Newbury recorded 14 points and 10 boards versus Boise State.

Other players to watch for are 7-foot center Carlton Linguard Jr. (6 points and 5 rebounds) and 6-foot-6 forward Jason Rivera-Torres (5.8 points and 4.5 rebounds). Linguard scored 10 points against Memphis with UTSA last year, and Rivera-Torres dropped 12 points on the Tigers with Vanderbilt.

The Prediction

Memphis escapes with a close victory.

This should be the Tigers’ toughest test to date.

San Francisco enters with a nice offensive attack—including a 34.7% clip from 3-point range as a team, which could prove useful against a Memphis squad currently allowing its opponents to shoot 35% from deep.

But the Tigers’ offense—ranked No. 41 in adjusted efficiency by KenPom—is ultimately a bit better down the stretch.

Expect Memphis to head to Maui undefeated.