What to expect when Memphis basketball plays Michigan State in Maui Invitational, plus a game prediction

The Tigers knocked off the back-to-back national champions Monday afternoon, but they barely have any time to celebrate.

Memphis (5-0) gets right back on the Lahaina Civic Center court against Michigan State (5-1) in the second round of the Maui Invitational Tuesday (5 p.m., ESPN). The winner of this game faces the winner of No. 4 Auburn vs. Dayton in the Maui Invitational championship game Wednesday (4 p.m., ESPN). The respective losers play each other in the third-place game later that night (8:30 p.m., ESPN2).

Penny Hardaway called Monday’s victory over No. 2 UConn the biggest in his coaching career, and his team has suddenly become the trendiest topic in college basketball in less than 24 hours. But the Tigers made it clear their blinders are staying on.

“We don’t care what anybody on the outside is saying. We trust the group of guys that we’ve
got, the coaching staff, the support staff, our players,” guard Tyrese Hunter said. “Just
establishing who we are. We’ve just got to keep working.”

Memphis owns a 2-1 record in three all-time matchups against the Spartans, including the Tigers’ infamous 92-74 victory in the 2008 NCAA Tournament that advanced them to the Elite Eight. The schools’ most recent meeting came in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, which Michigan State won 70-48.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ fourth standoff with MSU.

Hunter is in gear.

The 6-foot senior didn’t find his rhythm in Memphis’ October exhibitions or its first two regular season games, but he’s since scored at least 21 points in two of the Tigers’ last three outings.

His showing against UConn particularly stood out, as Hunter recorded a game-high 26 points on 70% 3-point shooting. He dropped 17 of those in the first 12 minutes of the second half on 4-for-5 perimeter shooting, including a deep 3-pointer that gave Memphis a 68-58 lead with 8:17 left in the period. Dan Hurley’s club called timeout a few seconds later, and cameras caught Hunter roaring, “I’m him! I’ve been him,” as he migrated to the Tigers’ bench.

“I played these guys last year in New York, and I know the type of intensity that they were going to bring for the game, so I knew what to expect,” the Texas transfer said. “But just being in that stretch and being in the flow, it felt good.”

Hunter left his mark on the Huskies—even though he didn’t score again after the timeout—and he’ll surely look to do so again vs. the Spartans.

Memphis’ physical brand is working.

The Tigers are initiating contact early and often this season.

They’re being rewarded for it too, having shot nearly 29 free throws per game thus far. Sophomore guard PJ Haggerty (22.4 points per contest), who finished second in the nation with 309 foul shots at Tulsa last season, has already sunk 42-of-50 free throw attempts in Memphis’ first five games.

Memphis found itself at the charity stripe a ton against UConn, especially in the first half. The Tigers drew 8 fouls in the first eight minutes and 16 seconds, and earned double-bonus status at the 5:39 mark in the opening period. They also attempted 14 foul shots compared to 3 for UConn before halftime.

Memphis ultimately shot 29-of-40 from the free throw line overall. Haggerty, who complied 22 points and 5 assists, drilled 11 of his 14 tries. Reserve wing PJ Carter made 6 free throws in overtime alone.

What Michigan State brings to the table

Tom Izzo’s Spartans have made 26 consecutive NCAA Tournaments, and will likely extend that streak to 27 this year.

Michigan State, which beat Colorado 72-56 on Monday, is No. 31 on Bart Torvik and No. 39 on KenPom. Memphis, for reference, is No. 33 and 30 respectively in both metrics. KenPom also ranks the Spartans No. 69 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Jaden Akins enters his fourth season with MSU. The 6-foot-4 guard leads the Spartans with 12.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game on 44.3% shooting. But he only scored 4 and 2 points respectively against the Buffaloes and No. 1 Kansas. He also hit just three shots combined in both games.

Omaha transfer Frankie Fidler is Izzo’s top frontcourt option. The 6-foot-7 forward averages 11.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, but he shoots a porous 30.4% from the field. Fidler recorded 9 points and 6 rebounds against Colorado, and 15 points and 8 boards vs. Kansas.

Other players to watch for are 6-foot-9 forward Jaxon Koehler (9.2 points and 7.8 rebounds), 6-foot-3 guard Jase Richardson (9.2 points on 50% 3-point shooting) and 6-foot-5 forward Coen Carr (7.7 points and 3 rebounds).

The Prediction

Memphis blasts Michigan State by double digits.

These two teams seem even on paper, but there’s one major separator here—perimeter shooting. The Tigers are currently 47.9% from 3-point range, which is good for second in the country. The Spartans, meanwhile, hit just 20% of their long-ball tries, which ranks 362nd (of 364). Memphis’ top three scorers (Haggerty, Hunter and Colby Rogers) all shoot at least 40.7% from deep as well.

Michigan State essentially needs a near-flawless defensive performance to win this one, and that’s hard to envision against a Tigers offense touted No. 28 in adjusted efficiency by KenPom.

Expect to see Memphis in the Maui Invitational title game.