What to expect when Memphis basketball plays Wichita State in the AAC Tournament, plus a game prediction

Memphis basketball’s 2023-24 campaign has been full of twists and turns.

It’s seen tremendous highs and horrifying lows. The Tigers started this season 15-2, ranked as high as No. 10 in the Associated Press (AP) Top 25 and with a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament practically guaranteed. But they then went just 7-7 in their last 14 regular season games—including a Quad 3 loss at Tulane on Jan. 21 and a Quad 4 loss vs. Rice on Jan. 31—and finished fifth place in the American Athletic Conference (AAC or the American).

Center Jordan Brown—last season’s Lou Henson Award winner—mysteriously left the team in early December after a disappointing start to his season, only to return in mid-January. Forward Nae’Qwan Tomlin joined the team in mid-December after being controversially dismissed by Kansas State. Guard Caleb Mills—the team’s best perimeter defender and vocal leader—was lost for the season during Jan. 4’s game at Tulsa after tearing his patella. And center Malcolm Dandridge—the team’s longest-tenured scholarship player—has been suspended from competition since late February due his alleged involvement in an academic scandal.

Head coach Penny Hardaway also alluded to possible locker room issues multiple times throughout the second half of the season, and even accused some players of quitting on the team after Memphis’ 106-79 loss at SMU on Feb. 18. But ironically enough, the Tigers started playing their best basketball of the year from that point on.

They won four of their last five regular season games by an average margin of 17.8 points, including a 78-74 victory over Florida Atlantic on Feb. 25. Their lone defeat in this stretch came at FAU last Saturday. Tomlin, David Jones and Jahvon Quinerly each averaged at least 16.4 points during this stretch. Jones and Quinerly were also named to the All-AAC First and Third Team respectively on Tuesday.

Memphis’ last-ditch efforts, however, weren’t enough to save its at-large hopes or get a double-bye in the AAC Tournament. This means it has to win four games in four days at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas to win the tourney and earn its third consecutive March Madness bid.

The No. 5 seed Tigers (22-9, 11-7 AAC) will face No. 12 seed Wichita State (14-18, 5-13 AAC) to begin their gauntlet Thursday afternoon (1:30 p.m., ESPNU). Memphis beat the Shockers twice in the regular season, but Paul Mills’ team has since found a groove. It’s won three of its last four games, including a 88-81 victory over Rice in the first round of the AAC Tournament Wednesday afternoon.

Here’s what to expect in Memphis’ third meeting with the Shockers.

Hardaway says the Tigers are mentally ready for AAC tourney play.

No team in AAC history has done what Memphis is tasked with doing this weekend, becoming the league’s first program to win the conference tournament without the double-bye to the quarterfinals.

Winning four games in four days is obviously a challenge physically. But it’s perhaps even more difficult from a mental standpoint, especially for a Memphis team marred with both effort and chemistry issues all season. It has no natural leader like Alex Lomax. No energy-plug like DeAndre Williams. And no pillar like Kendric Davis.

It does have the talent to pull off the unthinkable, however, and Hardaway thinks it’s gained the right mindset along the way.

“The guy’s understand now it’s do-or-die. It’s win or go home,” he said Monday. “They’re a great group. They love one another. There just hasn’t been a lot of talk about wanting to make the tournament [all season]. [But] now they’re like, ‘We gotta win four games to make it to the tournament and we gotta go do it.'”

Memphis’ bench must step up.

The Tigers’ started Saturday’s game at Florida Atlantic on a positive note, and controlled the Owls for most of the first half. But Hardaway’s starters appeared more winded than normal early on in the contest, so the sixth-year coach had to rely on his reserves to keep pace with the No. 16 scoring offense in college basketball.

It didn’t exactly go well, especially for Brown. The 6-foot-11 center played a near six-minute stretch after subbing in at the 9:12 mark, during which the Owls went on a 13-5 run to claim a 34-29 lead with 3:18 left in the opening period. Brown was held scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting with just 1 rebound throughout that span. Jayden Hardaway, Joe Cooper and Jayhlon Young each played at least four minutes in the half, but combined for just 5 points.

And though Brown and Cooper didn’t play in the second half, the damage was already down. Memphis couldn’t break FAU’s newfound rhythm, and lost the game 92-84 after allowing 51 points in the final period.

The Tigers’ bench simply has to be better if they want to win the AAC Tournament. Hardaway made sure to hammer that point home consistently during his chat with reporters on Monday night.

“We’re just challenging the bench way more than we have [before]. You need your bench to come in and sustain…I feel like those guys are very capable of keeping a lead and pushing the lead further,” he said. “The bench is so important because you’re not gonna play six guys in three days for 30-something minutes a game. It’s tough.”

What happened the last time Memphis played Wichita State?

The Tigers demolished the Shockers by 26 points on Jan. 14 in Wichita. But the rematch in Memphis was a completely different story.

The first half was a defensive battle on both ends of the floor, with both the Tigers and Shockers shooting 30% from the field. Memphis also made 33% of its 3-point tries in the opening period, and Wichita State was 27% from beyond the arc. But Hardaway’s team still trailed 30-24 at halftime.

The difference was turnovers. The Tigers gave the ball away nine times, while the Shockers only turned it over once. Mills’ team scored six points off Memphis’ giveaways, and never trailed in the game’s first 20 minutes. Jones and Jayden Hardaway combined for four turnovers, and five other players gave the ball up once.

The Tigers and Shockers kept going back and forth after the intermission, but the former hit a lull about midway through the second half.

Penny Hardaway’s team spiraled out of control with empty possessions and bad turnovers, which allowed Wichita State to extend its 4-point lead to a 13-point advantage with a 9-0 run in just over three minutes. Mills’ club stretched the score to 54-40 with 7:55 on the clock. And that’s when Memphis—Jones to be specific—began storming back.

The St. John’s transfer started the Tigers’ comeback with two made free throws. After Memphis cut Wichita’s lead to 58-49, Jones went on a 9-0 run by hitting back-to-back 3-pointers followed by an old-fashioned 3-point play to tie the game with 2:23 left. Quinerly, who missed his first 12 shots, nailed a 3-pointer to give Memphis a 63-62 lead with 44 seconds left.

But a Wichita State free throw knotted the score at 63 apiece with 16 seconds to play, and Memphis had the ball. Quinerly had his shining moments against Tulsa and SMU in early January, and Jones decided it was his turn there. The 6-foot-6 wing nailed a pullup jumper in the final two seconds, which gave the Tigers a 65-63 victory.

Memphis shot 38% from the field and 42% from 3-point range. It also outrebounded Wichita State 45-33, and racked up 17 offensive rebounds, 14 assists, 5 forced turnovers, 5 blocks and 2 steals. Jones led the way with 26 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists while shooting 8-of-15 from the field and 4-of-8 from beyond the arc. Dandridge (11) and Tomlin (10) also finished with double-figure points.

Wichita State shot 36% from the field and 39% from the 3-point line. It also collected 10 offensive rebounds, 10 assists, 10 points off turnovers, 9 steals and 7 blocks. Mills’ club lost the game despite leading for nearly 38 minutes and not trailing until the game’s final minute. Colby Rogers led the Shockers with 19 points on 7-for-13 shooting.

Rogers had another impressive showing during Wednesday’s 88-81 win over Rice in the AAC Tournament. He put up 22 points and 4 assists while shooting 8-for-18 from the field and 5-for-9 from 3-point range. Ronnie DeGray III also stood out with 15 points and 8 rebounds, and Bijan Cortes finished with 12 points and 5 assists on 2-for-2 perimeter shooting. The Shockers shot 50% from the field and 52.4% from the 3-point line as a team against the Owls.

Wichita State’s currently ranked No. 157 in both KenPom and the NCAA’s NET rankings. It’s also slotted at No. 198 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 130 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to the former metric.

The Prediction

Memphis handles its business and advances to the AAC quarterfinals.

It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season, but the Tigers should still win this one with relative ease. The Shockers are one of the least efficient teams in the league, and Hardaway’s club will likely have a field day against a defense that just allowed Rice to score 81 points.

Expect Memphis to set up a Friday afternoon rubber match with UAB.